India 2024 LS and assembly elections

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UP results

BJP+ mostly retains the 2014 2017 2021 vote base.
In 2019 the SP-BSP alliance failed to hold on to non-Jatav Dalits which swung toward the BJP+.  In 2024 the non-Jatav Dalits swung not back to BSP but to SP-INC producing an unexpected win for the SP-INC bloc despite being behind in vote share.

CSDS post-election survey

These numbers among Muslims are crazy. NDA taking only 2 percent could well have made the difference in some close seats. How much of the vote is Muslim?

Shia Muslim minority is more open to BJP and probably account for the majority of their Muslim voters.

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Any theories as to why all the polls in India, including the exit polls, were so wrong and overestimated the BJP so much?

Exit polls just seem to be unreliable in India. In 2014/2019 the averages underestimated the NDA by around 50 seats while this time they overestimated by over 70.

As Jaichind said, they probably underpolled Dalits who were heavily in favour of BJP in 2014 and 2019, and turned against them in 2024.

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lol
 
Literally Peak Indian Political Discourse right here. People will call someone a terrorist and then 5 minutes later ask "where do you want to go for dinner"

There is a reason for this.  Modi needs CBN to ensure a majority and AP state government is basically bankrupt so CBN needs Modi to spend a ton of money to bail him out as far as finances are concerned.  With these needs who cares who called whom a terrorist in the past?

They shouldn’t have been in that much trouble if they had done more equitable development and not focused everything in Hyderabad.

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Meghalaya had some very interesting results. INC lost its pocket borough in Shillong to a regional party VPP, but in turn defeated NPP MP Agatha Sangma in Tura in a shocking upset. The NPP faced anti-incumbency as Sangma’s family held the seat for several decades and also suffered from a toxic alliance with BJP due to the Manipur conflict last year and perception of BJP being anti-Christian.

The VPP made news last year, storming out of the assembly after the BJP appointed governor made his first speech in Hindi.

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Meghalaya had some very interesting results. INC lost its pocket borough in Shillong to a regional party VPP, but in turn defeated NPP MP Agatha Sangma in Tura in a shocking upset. The NPP faced anti-incumbency as Sangma’s family held the seat for several decades and also suffered from a toxic alliance with BJP due to the Manipur conflict last year and perception of BJP being anti-Christian.

The VPP made news last year, storming out of the assembly after the BJP appointed governor made his first speech in Hindi.

Is the INC MP Saleng Sangma related in any way to the Sangma who hold elected office in the state?

Same clan, but he is not a relative of the Sangma family of NPP and the Sangma in TMC (formerly INC).