Likely D. 2028 is likely R if Biden is re elected or a non Trump R were to win 2024.
Yeah I am like 95% positive that the party that wins in 2024 loses in 2028.
Why? I wouldn’t be too surprised if Democrats win both 2024 and 2028.
Unless Biden is Ronald Reagan 1988 or Bill Clinton 2000 levels popular and someone stronger than Harris emerges as the Democratic nominee, I don't see the Democrats holding on for a third term after a Biden win in 2024. Having said that, like I said I think a non Trump R is favored to hold on in 2028.
I could conceivably see Trump being nominated both in 2024 and 2028, and on account of being Trump, will lose Bose times.