Economist/YouGov weekly poll of various politicos, including 2024 candidates (user search)
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  Economist/YouGov weekly poll of various politicos, including 2024 candidates (search mode)
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Author Topic: Economist/YouGov weekly poll of various politicos, including 2024 candidates  (Read 6936 times)
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Abdullah
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« on: May 06, 2021, 10:28:36 AM »
« edited: May 06, 2021, 11:18:23 AM by Abdullah »

19% of African-Americans have a favorable opinion of Tim Scott (opposed to only 13% seeing Donald Trump favorably). This could make Tim Scott a potentially very dangerous candidate. After all, just chipping away a small percentage of African-Americans from the Democrats in Detroit and Philadelphia will turn the states they're in red fast.

Also, Joe Manchin's favorability rating among Trump voters is 42% favorable - 27% unfavorable, as opposed to 27% favorable - 41% unfavorable amongst Biden voters.  Angry  Angry  Angry



Here are more breakdowns of favorability ratings:

Barack Obama: 51% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable (+11%)
Among Biden voters: 89% Favorable, 8% Unfavorable (+81%)
Among Trump voters: 17% Favorable, 81% Unfavorable (-64%)

Michelle Obama: 51% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable (+11%)
Among Biden voters: 86% Favorable, 10% Unfavorable (+76%)
Among Trump voters: 16% Favorable, 81% Unfavorable (-65%)

Tim Scott: 37% Favorable, 26% Unfavorable (+11%)
Among Biden voters: 22% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable (-23%)
Among Trump voters: 67% Favorable, 9% Unfavorable (+58%)

Joe Biden: 49% Favorable, 43% Unfavorable (+6%)
Among Biden voters: 87% Favorable, 12% Unfavorable (+75%)
Among Trump voters: 15% Favorable, 84% Unfavorable (-69%)

Ron DeSantis: 34% Favorable, 32% Unfavorable (+2%)
Among Biden voters: 16% Favorable, 60% Unfavorable (-44%)
Among Trump voters: 68% Favorable, 11% Unfavorable (+57%)

Nikki Haley: 33% Favorable, 32% Unfavorable (+1%)
Among Biden voters: 20% Favorable, 54% Unfavorable (-34%)
Among Trump voters: 61% Favorable, 16% Unfavorable (+45%)

Joe Manchin: 29% Favorable, 32% Unfavorable (-3%)
Among Biden voters: 27% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable (-14%)
Among Trump voters: 42% Favorable, 27% Unfavorable (+15%)

Kamala Harris: 41% Favorable, 49% Unfavorable (-8%)
Among Biden voters: 78% Favorable, 17% Unfavorable (+61%)
Among Trump voters: 9% Favorable, 88% Unfavorable (-79%)

Donald Trump: 40% Favorable, 51% Unfavorable (-11%)
Among Biden voters: 13% Favorable, 84% Unfavorable (-71%)
Among Trump voters: 81% Favorable, 16% Unfavorable (+65%)



So I did the math, and here's what the favorability ratings would look like if all Biden voters and all Trump voters had opinions on a candidate, so we can un-skew the results from any effects of having more voters of a particular party having an opinion on a candidate (Ex: More Republicans know about Ron DeSantis than Democrats, so in total, his favorability rating is boosted higher) (extrapolating from the data we already have) (using an assumed sample of 52.3% Biden - 47.7% Trump):

Tim Scott: 59.2% Favorable, 40.8% Unfavorable (+18.4%)
Barack Obama: 56.3% Favorable, 43.7% Unfavorable (+12.6%)
Michelle Obama: 54.7% Favorable, 45.3% Unfavorable (+9.4%)
Joe Biden: 53.2% Favorable, 46.8% Unfavorable (+6.4%)
Ron DeSantis: 52.1% Favorable, 47.9% Unfavorable (+4.2%)
Nikki Haley: 51.9% Favorable, 48.1% Unfavorable (+3.8%)
Joe Manchin: 49.8% Favorable, 50.2% Unfavorable (-0.4%)
Kamala Harris: 47.4% Favorable, 52.6% Unfavorable (-5.2%)
Donald Trump: 46.8% Favorable, 53.2% Unfavorable (-6.4%)

It really looks like Tim Scott is a very strong candidate TBH. He's got a lot more favorability from Democrats than the average Republican. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, scores poorly with Democrats and has ended up in the negatives.
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Abdullah
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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2021, 11:02:29 AM »
« Edited: May 06, 2021, 11:06:42 AM by Abdullah »


Fixed check again
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Abdullah
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Posts: 2,845
United States
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2021, 11:29:04 PM »

Tim Scott seems like he could be the Kamala Harris of 2024; he probably doesn't have the depth of support necessary to win the presidential nomination, but it seems almost inevitable that he'll wind up on the VP shortlist. You could probably say the same about Haley, but I wonder if Scott is a little more adept at walking the Trump tightrope.

I disagree with this comparison if you're speaking in terms of how unpopular they'd be (I do agree that Scott's on the VP shortlist though). See, Tim Scott doesn't inspire visceral hatred from Democrats the same way Kamala Harris does with Republicans, while he does score much more favorably in general with Biddn voters. And Tim Scott also has managed to keep very high favorability ratings even among Republicans, while that's another weak point of Kamala's (keeping favorability among her own party).
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