What if the insurrection happened in late October

[Motorcity]

Suppose Trump held a rally in DC in late October and his supporters stormed congress like what happened in Jan 6th

I think it flips NC, FL, and TX. Also I think it flips senate races in NC and ME. Ossoff wins outright in November

I wouldn't be surpised if IW and OH flip along with senate races in IW and MT

[ultraviolet]

I don’t see why they would do that, but it would look even more like a terrorist attack that way. We might’ve gotten the 413 map (or 416) and Cunningham, Gideon, and Greenfield pull through. MT and SC also possible, AK and KS unlikely but possible. Iowa=IA, btw

[BlueSwan]

I don't think it would change much, honestly. Maybe Biden wins North Carolina. Deplorables are gonna be deplorable.

[bagelman]

They have no reason to do so at the time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There wasn't any insurrection in Oct it was a political stunt, due to fact that the security didn't stop WC voters and would of stopped people of color protesters and the protesters didn't burn any paintings or damage anything but windows

[Ferguson97]

Considering Republicans are already saying "actually Biden is divisive and the attack was antifa", it would not change anything.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ted Cruz and Hawley orchestrated this political stunt, the fact that Mcconnell isn't calling for their ouster, they knew the protesters they were bible Conservatives, and they high fives the protesters.

They wanted to sit in the Congressional seats. Any other protesters would have carried torches and burning tools. That's why it was a political stunt

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Suppose Trump held a rally in DC in late October and his supporters stormed congress like what happened in Jan 6th

I think it flips NC, FL, and TX. Also I think it flips senate races in NC and ME. Ossoff wins outright in November

I wouldn't be surpised if IW and OH flip along with senate races in IW and MT

curious why you abbreviate Iowa as "IW".

In my very humble opinion that disrespects the Wikipedia gods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._state_and_territory_abbreviations

[The Houstonian]

Suppose Trump held a rally in DC in late October and his supporters stormed congress like what happened in Jan 6th

I think it flips NC, FL, and TX. Also I think it flips senate races in NC and ME. Ossoff wins outright in November

I wouldn't be surpised if IW and OH flip along with senate races in IW and MT

curious why you abbreviate Iowa as "IW".

In my very humble opinion that disrespects the Wikipedia gods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._state_and_territory_abbreviations

Wiki "gods" are really losers who think editing Wiki is a good use of their time

[Bootes Void]

Considering Republicans are already saying "actually Biden is divisive and the attack was antifa", it would not change anything.

imagine saying Biden is divisive if anything I want him to be more divisive

[South Dakota Democrat]

Suppose Trump held a rally in DC in late October and his supporters stormed congress like what happened in Jan 6th

I think it flips NC, FL, and TX. Also I think it flips senate races in NC and ME. Ossoff wins outright in November

I wouldn't be surpised if IW and OH flip along with senate races in IW and MT

IW?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Suppose Trump held a rally in DC in late October and his supporters stormed congress like what happened in Jan 6th

I think it flips NC, FL, and TX. Also I think it flips senate races in NC and ME. Ossoff wins outright in November

I wouldn't be surpised if IW and OH flip along with senate races in IW and MT

IW?

Iowa's bad abbreviation.

[neostassenite31]

Somewhere between 15-25% of Republicans disapprove of Trump's handling of the riots and might otherwise consider voting for a Democrat in a state race (hence why Ds were able to win in KY and LA).

A successful peal-off in a presidential election would give Democrats 40+ states

[Motorcity]

Somewhere between 15-25% of Republicans disapprove of Trump's handling of the riots and might otherwise consider voting for a Democrat in a state race (hence why Ds were able to win in KY and LA).

A successful peal-off in a presidential election would give Democrats 40+ states

15-25% of Republicans are not voting for Biden BUT if they stay home that could flip several states

Look at the 2017 Alabama Senate race. Doug Jones got the same amount of votes Hillary Clinton got, but Roy Moore drastically underperformed Trump. Because Republicans stayed home.

If 5% of the Republicans stayed home in 2020, thats about 3.75 million people across the country. If equally to each state by population, that should flip FL, NC, TX, OH, and IW

[Pollster]

Depending on how Republicans react, it may save a bunch of Dem House seats if you subscribe to the "suburbanites who don't like Trump voted against Republicans in 2018 to take out their anger, but voted for them down ballot in 2020 when they had the opportunity to vote against Trump directly" theory.

[BaldEagle1991]

Trump would have a large incumbent landslide loss instead of a close one.

[MATTROSE94]

The 383 map likely occurs and the Democrats do a lot better in the House of Representatives, but still initially lose the Senate due to lackluster candidates such as Cal Cunningham, Sara Gideon, Theresa Greenfield, and Steve Bullock (to some extent).

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The 383 map likely occurs and the Democrats do a lot better in the House of Representatives, but still initially lose the Senate due to lackluster candidates such as Cal Cunningham, Sara Gideon, Theresa Greenfield, and Steve Bullock (to some extent).

If the 383 map occurs, Cunningham wins.

[MATTROSE94]

The 383 map likely occurs and the Democrats do a lot better in the House of Representatives, but still initially lose the Senate due to lackluster candidates such as Cal Cunningham, Sara Gideon, Theresa Greenfield, and Steve Bullock (to some extent).

If the 383 map occurs, Cunningham wins.

Thom Tillis I think outruns Donald Trump enough to narrowly win. In addition to the Cal Cunningham scandal, Thom Tillis was able to improve his perception among voters due to his active role in ACB’s confirmation hearings.

[morgankingsley]

There would be no motivation to do it then

[Motorcity]

The 383 map likely occurs and the Democrats do a lot better in the House of Representatives, but still initially lose the Senate due to lackluster candidates such as Cal Cunningham, Sara Gideon, Theresa Greenfield, and Steve Bullock (to some extent).

What is the 383 map? I keep playing around on the electoral calculator but I cant figure it out

[Middle-aged Europe]

[Badger]

Trump's popularity is taking a hit since this happened. We would have gotten the 413 map.

Of course, under the circumstances it is beyond appalling that he would even do that well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Back in Oct, Covid was going down that's why Rs won seats, Trump felt he was gonna win back then, and TX will never flup

[MATTROSE94]

The 383 map likely occurs and the Democrats do a lot better in the House of Representatives, but still initially lose the Senate due to lackluster candidates such as Cal Cunningham, Sara Gideon, Theresa Greenfield, and Steve Bullock (to some extent).

What is the 383 map? I keep playing around on the electoral calculator but I cant figure it out

Basically all of Joe Biden’s 2020 states+North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa.