How would Buttigieg have done in the midwest rust belt states in the General Election?

[EJ24]

?

[SnowLabrador]

About the same as Biden, I'd think.

[One Term Floridian]

Significantly worse than Biden. He’s completely untested, too young and not all that likeable

[dw93]

How is this even a question? Trump likely hits 10% in OH and IA, and I'm 90% sure Trump would've held WI. Best case for Pete is he wins MI and by the skin of his teeth PA.

[Da2017]

Worse than Biden. You can't win a General Election if you can't appeal to African Americans.

[Mr. Smith]

Worse than Biden. You can't win a General Election if you can't appeal to African Americans.

Biden did worse than Hillary with them, hell he did worse than John Freaking Kerry and had to rely much more on mea culpa oldies and college educated whites to make up that difference.

I'd call it a wash at face value, but that doesn't account for what Trump could do...which to Biden's credit, Trump actually flubbed on.

[darklordoftech]

You can't win a General Election if you can't appeal to African Americans.

In that case, no Republican would ever win.

[Ritz]

I think it was David Shor who pointed out that in the state where Buttigieg had the highest name id, Iowa, he performed a couple of points better than Biden in GE matchups. He polled worse than Biden among non-whites but a bit better among white voters, a much larger share of the electorate.

[Da2017]

You can't win a General Election if you can't appeal to African Americans.

In that case, no Republican would ever win.

 Repubicans don't have to win the African American vote, but if turnout is low that does not bold well for Democrats.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If he doesn't get totally blown out.

[patzer]

He’d probably pick someone like Harris to shore up the black vote; I think he’d be a fairly good speaker and manage to attract voters. That being said, I expect the electoral map would ultimately be the same as Biden’s.

[sting in the rafters]

Loses all 3. It's an achievement in of itself that Joey turned the tide at all in the ancestrally D regions of each state. Buttigieg loses Sauk, Muskegon, Saginaw, Erie,  Northampton, maybe even Lehigh/Lackawanna.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Loses all 3. It's an achievement in of itself that Joey turned the tide at all in the ancestrally D regions of each state. Buttigieg loses Sauk, Muskegon, Saginaw, Erie,  Northampton, maybe even Lehigh/Lackawanna.

Lackawanna could fall in a particularly poor campaign, but I think that Lehigh is a bit of a stretch. Suburban trends have made it a fair bit bluer now, including in 2016, than it was in the Clinton and Bush eras. On the state and county level, it's about as blue as it's ever been.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Worse than Biden. You can't win a General Election if you can't appeal to African Americans.

Biden did worse than Hillary with them, hell he did worse than John Freaking Kerry and had to rely much more on mea culpa oldies and college educated whites to make up that difference.

Biden probably overperformed Generic D with black voters in both margin and turnout. Black voters trending R is inevitable over the long run, it's just a question of by how much and how fast.

And for all my harping on Biden, Sanders, and Bloomberg's advanced age, I also think Buttigieg would've done worse than Biden in OTL.

[sting in the rafters]

Loses all 3. It's an achievement in of itself that Joey turned the tide at all in the ancestrally D regions of each state. Buttigieg loses Sauk, Muskegon, Saginaw, Erie,  Northampton, maybe even Lehigh/Lackawanna.

Lackawanna could fall in a particularly poor campaign, but I think that Lehigh is a bit of a stretch. Suburban trends have made it a fair bit bluer now, including in 2016, than it was in the Clinton and Bush eras. On the state and county level, it's about as blue as it's ever been.

Indeed, the commuter/transplant migration to Lehigh has masked the decent amount of Obama-Trump voters (though some will still vote D down-ballot) in Allentown/Bethlehem's working-class suburbs. I agree even in a Buttigieg vs. Trump race Lehigh would be Lean D however I see a path where A) Buttigieg doesn't get the same organic support Biden has in Eastern PA, B) Black voters don't show up for him in the urban cores, C) Trump gets the same turnout from low-propensity Rs.  The corollary of course being Ds have multiple paths to victory there, Rs really only have one.

[Alben Barkley]

Worse than Biden. You can't win a General Election if you can't appeal to African Americans.

Biden did worse than Hillary with them, hell he did worse than John Freaking Kerry and had to rely much more on mea culpa oldies and college educated whites to make up that difference.

I'd call it a wash at face value, but that doesn't account for what Trump could do...which to Biden's credit, Trump actually flubbed on.

The AP Votecast results (which most agree are more accurate than the Edison results for 2020) say otherwise.

Anyway, Buttigieg would have ACTUALLY done MUCH worse. And that would be enough to sink him. Never mind he probably doesn't stop the bleeding or recover with some rural voters the way Biden did. He MIGHT do about as well with suburban voters and college-educated whites, but that wouldn't be enough by itself.

[Calthrina950]

Buttigieg would have done worse than Biden, and would have lost the election. I think Trump would have held Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Buttigieg may have still won back Michigan, but it would have been by a narrower margin, resembling that in the Senate race between James and Peters. Trump would have probably got in the low teens among black voters. Outside of the Upper Midwest, I think Trump would have held Georgia and probably Arizona also, and he would have won Florida and North Carolina by slightly more.

[Motorcity]

Buttigieg loses badly, Trump wins comfortably.

The youth hated him. They’ll be some older black voters who stay home, black churches can be quite homophobic. Same with Hispanics. He had no appeal to the WWC. Plus he’s gay, so some suburban moms won’t like it.

[Motorcity]

Worse than Biden. You can't win a General Election if you can't appeal to African Americans.

Biden did worse than Hillary with them, hell he did worse than John Freaking Kerry and had to rely much more on mea culpa oldies and college educated whites to make up that difference.

I'd call it a wash at face value, but that doesn't account for what Trump could do...which to Biden's credit, Trump actually flubbed on.

This is kinda inaccurate

Biden won more raw black votes than Hillary, Kerry, even Obama!

The turnout increased from 55 to 67%!

The average first time black voter was slightly more republican than the average traditional black voter. We are only talking a few points

It’s like this. In 2016, Hillary got 90 black votes and Trump got 10

In 2020, Biden got 132 and Trump got 18. The electorate increased to 150 votes and Biden got 88%.

Trump didn’t win any “converts”. He just had more than expected appeal among first time black voters

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Mayor Pete is from the Midwest, but he is the candidate of woke wine cave moms. NOVA, and the Bay Area would love Pete, but not the Midwest. He would probably win the NPV by a similar margin as Hillary, but he would have too many wasted votes in wealthy suburban areas like Darien, CT.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Worse than Biden, but so would every other non-Biden Democrat in the race.  

[perpetual_cynic]

Worse than Biden. You can't win a General Election if you can't appeal to African Americans.

Biden did worse than Hillary with them, hell he did worse than John Freaking Kerry and had to rely much more on mea culpa oldies and college educated whites to make up that difference.

I'd call it a wash at face value, but that doesn't account for what Trump could do...which to Biden's credit, Trump actually flubbed on.

Speaking of that, do you know how much different African-Americans voted before Obama? Did Biden do better than Gore?

[Calthrina950]

Worse than Biden. You can't win a General Election if you can't appeal to African Americans.

Biden did worse than Hillary with them, hell he did worse than John Freaking Kerry and had to rely much more on mea culpa oldies and college educated whites to make up that difference.

I'd call it a wash at face value, but that doesn't account for what Trump could do...which to Biden's credit, Trump actually flubbed on.

Speaking of that, do you know how much different African-Americans voted before Obama? Did Biden do better than Gore?

Blacks have effectively reverted to how they voted prior to Obama. Gore won blacks 90-9%, slightly outperforming Biden (who won them 87-12%), while Kerry won them 88-11% or about the same as Biden. Clinton and Carter both got in the low to mid 80s among black voters (with Perot and Anderson taking away some votes), while Mondale and Dukakis got 91% and 89% among them.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Very poorly, for reasons already explained upthread.

[R.P. McM]

I think it was David Shor who pointed out that in the state where Buttigieg had the highest name id, Iowa, he performed a couple of points better than Biden in GE matchups. He polled worse than Biden among non-whites but a bit better among white voters, a much larger share of the electorate.

Though everyone else seems to disagree (mostly non-Midwesterners), I think Buttigieg would've performed at least as well as Biden. Had he not withdrawn on the eve of Super Tuesday, I would've voted for him. Relatively inexperienced Ivy League graduate who excels at public speaking and belongs to a marginalized minority group. Sound very familiar. Buttigieg vs Biden seems eerily similar to Obama vs Clinton. And in the latter instance, it wasn't the "safe," establishment candidate that ultimately proved more popular among Midwestern voters.