Which State was most disappointing for Dems in 2020?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

It's pretty obvious that GA was the most disappointing state for Rs last year, but which state was most disappointing for Ds? Texas? Florida? Ohio?

[here2view]

North Carolina for both the presidential and senate races

[If my soul was made of stone]

NC for results, FL for under-the-hood movement. No one worth their salt was betting anything on IA or OH.

[redjohn]

NC, but close behind is how close WI+PA+MI were, compared to Obama's election results. Many polls were predicting a sort of reversion to 2012 in the midwest, which would've been promising not just for Presidential elections but also for Congressional races and local races in 2022. Instead, most of the 2016 midwestern swing states remained pretty close (except for MN), and OH+IA drifted further away.

[Tekken_Guy]

North Carolina. I was confident it would flip, which is something I couldn't even say for Florida.

[Matty]

Florida and Ohio.

[Da2017]

Florida

[SnowLabrador]

North Carolina. F*** you, Cal Cunningham.

[Asta]

WI and NV

WI had a big covid surge, which I thought would be enough to give Biden about 3-4 point win. Seeing a nail biter gave me a big sigh.

NV stayed pretty much the same in margin. And given its diverse demographics, it's supposed to be a blue leaning state, not a purple one at least on paper. Seeing its Republican trend gives me the pessimism that the GOP nominee can add it to their column permanently starting in 2024.

[Calthrina950]

A five-way tie between North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa. Although Cooper was reelected in North Carolina and Democrats gained two seats thanks to redistricting, Biden and Cunningham both narrowly lost. I believe that the latter would have won without his sex scandal, and I think he may have helped drag Biden down as well, although Cooper's popularity and incumbency enabled him to hold on. In Florida, the Democrats lost two congressional districts, both of which had been carried by Clinton, and one of which (FL-26) actually flipped to Trump. Moreover, there was the massive swing in Trump's favor in Miami-Dade County (and a smaller swing in Osceola County), which overrode Biden's gains in Seminole, Duval, and Pinellas, and enabled Trump to expand upon his margin of victory. Florida is a stubbornly Lean R state in presidential elections now, and Likely/Safe R in statewide races.

In Texas, Democrats had hopes of gaining control of the Texas House, potentially picking up at least three or four congressional districts, and scoring an upset in either the presidential or Senatorial races. None of these came to pass, and Republicans held one of Biden's districts at the congressional level (TX-24, the only district Biden flipped), while TX-23 stayed in Republican hands and flipped to Trump at the presidential level. The Rio Grande Valley swung heavily Republican, with Vicente Gonzalez winning by a narrow margin, and both Filemon Vela and Henry Cuellar losing ground compared to 2018, while Cornyn won reelection easily and Trump carried the state by a solid 5% margin. Democrats basically stagnated in Harris County, although they did flip Hays, Williamson, and Tarrant, providing indicators that the state will become swing territory at some point within the next few cycles.

In Ohio, Biden lost Mahoning and Lorain Counties, which Clinton had narrowly carried in 2016, and failed to flip Delaware County, despite making gains there. The hopes that Ohio would retain its bellwether status, as evidenced by Biden's last-minute visits to the state, turned out not to be. Moreover, Tim Ryan's margin of victory fell into the single digits, further evidencing the long-term trend of formerly WWC Northeastern Ohio away from the Party. And as for Iowa, Democrats lost two congressional districts, barely held the third, and fell short in both the Senatorial and presidential races. That state is now also gone for them.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Moreover, there was the massive swing in Trump's favor in Miami-Dade County (and a smaller swing in Osceola County), which overrode Biden's gains in Seminole, Duval, and Pinellas, and enabled Trump to expand upon his margin of victory.

Even if Miami-Dade and Osceola had voted exactly like 2016 with 2020's turnout, it wouldn't have been enough to win the state. The raw votes in counties like Hernando, Pasco (which Gore won in 2000!), Polk, and Volusia are just too massive nowadays.

The swings in Duval, Seminole, and the more urbanized parts of the panhandle were strong, but the performance in Pinellas was quite underwhelming. Trump still performed quite comfortably outside of St. Petersburg.

[Calthrina950]

Moreover, there was the massive swing in Trump's favor in Miami-Dade County (and a smaller swing in Osceola County), which overrode Biden's gains in Seminole, Duval, and Pinellas, and enabled Trump to expand upon his margin of victory.

Even if Miami-Dade and Osceola had voted exactly like 2016 with 2020's turnout, it wouldn't have been enough to win the state. The raw votes in counties like Hernando, Pasco (which Gore won in 2000!), Polk, and Volusia are just too massive nowadays.

The swings in Duval, Seminole, and the more urbanized parts of the panhandle were strong, but the performance in Pinellas was quite underwhelming. Trump still performed quite comfortably outside of St. Petersburg.

I said that Trump's gains in Miami-Dade County expanded upon his margin of victory. If Miami-Dade and Osceola had voted like 2016, I think Florida as a whole would have had a stronger swing towards Biden, perhaps enough for him to win the state by a Obama 2012-esque margin. Obviously, we will never know for certain.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida and North Carolina for two different reasons: the absolutely embarrassing performance and the stubborn closeness respectively.

Though North Carolina is probably the better answer because we lost what was just about the only other state in reality where Democrats had any chance in netting the Senate seat.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It's pretty obvious that GA was the most disappointing state for Rs last year, but which state was most disappointing for Ds? Texas? Florida? Ohio?

I'm not even sure about that. A Georgia and Arizona loss had obviously been apparent.
I think it hurt the GOP election strategists much more that they lost each of the three competitive blue-collar WWC states MI, PA and WI.

As for the Democrats: The correct answer is, obviously, North Carolina, as the Democrats had promised themselves a win there.
The runner-up is Florida, not because they would have built any false hopes up there, but because no Democratic campaign strategist had expected such a massive swing of the Cuban Americans in favor of Trump.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

It's pretty obvious that GA was the most disappointing state for Rs last year, but which state was most disappointing for Ds? Texas? Florida? Ohio?

I'm not even sure about that. A Georgia and Arizona loss had obviously been apparent.
I think it hurt the GOP election strategists much more that they lost each of the three competitive blue-collar WWC states MI, PA and WI.

As for the Democrats: The correct answer is, obviously, North Carolina, as the Democrats had promised themselves a win there.
The runner-up is Florida, not because they would have built any false hopes up there, but because no Democratic campaign strategist had expected such a massive swing of the Cuban Americans in favor of Trump.

Eh, GA Dems flipped both Senate Seats and GA was seen as less likely to flip than AZ. The Swings in Suburban ATL were better for Dems than in Suburban Phoenix.

[Pericles]

Texas offered so much false hope in 2020-there were up to 10 Republican House seats that were thought to be flippable, flipping the state House to gain some redistricting and policy influence, a potentially competitive Senate race, and getting the ultimate symbolic presidential flip. No other state offered so much and then delivered so little. Plus, the RGV swing was dramatic and goes against the party's narrative.

The single easiest and most consequential result to change would be Cal Cunningham's loss though.

[sting in the rafters]

While far from the most disappointing for Dems PA has to be up there. Obviously winning the state back in the presidential after the GOP finally got their white whale in 2016 was massive. However, was legit hope that Ds could take back the state house and even have an outside shot at taking PA-10 (was within 4 points in 2018+the growing Harrisburg suburbs gave Dems legit hope to take down Perry). Instead, Rs actually expanded their majority in the state legislature, unseated both Ahmad and Torsella (the latter being a real shocker), and came within shouting distance of flipping both PA-07 and PA-08. Maybe it was a false hope all along as the PA state GOP was closing the infrastructure gap with Dems, though on election night it certainly was disappointing.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It's pretty obvious that GA was the most disappointing state for Rs last year, but which state was most disappointing for Ds? Texas? Florida? Ohio?

I'm not even sure about that. A Georgia and Arizona loss had obviously been apparent.
I think it hurt the GOP election strategists much more that they lost each of the three competitive blue-collar WWC states MI, PA and WI.

As for the Democrats: The correct answer is, obviously, North Carolina, as the Democrats had promised themselves a win there.
The runner-up is Florida, not because they would have built any false hopes up there, but because no Democratic campaign strategist had expected such a massive swing of the Cuban Americans in favor of Trump.

Eh, GA Dems flipped both Senate Seats and GA was seen as less likely to flip than AZ. The Swings in Suburban ATL were better for Dems than in Suburban Phoenix.

I understand that Georgia was the MVP of the latest election cycle, but technically, you asked for the most disappointing state in 2020, but the GA Senate runoffs took place in 2021, strictly speaking.

[CookieDamage]

NC because we lost those electoral votes and the senate thing we all thought we'd win.

TX because there was some late movement that ended up not being enough.

[Roll Roons]

Relative to expectations, I'd say Texas. People just got so carried away, not helped by horrible polls.

But there was a lot of wishful thinking at play. There was a DCCC poll of TX-03 showing Biden up by 11 and the Democratic House candidate up by 2. The source should have been enough to make people disregard it, but people still chose to believe it as a sign that bLuE TeXaS iS InEvItAbLe tHiS YeAr bEcAuSe tReNdS or something.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

It's pretty obvious that GA was the most disappointing state for Rs last year, but which state was most disappointing for Ds? Texas? Florida? Ohio?

I'm not even sure about that. A Georgia and Arizona loss had obviously been apparent.
I think it hurt the GOP election strategists much more that they lost each of the three competitive blue-collar WWC states MI, PA and WI.

As for the Democrats: The correct answer is, obviously, North Carolina, as the Democrats had promised themselves a win there.
The runner-up is Florida, not because they would have built any false hopes up there, but because no Democratic campaign strategist had expected such a massive swing of the Cuban Americans in favor of Trump.

Eh, GA Dems flipped both Senate Seats and GA was seen as less likely to flip than AZ. The Swings in Suburban ATL were better for Dems than in Suburban Phoenix.

I understand that Georgia was the MVP of the latest election cycle, but technically, you asked for the most disappointing state in 2020, but the GA Senate runoffs took place in 2021, strictly speaking.

Yeah I guess so.

[Mr. Smith]

Texas.

Dems were overperforming polls left and right in the state, and they seemed primed to make gains. The near opposite happened.

[Tekken_Guy]

While far from the most disappointing for Dems PA has to be up there. Obviously winning the state back in the presidential after the GOP finally got their white whale in 2016 was massive. However, was legit hope that Ds could take back the state house and even have an outside shot at taking PA-10 (was within 4 points in 2018+the growing Harrisburg suburbs gave Dems legit hope to take down Perry). Instead, Rs actually expanded their majority in the state legislature, unseated both Ahmad and Torsella (the latter being a real shocker), and came within shouting distance of flipping both PA-07 and PA-08. Maybe it was a false hope all along as the PA state GOP was closing the infrastructure gap with Dems, though on election night it certainly was disappointing.

What about Wisconsin? Biden may have won, but other than that, it was underwhelming:

-Biden was supposed to cruise to victory, instead he barely squeaked by.
-Trump won Kenosha and Columbia again.
-WI-03 didn’t flip back at the presidential level, and Trump’s margin actually grew from 2016.
-Ron Kind barely held on.
-Every House Republican won their race by 18 points or more.
-Democrats lost two seats in the State Senate, and barely held onto a third.

Or Ohio:

-Trump’s margin was virtually unchanged from 2016’s.
-He flipped Mahoning and Lorain, and expanded his margins in Trumbull and Ashtabula.
-Biden did worse in Cuyahoga than Clinton did.
-Trump won all 12 house seats he carried in 2016 again.
-Steve Chabot won by 7 points, and every other house Republican won by double digits.
-Tim Ryan’s house race only barely missed being the closest in the state.
-Democrats failed to flip a deep-blue State Seat seat by about 100 votes, and did not come close in any other R-held seat.
-Meanwhile, the one Democrat in a red State Senate seat lost his race.

[sting in the rafters]

While far from the most disappointing for Dems PA has to be up there. Obviously winning the state back in the presidential after the GOP finally got their white whale in 2016 was massive. However, was legit hope that Ds could take back the state house and even have an outside shot at taking PA-10 (was within 4 points in 2018+the growing Harrisburg suburbs gave Dems legit hope to take down Perry). Instead, Rs actually expanded their majority in the state legislature, unseated both Ahmad and Torsella (the latter being a real shocker), and came within shouting distance of flipping both PA-07 and PA-08. Maybe it was a false hope all along as the PA state GOP was closing the infrastructure gap with Dems, though on election night it certainly was disappointing.

What about Wisconsin? Biden may have won, but other than that, it was underwhelming:

-Biden was supposed to cruise to victory, instead he barely squeaked by.
-Trump won Kenosha and Columbia again.
-WI-03 didn’t flip back at the presidential level, and Trump’s margin actually grew from 2016.
-Ron Kind barely held on.
-Every House Republican won their race by 18 points or more.
-Democrats lost two seats in the State Senate, and barely held onto a third.

Or Ohio:

-Trump’s margin was virtually unchanged from 2016’s.
-He flipped Mahoning and Lorain, and expanded his margins in Trumbull and Ashtabula.
-Biden did worse in Cuyahoga than Clinton did.
-Trump won all 12 house seats he carried in 2016 again.
-Steve Chabot won by 7 points, and every other house Republican won by double digits.
-Tim Ryan’s house race only barely missed being the closest in the state.
-Democrats failed to flip a deep-blue State Seat seat by about 100 votes, and did not come close in any other R-held seat.
-Meanwhile, the one Democrat in a red State Senate seat lost his race.

Agreed on WI but I accepted OH was gone the moment Sherrod Brown’s margin in 2018 was to the right of the national house vote in 2018. PA has the growth in Philly burbs+the tech bubble in Pittsburgh to mitigate Ds losses in Appalachia, OH simply doesn’t.

[Tekken_Guy]

While far from the most disappointing for Dems PA has to be up there. Obviously winning the state back in the presidential after the GOP finally got their white whale in 2016 was massive. However, was legit hope that Ds could take back the state house and even have an outside shot at taking PA-10 (was within 4 points in 2018+the growing Harrisburg suburbs gave Dems legit hope to take down Perry). Instead, Rs actually expanded their majority in the state legislature, unseated both Ahmad and Torsella (the latter being a real shocker), and came within shouting distance of flipping both PA-07 and PA-08. Maybe it was a false hope all along as the PA state GOP was closing the infrastructure gap with Dems, though on election night it certainly was disappointing.

What about Wisconsin? Biden may have won, but other than that, it was underwhelming:

-Biden was supposed to cruise to victory, instead he barely squeaked by.
-Trump won Kenosha and Columbia again.
-WI-03 didn’t flip back at the presidential level, and Trump’s margin actually grew from 2016.
-Ron Kind barely held on.
-Every House Republican won their race by 18 points or more.
-Democrats lost two seats in the State Senate, and barely held onto a third.

Or Ohio:

-Trump’s margin was virtually unchanged from 2016’s.
-He flipped Mahoning and Lorain, and expanded his margins in Trumbull and Ashtabula.
-Biden did worse in Cuyahoga than Clinton did.
-Trump won all 12 house seats he carried in 2016 again.
-Steve Chabot won by 7 points, and every other house Republican won by double digits.
-Tim Ryan’s house race only barely missed being the closest in the state.
-Democrats failed to flip a deep-blue State Seat seat by about 100 votes, and did not come close in any other R-held seat.
-Meanwhile, the one Democrat in a red State Senate seat lost his race.

Agreed on WI but I accepted OH was gone the moment Sherrod Brown’s margin in 2018 was to the right of the national house vote in 2018. PA has the growth in Philly burbs+the tech bubble in Pittsburgh to mitigate Ds losses in Appalachia, OH simply doesn’t.

Sherrod Brown will lose in 2024.