How would Buttigieg have done in the midwest rust belt states in the General Election?

[Motorcity]

Buttigieg loses badly, Trump wins comfortably.

The youth hated him. They’ll be some older black voters who stay home, black churches can be quite homophobic. Same with Hispanics. He had no appeal to the WWC. Plus he’s gay, so some suburban moms won’t like it.

[Motorcity]

Worse than Biden. You can't win a General Election if you can't appeal to African Americans.

Biden did worse than Hillary with them, hell he did worse than John Freaking Kerry and had to rely much more on mea culpa oldies and college educated whites to make up that difference.

I'd call it a wash at face value, but that doesn't account for what Trump could do...which to Biden's credit, Trump actually flubbed on.

This is kinda inaccurate

Biden won more raw black votes than Hillary, Kerry, even Obama!

The turnout increased from 55 to 67%!

The average first time black voter was slightly more republican than the average traditional black voter. We are only talking a few points

It’s like this. In 2016, Hillary got 90 black votes and Trump got 10

In 2020, Biden got 132 and Trump got 18. The electorate increased to 150 votes and Biden got 88%.

Trump didn’t win any “converts”. He just had more than expected appeal among first time black voters

[Motorcity]

I don't think he'd be a disaster, but he'd certainly do worse than Biden.

To an extent I think people are underestimating the levels partisanship in this country. I don't think there'd be that many people who would have a preference of Biden > Trump > other Dems.

You are right

That said, considering how close the election was, yes the "Biden>Trump>Generic D" voter was a significant factor. I do think there was a small sliver of voters who would only vote for Biden. Otherwise, Trump would have won. Maybe by a lot.

There was a reason Trump feared Biden...

[Motorcity]

Worse than Biden, but I think he would have won Wisconsin by 0.1-0.5, Michigan by 0.5-2.0, and Pennsylvania by 0.1-0.9

There is no way he does worst than Biden but wins Wisconsin.

Biden won WI/MI/PA by 0.65%, 2.8%, and 1.2%

If he loses any support, WI is gone

Plus Buttigieg, being gay, would lose some minority support so there goes AZ and GA. Boom Trump wins a second term

[Motorcity]

Worse than Biden, but I think he would have won Wisconsin by 0.1-0.5, Michigan by 0.5-2.0, and Pennsylvania by 0.1-0.9

There is no way he does worst than Biden but wins Wisconsin.

Biden won WI/MI/PA by 0.65%, 2.8%, and 1.2%

If he loses any support, WI is gone

Plus Buttigieg, being gay, would lose some minority support so there goes AZ and GA. Boom Trump wins a second term

Tammy Baldwin is way more progressive than Buttigieg and won easily in 2018 in WISCONSIN

People are FAR more relax when it comes to lesbians than gay men...