Given the trends of nearby states, could IL become competitive in the next 1-2 decades?

[TheReckoning]

Let’s look at 3 states which are nearby and similar to IL- Ohio, which has rust belt similarities, Iowa, which has rural white similarities, and Wisconsin, which is close in urbanization, and their results compared to the NPV in 2004 and 2020.

2004 IA: D+1.8
2020 IA: R+12.6
Trend: R+14.4

2004 OH: D+0.4
2020 IA: R+12.5
Trend: R+12.9

2004 WI: D+2.8
2020 WI: R+3.8
Trend: R+6.6

Average out these trends, and that’s an average of trending 11.3 points over 16 years. Now let’s look at IL in 2020, and a hypothetical swing of 11.3 points rightward in another 16 years (Keep in mind IL actually trended 2.4 points rightward in 2020- so this is by no means far-fetched):

2020 IL: D+12.5
2036 IL: D+1.2

1.2 points left to the nation is almost dead even. I mean, MI was 2 points rightward in 2020, and people think the state leans Democrat.

So what do you think? They’re were other nearby states that I could’ve included as well in this analysis (such as MO and MI) but I didn’t because they seemed to either not be similar to IL, or pretty similar to WI, IA, or OH.

[Roll Roons]

Of course. If the Midwest continues trending right, the same trends are bound to affect the state that anchors the region. Plus you don't have a lot of young liberals moving to Chicago like you do with Austin, Atlanta, Denver, Nashville or even Madison.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Jimmie is going to love this thread.

[pppolitics]

Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin are NOT similar to Illinois.

In college attainment (Bachelor's or higher), Illinois is the 12th most educated state in the nation.

Wisconsin is 26th, Iowa is 35th, and Ohio is 36th.

[jamestroll]

Jimmie is going to love this thread.

Yes because IL has the exact same demographics as all of its surrounding states.


Unironically, I do rate IL-Gov 2022 as Lean Dem for now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Dems can't maintain their margins in Chicago land, sure. However, unlike WI, OH, or IA, reddening of rural areas probably won't be enough to flip the state in a normal cycle, but could make it closer.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Republicans would need to make significant gains with college educated whites as well hold their ground with non-college ones to make this possible.

[redjohn]

The only way it becomes remotely competitive is if Republicans make major inroads in the Chicago suburbs and that's not happening with the authoritarian direction of the GOP. They can win as many non-educated white voters outside of the Chicago area as they want, it doesn't matter until their platform changes to appeal more to suburban voters. Which obviously is not happening unless the GOP collapses, which it won't.