What if the insurrection happened in late October

[Motorcity]

Suppose Trump held a rally in DC in late October and his supporters stormed congress like what happened in Jan 6th

I think it flips NC, FL, and TX. Also I think it flips senate races in NC and ME. Ossoff wins outright in November

I wouldn't be surpised if IW and OH flip along with senate races in IW and MT

[Motorcity]

Somewhere between 15-25% of Republicans disapprove of Trump's handling of the riots and might otherwise consider voting for a Democrat in a state race (hence why Ds were able to win in KY and LA).

A successful peal-off in a presidential election would give Democrats 40+ states

15-25% of Republicans are not voting for Biden BUT if they stay home that could flip several states

Look at the 2017 Alabama Senate race. Doug Jones got the same amount of votes Hillary Clinton got, but Roy Moore drastically underperformed Trump. Because Republicans stayed home.

If 5% of the Republicans stayed home in 2020, thats about 3.75 million people across the country. If equally to each state by population, that should flip FL, NC, TX, OH, and IW

[Motorcity]

The 383 map likely occurs and the Democrats do a lot better in the House of Representatives, but still initially lose the Senate due to lackluster candidates such as Cal Cunningham, Sara Gideon, Theresa Greenfield, and Steve Bullock (to some extent).

What is the 383 map? I keep playing around on the electoral calculator but I cant figure it out

[Motorcity]

Lol how would Insurrection have been in Oct, and Trump didn't lose yet. What a topic, some users just post topics.

The idea is what would happen if Trump supporters stormed congress in Oct. It would have to be for a different reason but the events of Jan 6 shows anything is possible. Perhaps a Trump election rally that gets out of hand?