TheReckoning
Junior Chimp
Posts: 6,807
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« on: February 25, 2021, 12:42:48 AM » |
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« edited: February 25, 2021, 03:07:52 AM by TheReckoning »
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Let’s look at 3 states which are nearby and similar to IL- Ohio, which has rust belt similarities, Iowa, which has rural white similarities, and Wisconsin, which is close in urbanization, and their results compared to the NPV in 2004 and 2020.
2004 IA: D+1.8
2020 IA: R+12.6
Trend: R+14.4
2004 OH: D+0.4
2020 IA: R+12.5
Trend: R+12.9
2004 WI: D+2.8
2020 WI: R+3.8
Trend: R+6.6
Average out these trends, and that’s an average of trending 11.3 points over 16 years. Now let’s look at IL in 2020, and a hypothetical swing of 11.3 points rightward in another 16 years (Keep in mind IL actually trended 2.4 points rightward in 2020- so this is by no means far-fetched):
2020 IL: D+12.5
2036 IL: D+1.2
1.2 points left to the nation is almost dead even. I mean, MI was 2 points rightward in 2020, and people think the state leans Democrat.
So what do you think? They’re were other nearby states that I could’ve included as well in this analysis (such as MO and MI) but I didn’t because they seemed to either not be similar to IL, or pretty similar to WI, IA, or OH.
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