Are People underestimating Democratic Chances at WI in 2024?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I have seen people say that Democrats are likely to lose WI in 2024, but I disagree.

One argument for people who say WI Dems are likely to lose is "Biden underperformed Obama, so WI Dems are doomed." Obama was a uniquely strong candidate for the midwest. Biden did better than Gore/Kerry/H. Clinton in WI. Some people say that WI has shifted republican relative to the nation over the decades, but WI Voted to the right of the nation in 2016, 2000, and 1992, along with 2020. How states have voted relative to the nation doesn't matter anyway, as TX/CA have shifted 20% to the left since 2004. WI may have voted to the right of the nation, but Biden won all of WI's 10 EVs, and that is what matters.

Another argument is "Biden fought very hard to win WI, and he barely won it." Trump fought very hard in WI too, and he campaigned more than Biden in WI. Trump barely paid attention to WI in 2016, but he still won it. Romney fought very hard to win OH, but he lost it, but almost every Republlican won it in the future. I have found little evidence that where candidates "try" matters. Biden didn't spend much many in GA, but he dumped millions into Florida. Guess which voted Dem in 2020.

Democrats also have many areas which they could improve upon in WI. Milwaukee County went from Gore+20 to Biden+40 and may get bluer. Dane is growing in population, and Biden got 120K more votes than Gore. It remains to be seen as to whether or not Trump was a uniquely good fit for the Driftless, but almost no republicans have beat his performance their since 2016, and even some people like Ron Johnson who overperformed Trump in 2016/2010 or Scott Walker who overperformed Trump in 2010/2012/2014 underperformed Trump in the driftless area.

Feel free to disagree, I am interested in hearing other peoples opinions.