Predict KY-GOV

[EastwoodS]

54-46 Beshear
KY AG General: 60-40 R
KY SOS: 66-34R
The other ones..your typical 62-38 R results..

[EastwoodS]

I think I'm going down to Beshear +5. Would like to see a couple more final polls

[EastwoodS]

This is one of those races where I'm really uncertain of the margin. My take is that Cameron is going to outperform the most Beshear friendly poll (aside from Emerson's Beshear+16). It seems that it's the Beshear+8 poll so I think Beshear will not get as high as +9. It *could* be the case that it ends up Beshear+6 like the WPA Intel / Club For Growth poll, but my gut tells me Cameron will outperform that one by a little bit. So I'll take the midpoint between Beshear+2 (from the recent co/efficient poll) and Beshear+6, which is Beshear+4.

There does seem to be ~10% of a chance that Cameron wins by a very slight margin. I'll be surprised if Cameron pulls off a win by more than 1%.

the averages of all the polls on this race is an average of about Beshear +6.75%. The doesn't seem too unreasonable.

[EastwoodS]

52-48 Beshear

[EastwoodS]

51-49 Beshear. That is my final prediction.

[EastwoodS]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 925,622, 51.25%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,671, 48.24%
(Write-in) - 90, <1%

Total vote estimate: 1,805,896 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.

Talented wow