Which State was most disappointing for Dems in 2020? (user search)
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  Which State was most disappointing for Dems in 2020? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Which State was most disappointing for Dems in 2020?  (Read 3100 times)
Oregon Eagle Politics
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« on: March 28, 2021, 01:02:58 PM »

It's pretty obvious that GA was the most disappointing state for Rs last year, but which state was most disappointing for Ds? Texas? Florida? Ohio?
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2021, 07:24:13 PM »

It's pretty obvious that GA was the most disappointing state for Rs last year, but which state was most disappointing for Ds? Texas? Florida? Ohio?

I'm not even sure about that. A Georgia and Arizona loss had obviously been apparent.
I think it hurt the GOP election strategists much more that they lost each of the three competitive blue-collar WWC states MI, PA and WI.

As for the Democrats: The correct answer is, obviously, North Carolina, as the Democrats had promised themselves a win there.
The runner-up is Florida, not because they would have built any false hopes up there, but because no Democratic campaign strategist had expected such a massive swing of the Cuban Americans in favor of Trump.
Eh, GA Dems flipped both Senate Seats and GA was seen as less likely to flip than AZ. The Swings in Suburban ATL were better for Dems than in Suburban Phoenix.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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Posts: 2,443
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« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2021, 09:08:00 PM »

It's pretty obvious that GA was the most disappointing state for Rs last year, but which state was most disappointing for Ds? Texas? Florida? Ohio?

I'm not even sure about that. A Georgia and Arizona loss had obviously been apparent.
I think it hurt the GOP election strategists much more that they lost each of the three competitive blue-collar WWC states MI, PA and WI.

As for the Democrats: The correct answer is, obviously, North Carolina, as the Democrats had promised themselves a win there.
The runner-up is Florida, not because they would have built any false hopes up there, but because no Democratic campaign strategist had expected such a massive swing of the Cuban Americans in favor of Trump.
Eh, GA Dems flipped both Senate Seats and GA was seen as less likely to flip than AZ. The Swings in Suburban ATL were better for Dems than in Suburban Phoenix.

I understand that Georgia was the MVP of the latest election cycle, but technically, you asked for the most disappointing state in 2020, but the GA Senate runoffs took place in 2021, strictly speaking.
Yeah I guess so.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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Posts: 2,443
United States


« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2021, 04:30:39 PM »

While far from the most disappointing for Dems PA has to be up there. Obviously winning the state back in the presidential after the GOP finally got their white whale in 2016 was massive. However, was legit hope that Ds could take back the state house and even have an outside shot at taking PA-10 (was within 4 points in 2018+the growing Harrisburg suburbs gave Dems legit hope to take down Perry). Instead, Rs actually expanded their majority in the state legislature, unseated both Ahmad and Torsella (the latter being a real shocker), and came within shouting distance of flipping both PA-07 and PA-08. Maybe it was a false hope all along as the PA state GOP was closing the infrastructure gap with Dems, though on election night it certainly was disappointing.

What about Wisconsin? Biden may have won, but other than that, it was underwhelming:

-Biden was supposed to cruise to victory, instead he barely squeaked by.
-Trump won Kenosha and Columbia again.
-WI-03 didn’t flip back at the presidential level, and Trump’s margin actually grew from 2016.
-Ron Kind barely held on.
-Every House Republican won their race by 18 points or more.
-Democrats lost two seats in the State Senate, and barely held onto a third.

Or Ohio:

-Trump’s margin was virtually unchanged from 2016’s.
-He flipped Mahoning and Lorain, and expanded his margins in Trumbull and Ashtabula.
-Biden did worse in Cuyahoga than Clinton did.
-Trump won all 12 house seats he carried in 2016 again.
-Steve Chabot won by 7 points, and every other house Republican won by double digits.
-Tim Ryan’s house race only barely missed being the closest in the state.
-Democrats failed to flip a deep-blue State Seat seat by about 100 votes, and did not come close in any other R-held seat.
-Meanwhile, the one Democrat in a red State Senate seat lost his race.
TBF It's fairly impressive Biden Flipped Wisconsin, given Evers barely won and WI Ds overall didn't have a very good year in 2018, aside from Tammy Baldwin. I agree with you on OH, it was very disappointing for Dems in 2020. I thought Lorain would stay blue given the national trend of Working-Class suburbs swinging blue (Macomb County, Anoka County, Westmoreland County, Etc.)
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