FL-St. Pete: Crist +1

[_.]

Strangely this poll has an overly Republican sample size by party registration.

Unfortunately, it didn't sample anything by the presidential vote in 2020 (which really sucks and puts great strain on the veracity of this poll).


This pollster has a B+ rating from FiveThirtyEight.

In the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, it underestimated the Republican margin by 4.5%
In the 2018 U.S. Senate Election in FL, it underestimated the Republican margin by 3.8%
In the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election, it underestimated the Republican margin by 4.5%

All things considered, this isn't a bad poll for Crist. If this poll underestimates the Republican margin again by 4%, he would be down by only 3%.

[_.]

On the other hand, Nikki Fried is getting FRIED      :

If the election for Governor of Florida were held today, and the candidates
were Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Charlie Crist, who would
you vote for?

Ron DeSantis: 43.8%
Charlie Crist: 45.3%
Undecided: 10.8%

If the election for Governor of Florida were held today, and the candidates
were Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Nikki Fried, who would
you vote for?

Ron DeSantis: 45.1%
Nikki Fried: 41.8%
Undecided: 13.1%

[_.]

This same poll last year:

If this garbage poll is the best hope Democrats have in Florida I am not worried one bit.

Stupid gotcha — you cherry-picked their poll of Pinellas County instead of their final general election poll, which was 49-48 D (within the margin of error, and closer than most national pollsters). They're not perfect, especially when polling small geographies like a county or city, but they're a better outfit than most.

They predicted Biden winning Florida by 6.

My case is closed.

Their final poll conducted in November had Biden up by 1% in Florida

49% Biden
48% Trump

They tend to underestimate Republican margins by 4% (going back to 2018 as well)

[_.]

Lol yet DeSantis is winning Tampa in this very poll

Yes. The poll doesn't ask about Tampa, but the Tampa media market, and the Tampa media market is very Republican, including Polk, Pasco, Hernando, Sarasota, Manatee, Highlands, and Citrus Counties as well as Pinellas and Hillsborough.

It would be a massive upset if a Democrat ever were to win the Tampa Media Market.

[_.]

Barely thirty minutes and we're already pushing page two lol

And this is over a year out from the election!

[_.]

This poll is even worse when accounting for by region.

It says it has DeSantis up by 2% in Tampa Bay, 51% in Palm Beach!, and tied in Orlando. Down big in Miami tho. Crist getting 20% of the Republican vote as well. This makes no senee. What a terrible poll.

If you look closer, you will notice that it classifies regions by media market.

This is a map of Florida's media markets:

In the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, they went as follows:

Miami Media Market: D+17 (58% Biden, 41% Trump)
Palm Beach Media Market: D+4 (52% Biden, 48% Trump)
Fort Myers Media Market: R+25 (38% Biden, 63% Trump)
Tampa Bay Media Market: R+9 (45% Biden, 54% Trump)
Orlando Media Market: R+3 (48% Biden, 51% Trump)
Jacksonville Media Market: R+16 (41% Biden, 57% Trump)
Gainesville Media Market: D+9 (54% Biden, 45% Trump)
Tallahassee Media Market: D+5 (52% Biden, 47% Trump)
Panama City Media Market: R+39 (30% Biden, 69% Trump)
Pensacola Media Market: R+31 (34% Biden, 65% Trump)


This is how their final 2020 Presidential poll performed by media market:

Miami Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 13%
Palm Beach Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 1%
Fort Myers Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 8%
Tampa Bay Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 7%
Orlando Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 5%
Jacksonville Media Market: Underestimated the Democratic margin by 5%
Gainesville Media Market: Underestimated the Democratic margin by 21%
Tallahassee Media Market: Underestimated the Democratic margin by 4%
Panama City Media Market: Underestimated the Democratic margin by 19%
Pensacola Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 14%


Make of this how you will.