India 2023 assembly elections

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CSDS-NDTV Mood of the Nation poll

NDA-BJP has the edge.  But it seems INC has gained ground since 2019

Is that the vote share for INC or UPA as a whole? In 2019, BJP had 37.7% of the vote, with the NDA total taking it up to 38.4%. In contrast, INC had 19.7%, with the UPA together accounting for 26.4%. Others amounted to 35.2%.

https://www.indiavotes.com/lok-sabha/2019/all-states/17/0

If you add JD(U), RJD, NCP, SS(U), and DMK,  you probably get another 5-7% of the national vote share. Add to the above (if only INC), and UPA is running close to BJP/NDA. That's why I think 29% in the infograph is probably UPA.

Of course, if the INC vote share in the Infograph is just INC, I don't know what to make of it. That would be a massive consolidation of the anti-BJP vote behind INC.

In your expert opinion, what might be the seat count if it is:
1. BJP/NDA 39% vs INC/UPA 29%
2. BJP/NDA 39% vs INC 29% + rest of UPA

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Actually, just a correction.

https://www.indiavotes.com/alliance/partyWise/17

This page shows NDA excluding BJP got 7.5%, so BJP/NDA in 2019 was approximate 45.2% of the total vote versus INC/UPA at 26.4%.

That would mean the infograph is showing only the BJP vote share in 2019 and thus also 2023. This would mean they are also only showing the INC voteshare in 2019 and also 2023? 29% seems really high, I'm surprised.

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ABP News-Matrize Opinion Poll for Chhattisgarh between March 7 and 22 link

Who would get how much vote share?

Congress - 44%
BJP - 43%
Others – 13%

Who would get how many seats? (out of 90)
Congress - 47 to 52
BJP - 34 to 39
Others - 1 to 5

Who had the best tenure as Chief Minister?

Bhupesh Baghel - 48%
Raman Singh - 46%
Ajit Jogi - 6%

How is the work of PM Modi?

Very good - 46%
Satisfactory - 48%
Very poor - 06%

How is the functioning of the central government?

Very good - 38%
Satisfactory - 44%
Very poor - 18%

Will PM Modi prove to be a game changer in Chhattisgarh assembly elections?

Very much - 38%
Somewhat - 23%
No effect - 39%

Seems there is somewhat of a disconnect between Modi's personal popularity and perceptions about his ability to positive affect the BJP's chances in Chhattisgarh. Also, Bhupesh Baghel is fairly well regarded and could negate the Modi effect somewhat. Still, it's a tossup between INC and BJP at this point

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Actually, just a correction.

https://www.indiavotes.com/alliance/partyWise/17

This page shows NDA excluding BJP got 7.5%, so BJP/NDA in 2019 was approximate 45.2% of the total vote versus INC/UPA at 26.4%.

That would mean the infograph is showing only the BJP vote share in 2019 and thus also 2023. This would mean they are also only showing the INC voteshare in 2019 and also 2023? 29% seems really high, I'm surprised.

Exactly. The poll seems to poll support for the major party and not allies.  For 2024 NDA is pretty much BJP other than for AS(S) in UP, AJSU in Jharkhand, AGP in Assam, SHS in Mahratratra,  LJP in Bihar, and AIADMK/OMK in TN.  I think at this stage NDA = BJP + ~3% so BJP at 39% would mostly translate to NDA at around 42%

INC at 29% is very impressive. As for what this means it really depends on where the INC growth is coming from.  The most advantageous place for INC to grow is the non-UP Hindi heartland.  If that is where INC vote share growth is coming from then BJP will take a large hit in seats.  If it is in UP or places like WB or Odisha then the BJP seat impact will the significant but not large.

All things equal this poll shows that 2024 is not a done deal for BJP if the poll is accurate.

According to NDTV, the "Lokniti-CSDS conducted the survey among 7202 people spread across 19 states and 71 constituencies in India".

I have a hard time believing INC is gaining ground in WB, UP, and Odisha. However, it's equally hard to believe they have gained so much ground in the rest of the non-UP Hindi belt. That's why I was so surprised with the polling. In 2009, INC and BJP combined had 47.4% of the PV. SP and BSP accounted for 9.6%. Since then, BJP has clearly been cannibalising INC, SP, and BSP  to get to the high 30s. Where could INC be getting that much PV if BJP is still in the high 30s?

Just for comparison:

2009: BJP+INC = 47.4%
2014: BJP+INC = 50.31%
2019: BJP+INC = 56.85%
2023: BJP+INC = 68% (according to NDTV CSDS)

Edit: maybe it's a turnout thing?

2009: 58.2%
2014: 66.4%
2019: 67.4%
2024: ?

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Actually, just a correction.

https://www.indiavotes.com/alliance/partyWise/17

This page shows NDA excluding BJP got 7.5%, so BJP/NDA in 2019 was approximate 45.2% of the total vote versus INC/UPA at 26.4%.

That would mean the infograph is showing only the BJP vote share in 2019 and thus also 2023. This would mean they are also only showing the INC voteshare in 2019 and also 2023? 29% seems really high, I'm surprised.

Exactly. The poll seems to poll support for the major party and not allies.  For 2024 NDA is pretty much BJP other than for AS(S) in UP, AJSU in Jharkhand, AGP in Assam, SHS in Mahratratra,  LJP in Bihar, and AIADMK/OMK in TN.  I think at this stage NDA = BJP + ~3% so BJP at 39% would mostly translate to NDA at around 42%

INC at 29% is very impressive. As for what this means it really depends on where the INC growth is coming from.  The most advantageous place for INC to grow is the non-UP Hindi heartland.  If that is where INC vote share growth is coming from then BJP will take a large hit in seats.  If it is in UP or places like WB or Odisha then the BJP seat impact will the significant but not large.

All things equal this poll shows that 2024 is not a done deal for BJP if the poll is accurate.

According to NDTV, the "Lokniti-CSDS conducted the survey among 7202 people spread across 19 states and 71 constituencies in India".

I have a hard time believing INC is gaining ground in WB, UP, and Odisha. However, it's equally hard to believe they have gained so much ground in the rest of the non-UP Hindi belt. That's why I was so surprised with the polling. In 2009, INC and BJP combined had 47.4% of the PV. SP and BSP accounted for 9.6%. Since then, BJP has clearly been cannibalising INC, SP, and BSP  to get to the high 30s. Where could INC be getting that much PV if BJP is still in the high 30s?

Just for comparison:

2009: BJP+INC = 47.4%
2014: BJP+INC = 50.31%
2019: BJP+INC = 56.85%
2023: BJP+INC = 68% (according to NDTV CSDS)

Edit: maybe it's a turnout thing?

2009: 58.2%
2014: 66.4%
2019: 67.4%
2024: ?

Maybe you are beginning to see in India what you see in other nations where you get a dominant party now days (especially if it’s dominated by one person) and that is opposition to that party starts to unite in unusual  way .

Fundamentally Indian politics revolve far more a singular individual than it has in decades so it makes sense that regional parties start to collapse

Yes, that's possible, and I am possibly just overthinking this. Maybe, as Jaichind says, it could be a post-Karnataka boost for INC at the expense of regional parties which could go away by 2024. It's just that all the regional parties seem entrenched in their strongholds right now, and INC has even lost Punjab to AAP.

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Actually, just a correction.

https://www.indiavotes.com/alliance/partyWise/17

This page shows NDA excluding BJP got 7.5%, so BJP/NDA in 2019 was approximate 45.2% of the total vote versus INC/UPA at 26.4%.

That would mean the infograph is showing only the BJP vote share in 2019 and thus also 2023. This would mean they are also only showing the INC voteshare in 2019 and also 2023? 29% seems really high, I'm surprised.

Exactly. The poll seems to poll support for the major party and not allies.  For 2024 NDA is pretty much BJP other than for AS(S) in UP, AJSU in Jharkhand, AGP in Assam, SHS in Mahratratra,  LJP in Bihar, and AIADMK/OMK in TN.  I think at this stage NDA = BJP + ~3% so BJP at 39% would mostly translate to NDA at around 42%

INC at 29% is very impressive. As for what this means it really depends on where the INC growth is coming from.  The most advantageous place for INC to grow is the non-UP Hindi heartland.  If that is where INC vote share growth is coming from then BJP will take a large hit in seats.  If it is in UP or places like WB or Odisha then the BJP seat impact will the significant but not large.

All things equal this poll shows that 2024 is not a done deal for BJP if the poll is accurate.

According to NDTV, the "Lokniti-CSDS conducted the survey among 7202 people spread across 19 states and 71 constituencies in India".

I have a hard time believing INC is gaining ground in WB, UP, and Odisha. However, it's equally hard to believe they have gained so much ground in the rest of the non-UP Hindi belt. That's why I was so surprised with the polling. In 2009, INC and BJP combined had 47.4% of the PV. SP and BSP accounted for 9.6%. Since then, BJP has clearly been cannibalising INC, SP, and BSP  to get to the high 30s. Where could INC be getting that much PV if BJP is still in the high 30s?

Just for comparison:

2009: BJP+INC = 47.4%
2014: BJP+INC = 50.31%
2019: BJP+INC = 56.85%
2023: BJP+INC = 68% (according to NDTV CSDS)

Edit: maybe it's a turnout thing?

2009: 58.2%
2014: 66.4%
2019: 67.4%
2024: ?

This is a very legitimate critique of this poll which I have seen others make.  Namely, all things equal the BJP and INC votes are fairly correlated so if INC gains a bunch of votes then BJP should go down.  Part of this is that there are still a lot of third-party votes in BJP-INC bipolar states and INC could be making gains there against third party and BJP.    And in the meantime BJP makes gains in traditionally weak BJP places like the Deep South, Odisha, WB, AP, and Telangana which does not help the BJP that much in terms of seats but will lose a bunch of seas to INC in BJP-INC bipolar states.  That would be the worst case scenario interpretation of the poll for BJP.

I had completely overlooked third-party votes in BJP-INC states. This is a very plausible interpretation of the poll and makes so much sense, thanks.

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The election commission has finalised a draft for the delimitation of Lok Sabha and assembly constituencies in Assam to be in effect by the 2024 LS and 2026 assembly elections. No changes in the total number of seats, but the INC is alleging that the BJP is gerrymandering. BJP claims that the move will help protect the indigenous population.  NDTV Outlook India Hindustan Times Pratidin Time  East Mojo




 
Notably, some Lok Sabha seats have been renamed, seemingly to justify the shifting of assembly constituencies within their boundaries. The Kaliabor LS seat, a long time stronghold of the INC and Gogoi family, has been now renamed Kaziranga LS after the famous wildlife sanctuary. The rationale for this is that it will promote tourism, but political motives are obvious. The Kaliabor LS seat had a large number of Muslim voters. In 2014, Gaurav Gogoi won with 38% of the vote, while BJP finished second with 29.3% and AIUDF was third with 19.1%. In 2019, AIUDF did not run a candidate, allowing Gogoi to beat back the BJP candidate 55.4% to 40.44%. He would have possibly lost if AIUDF had run a strong Muslim candidate. The EC is now shifting out/redrawing 4 assembly seats with heavy Muslim populations, namely, Dhing, Batodraba, Rupohihat, and Samaguri. They are being replaced by Hindu majority seats from other LS constituencies.

They are changing which LS seats are reserved for SC. Karimganj, which is reserved for SC, will become unreserved and Silchar will become a SC reserved seat instead. Silchar has a Bengali Hindu majority, and is a historical stronghold of INC and the Dev family. Sushmita Dev won in 2014 despite the BJP wave and did not perform too badly in 2019, losing by 82,000 votes. She has since joined the AITC, and become Rajya Sabha MP from West Bengal. She is not SC. What this now means is that she will have a much harder time getting back into Assam politics, and helping AITC gain a foothold with the Bengali Hindu population of the Barak Valley.

This pattern of redrawing seats with Muslim population is also widespread in assembly constituencies. Naoboicha, the only constituency in upper Assam with a Muslim majority, has been bifurcated into two, spreading out the Muslim voters. Moreover, the seat will now be reserved for SC, meaning that Muslim candidates cannot run. Likewise, the Hajo assembly seat formerly in Guwahati LS, with a substantial Muslim population, is now reserved for SC as well.

The Jalukbari assembly seat of the Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma will be bifurcated into three. He won by 100,000 votes (77%) in 2021, and BJP will probably have a very good chance of winning all three seats next time.

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snip

How much say did the Modi government and state government have over who got on the commission?

The government constitutes a delimitation panel that is theoretically independent, but in practice the members are influenced by the party in power. In 2020, the chief election commissioner Ashok Lavasa resigned after tense relations with Modi, and was replaced by Rajiv Kumar, who has proven to be very much Modi's man. The outcome of delimitation in Jammu and Kashmir last year was completely in favour of the BJP. In Assam, the EC is directly carrying out the delimitation rather than a delimitation panel, which is a bit unusual. They are using the 2001 census which is opposed by the INC. The 2011 census would be more favourable to Muslim representation, and harmful to the BJP. Also, the BJP previously wanted the delimitation to only take place after the NRC in Assam was complete, but they are pressing ahead now.

Funny thing about Assam's delimitation is that the proposals partly originate from when INC was in power both in centre and in the state. Himanta Biswa Sarma was then the top lieutenant of INC CM Tarun Gogoi, and both were looking to neutralise the AIUDF, a Bengali Muslim party. He is now in BJP, and influenced the outcome partly for personal reasons. He absolutely hates Gaurav Gogoi, whose promotion in the party was part of the rift between him and the INC. He wants to get Gaurav Gogoi out no matter what. Modi doesn't care or know much about local dynamics, and delegates North-Eastern affairs to people like Himanta and Sarbananda Sonowal.

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Times Now poll on 2024 LS elections

BJP+     38.08%
INC+     28.82%
Others   33.10%

Seats
BJP+      285 - 315
INC+      111 - 149
AITC        20 -   22  (BJP roughly matches 2019 performance in WB)
YSRCP     24  -   25  (YSRCP sweeps TDP in AP)
BJD         12  -   14  (BJD-BJP seat balance in Odisha seems similar to 2019)
BRS          9  -   11  (Telangana results seem similar to 2019)
AAP          4  -     7  (AAP does not seem to sweep Punjab)
SP            4  -     8  (BJP must have swept UP for SP to be this low)
Others     18  -   38

BJP sweeping UP (70+ seats) (with SP at 4-8) and holding their own in WP and Odisha but still losing seats must mean that INC is making up some ground against the BJP in the Hindi heartland.

Is INC+ the entire UPA? If so, the poll contradicts the Zee News CSDS poll which had INC alone at 28%. I'm presuming it must be the entire UPA since they are not showing DMK separately. If the entire UPA is only at 28%, INC would be around 18-20%, or maybe a little higher. I can't see how INC is making a comeback in the Hindi belt with those numbers.

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Times Now poll on 2024 LS elections

BJP+     38.08%
INC+     28.82%
Others   33.10%

Seats
BJP+      285 - 315
INC+      111 - 149
AITC        20 -   22  (BJP roughly matches 2019 performance in WB)
YSRCP     24  -   25  (YSRCP sweeps TDP in AP)
BJD         12  -   14  (BJD-BJP seat balance in Odisha seems similar to 2019)
BRS          9  -   11  (Telangana results seem similar to 2019)
AAP          4  -     7  (AAP does not seem to sweep Punjab)
SP            4  -     8  (BJP must have swept UP for SP to be this low)
Others     18  -   38

BJP sweeping UP (70+ seats) (with SP at 4-8) and holding their own in WP and Odisha but still losing seats must mean that INC is making up some ground against the BJP in the Hindi heartland.

Is INC+ the entire UPA? If so, the poll contradicts the Zee News CSDS poll which had INC alone at 28%. I'm presuming it must be the entire UPA since they are not showing DMK separately. If the entire UPA is only at 28%, INC would be around 18-20%, or maybe a little higher. I can't see how INC is making a comeback in the Hindi belt with those numbers.

Good question.  I am not sure.  The poll does not make clear what the INC+ vote share is.  For example for TN, they broke out the DMK and INC vote shares even though in theory DMK is part of the INC+ bloc.  I suspect the 28.8% vote share for INC+ above is INC+ w/o DMK and other TN allies in which case the true INC+ vote share would be something like 32%.

That would make sense.  The poll has INC+ gaining seats from NDA.  But if the NDA vote and INC+ (I call them INC+ because it is not clear if I use UPA or the new PDA)  vote share is similar to 2019 then it is not clear how INC+ gains seats.  INC+ at 32% would mean that one would expect them to gain seats from NDA.

That sounds plausible. Compared to 2019, the Times Now state breakdown for 2024 suggests some possible improvements for INC in the Hindi seats. One main difference seems to be that INC is losing a bunch of seats in Punjab that it makes up for in Karnataka. UPA, as it is currently constituted, has a strength of 108 in the LS. 111 is the lowest range of seats in this poll, and 150 is the highest, allowing for some INC pickups in the Hindi belt. The strongest performance by UPA (with DMK) according to this poll would still give the NDA a slim majority of 10, which, as things currently stand, looks about right.

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SHS CM Eknath Shinde now looks ridiculous.  One of the main reasons why he gave for his rebellion last year was "working with Ajit Pawar and his corrupt cronies goes against our morality and ideology".  Now Ajit Pawar and his corrupt cronies will serve as DCM and ministers in his government.  This setup cannot last long.

SHS MLA's being very frank about the reasons for their displeasure. Link

Two days after nine NCP legislators joined the Maharashtra government, at least two Shiv Sena MLAs Tuesday publicly expressed their displeasure and questioned the need for inducting the Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction into the government.

“People are upset to some extent… While earlier we would have got one full bread, now we will have to be satisfied with half and those who were going to get half will have to settle for a quarter,” Gogawale said.

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https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/founding-fathers-wanted-uniform-civil-code-time-has-come-to-do-it-vice-president-4176177

"Founding Fathers Wanted Uniform Civil Code, "Time Has Come" To Do It: Vice President"

BJP getting closer to a Uniform Civil Code law.  It seems that tribals will be exempt from it since that is a voting bloc the BJP is trying to court.  So in the end UCC will just be about targeting Muslims who vote in very small numbers for the BJP.

If the BJP gets UCC done then in many ways the entire purpose of forming BJS (proto-BJP) has been accomplished.  The entire basis of BJS's existence in the 1950s to 1970s was the Uniform Civil Code, the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, and the removal of Article 370 (J&K special status).  Once UCC is done Modi would have fulfilled the dreams of generations of BJS/BJP.  A truly consequential PM.
 

They also want Hindi as the undisputed national language and lingua franca. However, they have been very careful not to stir that hornet's nest for a very long time now. It will be interesting to see what aspirations they will have if, and when, the uniform civil code is instituted.

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Peoples Pulse survey for Chhattisgarh (7 July) Link

INC - 46%
BJP - 38%

INC - 53-60  
BJP - 20-27

Performance of the Chief Minister (INC)

Good - 45%
Okay - 15%
Bad - 30%
Can't Say - 10%

Performance of the government

Fully satisfied - 20%
Partially satisfied - 31%
Fully unsatisfied - 17%
Partially unsatisfied - 21%
Can't Say - 11%

Which party is better for development

INC - 48%
BJP - 40%
OTH - 2%
None - 10%

Should Congress government be given another chance

Yes - 47%
No - 40%
Can't Say - 13%

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Peoples Pulse survey for Chhattisgarh (7 July) Link

Peoples Pulse mood survey puts Congress comfortably ahead in Chhattisgarh, BJP a distant second

A month-long ground study conducted in June, covering all five administrative zones and all 33 districts in the state, has shown that Congress could retain power without breaking a sweat.

The survey, carried out five months before the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, shows that the incumbent Congress government under Chief Minister Bhupesh Bhagel is expected to win 53 to 60 seats. Much like in Karnataka, the BJP is set to be placed a distant second with 20 to 27 seats.

Chhattisgarh has a 90-member Assembly, and 46 is the mark for a simple majority.

According to the mood survey, the Congress is set to retain power with a vote share of 46 percent, which is eight percentage points more than the BJP’s 38 percent. Other parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and independent candidates are projected to win a couple of seats.

What is working in Congress’ favour?

The popularity of Chief Minister Bhupesh Bhagel is a big factor in the pro-Congress sentiment in Chhattisgarh, the study found. The regional identity and regional pride cards highlighted by Bhagel are working for Congress.

The sub-nationalist “Chhattisgarhiya” narrative built by the Congress is pitched against BJP’s national narrative and Hindutva. Icons and symbols like Chhattisgarh Mahtari (Mother Chhattisgarh), use of local dialect in government campaigns, slogans like “Gadhbo Nava Chhattisgarh” (We will make a New Chhattisgarh), etc, are part of the narrative.

Even sports and culture events like the Chhattisgariya Olympics, a state song, Arpa – Pairi ke dhar, released by Bhagel on a regional plank, coupled with a Hindutva push, are working in favour of the Congress, the survey said.

Schemes like Godhan Nyay Yojana where cow dung is purchased by government from cattle herders to make organic vermicompost — a first of its kind initiative in the country — too has struck a chord.

Delivery of welfare schemes, Bhagel’s visit to villages and towns with “Bhent Mulaqat” to address people’s grievances, has enhanced his public image, the study said.

Choice of chief minister

When respondents were asked who they preferred as the next chief minister, Bhupesh Baghel was leading by 10 percentage points over his predecessor Raman Singh. The elevation of TS Singh Deo recently as as the deputy chief minister has quelled dissent in the party to an extent, the study found.

Asked about the “Performance of the Chief Minister”, 45 percent respondents said Good, 15 percent said Okay, 30 percent said Bad, and 10 percent chose Can’t Say.

Asked about the work done by the Congress government in Chhattisgarh the last four-and-a-half years, 20 percent of the respondents were Fully Satisfied, 31 percent were Partially Satisfied, 17 percent were Fully Unsatisfied, 21 percent were Partially Unsatisfied, and 11 percent chose Can’t Say.

When asked which party is better for development, 48 percent respondents said it was the Congress, 40 percent said BJP, one percent each said JCC and BSP, and 10 percent said None.

To the question whether the Congress government should be given another chance, 47 percent said Yes, 40 percent said No, and 13 percent said Can’t Say.

There is a perception among common voters that since BJP was given three chances, and since the current government of Congress is doing good work, it deserves another chance.

The main issues, as identified by the mood survey, were price rise, unemployment, infrastructure/roads, health care, and corruption.

Region-wise preference and mood

Chhattisgarh is primarily divided into three regions — North, Central, and South.

The north region, also called Surguja, is dominated by the Scheduled Tribes (STs) and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). There are 23 seats in the region. In the 2018 elections, the Congress swept this region as there was a possibility that TS Singh Deo would become the chief minister.

However, he was denied the chair, which left voters of this region dissatisfied. The BJP is likely to improve its performance here this time while Congress would lose some seats compared to 2018.

The central region is not only the most urbanised and populous zone with 55 Assembly seats, but is also the Scheduled Caste (SC) belt of the state and almost all SC seats of Chhattisgarh fall under this zone.

The highest concentration of Muslims in Chhattisgarh is also in this region, where Chief Minister Bhagel too hails from.

The BJP is quite strong here and, despite a bad performance in the 2018 Assembly elections, more than two-thirds of its seats were won in this region. BJP is likely to improve in this region, but Congress is still ahead of it.

Southern Chhattisgarh — also called the Bastar region — is primarily an ST dominated region and 11 out of 12 seats are reserved for ST candidates.

It used to be a BJP stronghold, but in the 2018 elections, the Congress swept the region winning 11 of the 12 seats.

The Congress is likely to lose some here seats but will still be the biggest party in this zone due to the popularity of its schemes like MSP on forest produce, land pattas to poor people, and influence of its leaders like Kawasi Lakhma, Santram Netam, Lakheshwar Baghel, Dipak Baik, Vikram Mandawi, etc.

Demography and preference

General voters in the state are mostly centred in big cities. While their votes are divided, they seem slightly more inclined towards the BJP.

OBCs are the biggest voting block of the state and have influence and presence across all regions. This community, to which Bhupesh Baghel belongs, is divided in their vote preference.

While communities like Kurmis, Panika, and Marar are inclined towards the Congress, the Sahu, Kalar, Devangan, and Yadav communities are more inclined towards the BJP.

The SC population in the state is mostly concentrated in the central belt. Satnami — the biggest and most influential SC community of the state — is inclined to Congress, as are Harijans and Mahars.

The ST community, mostly concentrated in the north and south regions, is also divided. The Gond community vote is divided between various parties like the Congress, the BJP, Sarv Adivasi Samaj, etc. Kanwar, Pahadi Korbas are inclined towards the BJP. The Khairwars, Oraon, and Halba communities are inclined toward the Congress, while Muriyas and Bhatras are divided between the two parties.

Muslims and Christians are both inclined toward Congress, the mood survey suggests.

Methodology

Peoples Pulse, a Hyderabad-based political research organisation, conducted a Mood Survey in Chhattisgarh for one month from 1 June to 30 June with a sample of 3,000.

Twenty research scholars in five groups covered the North, Central, South regions, travelling over 5,000 km across Chhattisgarh, speaking to people, and collecting responses to structured questionnaires.

Some 35-40 samples were collected from each Assembly constituency. The sample reflects the situation in terms of caste, religion, community and age as they exist on the ground. Gender was given equal representation.

Four researchers from each group conducted the Mood Survey based on open-ended, free-wheeling conversations with respondents to elicit their views on a host of issues, interspersed with the question related to the specific study.

The respondents were chosen through purposive sampling and employing a qualitative inferential method.

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Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

The snap election made it more difficult to remove Modi, yes, but Vajpayee and Advani combined had enough pull to remove him if they both agreed. Before Modi, Advani was the icon of Hindutva, and credited with the progress of the Ram Temple movement. It's funny in hindsight because centrist BJP leaders and sympathetic media have spent the last 10 years trying to rebrand Advani as a Hinduvta moderate who opposed Modi's more "hardline" approach. To be honest, it's less about Hinduvta, and more about the real or perceived decentralisation of BJP high command during the pre-Modi era. It will be interesting to see if, and when, Yogi becomes PM, whether they try to rebrand Modi as a moderate if they need an ideal past leader within the BJP to counter him.

[eos]

Chhattisgarh Deputy CM TS Singdheo proclaims support for incumbent CM Bhupest Baghel if INC retains power in 2023. I suspect if INC narrowly retains power, there could be another power tussle Link

Chhattisgarh: If Congress wins, Bhupesh Baghel to be first in line for CM post, says Deputy CM TS Singhdeo

Chhattisgarh Deputy Chief Minister TS Singhdeo today (July 23) said the Congress would fight the assembly polls 2023 under a collective leadership helmed by Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel and if the party wins, Baghel would be first in line to be considered for the post of CM
While speaking to the media, TS Singhdeo said if an incumbent chief minister has not been removed, it means the party maintains its belief in that person being able to lead the team to victory, and after the win why should the captain be changed.

He also predicted the Congress was likely to bag another resounding mandate in the 90-member assembly, saying some are projecting 75-plus seats for his party but his estimate is anywhere between 60 to 75-plus. The Congress had won 68 seats in the 2018 assembly polls.

Only partial article snippets are allowed for copyright reasons

[eos]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

BJP is being quite foolish on Manipur if you ask me. If it was Assam and Himanta's chief ministership on the line, I'd understand, but Manipur is too irrelevant to capture the hearts and minds of BJP voters in north India. I think there is a push from the BJP hard right because of the Hindu and Christian dynamics of Manipur.

[eos]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

The snap election made it more difficult to remove Modi, yes, but Vajpayee and Advani combined had enough pull to remove him if they both agreed. Before Modi, Advani was the icon of Hindutva, and credited with the progress of the Ram Temple movement. It's funny in hindsight because centrist BJP leaders and sympathetic media have spent the last 10 years trying to rebrand Advani as a Hinduvta moderate who opposed Modi's more "hardline" approach. To be honest, it's less about Hinduvta, and more about the real or perceived decentralisation of BJP high command during the pre-Modi era. It will be interesting to see if, and when, Yogi becomes PM, whether they try to rebrand Modi as a moderate if they need an ideal past leader within the BJP to counter him.

My guess is the BJP post Modi will have many of the issues the GOP had post Reagan. When the charismatic leader who brought their parties to the promise land left , many of the divisions that were covered up in the years he was in charge started to come out.

Just like with the GOP under Reagan, there are many hardliners who think Modi has not gonna far enough and moderates who think hes gone to far and I think those divisions will cause major issues for the BJP post Modi. Imo taking advantage of that schism with a rebranded INC will be how the BJP gets booted from office too.

I have become quite cynical and think BJP is always a Pakistan incident away from a landslide in every LS election. Voter mindsets have changed drastically in recent years. Even the Kargil War in 1999 didn't really help BJP in the elections later that year. However, LS elections have become a de facto referendum on Indian nationalism, at least, in the North. How much of that is actually Modi's personal popularity remains to be seen. If it's just Modi, I'd agree that INC can come back into power. However, if the voters mainly like the nationalist brand projected by BJP, I wouldn't be surprised to see future BJP landslides under someone like Yogi. I think it's more likely a combination of the two factors, and if so, BJP will certainly be weakened without Modi. Then again, who knows if Yogi could or couldn't capture and project that kind of personal popularity. One thing that Modi had going for him was the public perception of being a successful civilian administrator and troubleshooter, in addition to Hinduvta credentials. I don't think Yogi can pull that off, but the pro-BJP media has been trying to brush up his administrative credentials.

[eos]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

BJP is being quite foolish on Manipur if you ask me. If it was Assam and Himanta's chief ministership on the line, I'd understand, but Manipur is too irrelevant to capture the hearts and minds of BJP voters in north India. I think there is a push from the BJP hard right because of the Hindu and Christian dynamics of Manipur.

Also, most people in the Hindi heartland do not view the issues in Manipur in religious terms.   It is true that Meiteis are mostly Hindus (some are Muslim) and Kukis are Christians but this is viewed, and really is, a Hill vs plain tribal ethnic conflict.   I think BJP's bet is that voters have short memories and that keeping  N. Biren Singh around does mean the BJP gets the Meitei vote in the next assembly election.  This strategy seems to be working until the video of the two Kuki women being forced to march naked which worked to nationalize this issue not as a religious issue but as a law and order and protection of women issue.  I guess the BJP can bet that this will blow over as well in a few weeks.

That is the BJP line, but a lot of the media is reporting on the Hindu and Christian dynamics. Some Hinduvta news organs are explicitly framing it as a religious conflict. Christian organisations in India are also organising solidarity marches.

[eos]

That is the BJP line, but a lot of the media is reporting on the Hindu and Christian dynamics. Some Hinduvta news organs are explicitly framing it as a religious conflict. Christian organisations in India are also organising solidarity marches.

I agree they are trying that line.  I am skeptical this narrative will work.  We will see. 

In hindsight, you are probably correct on why BJP high command is motivated to keep Biren Singh, but I doubt that some of their supporters are motivated by realpolitik as well. I think some internal support for the Manipur government due to the perceived religious angle makes it easier for the high command to avoid sacking him.

[eos]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

The snap election made it more difficult to remove Modi, yes, but Vajpayee and Advani combined had enough pull to remove him if they both agreed. Before Modi, Advani was the icon of Hindutva, and credited with the progress of the Ram Temple movement. It's funny in hindsight because centrist BJP leaders and sympathetic media have spent the last 10 years trying to rebrand Advani as a Hinduvta moderate who opposed Modi's more "hardline" approach. To be honest, it's less about Hinduvta, and more about the real or perceived decentralisation of BJP high command during the pre-Modi era. It will be interesting to see if, and when, Yogi becomes PM, whether they try to rebrand Modi as a moderate if they need an ideal past leader within the BJP to counter him.

My guess is the BJP post Modi will have many of the issues the GOP had post Reagan. When the charismatic leader who brought their parties to the promise land left , many of the divisions that were covered up in the years he was in charge started to come out.

Just like with the GOP under Reagan, there are many hardliners who think Modi has not gonna far enough and moderates who think hes gone to far and I think those divisions will cause major issues for the BJP post Modi. Imo taking advantage of that schism with a rebranded INC will be how the BJP gets booted from office too.

I have become quite cynical and think BJP is always a Pakistan incident away from a landslide in every LS election. Voter mindsets have changed drastically in recent years. Even the Kargil War in 1999 didn't really help BJP in the elections later that year. However, LS elections have become a de facto referendum on Indian nationalism, at least, in the North. How much of that is actually Modi's personal popularity remains to be seen. If it's just Modi, I'd agree that INC can come back into power. However, if the voters mainly like the nationalist brand projected by BJP, I wouldn't be surprised to see future BJP landslides under someone like Yogi. I think it's more likely a combination of the two factors, and if so, BJP will certainly be weakened without Modi. Then again, who knows if Yogi could or couldn't capture and project that kind of personal popularity. One thing that Modi had going for him was the public perception of being a successful civilian administrator and troubleshooter, in addition to Hinduvta credentials. I don't think Yogi can pull that off, but the pro-BJP media has been trying to brush up his administrative credentials.

I do think the BJP will win the next two elections but I do think they will lose power sometimes in the 2030s to a rebranded Congress(remember the Dem Party that came back post Reagan was pretty different than the one that got crushed in the 80s).

Basically right now since Modi was the one who brought the BJP to the promised land , both the moderate wing of the party and the hardline wing are willing to put differences aside to support that leader but once Modi is gone, I am no longer sure they can. Also I think Congress in the 2030s coopt much of the BJP's nationalist messaging which makes the party more appealing to more Moderate Nationalist voters that preferred the Vajpayee era BJP to this one. I also think due to globalization , urban areas in India will eventually move left and you will see the rebranded Congress party have a far more urban coalition than they have in recent memory.

You could say in some ways if you want to go to much in the US comparisons , that Yogi would be a hybrid of Buchanan/Gingrich and Shah is more like Bush/Dole.

I don't think Modi will leave office of his own accord. He will die in office or lose an election, neither of which seems likely at this time. Maybe he will consider retiring if he surpasses Nehru's 17 years as PM.

Interesting. I am not totally sure about the US and India comparison in terms of the urban coalition. The BJP has historically been the urban party, and I don't see issues cropping up where INC can take a lead in urban areas.

[eos]

That is the BJP line, but a lot of the media is reporting on the Hindu and Christian dynamics. Some Hinduvta news organs are explicitly framing it as a religious conflict. Christian organisations in India are also organising solidarity marches.

I agree they are trying that line.  I am skeptical this narrative will work.  We will see.  

In hindsight, you are probably correct on why BJP high command is motivated to keep Biren Singh, but I doubt that some of their supporters are motivated by realpolitik as well. I think some internal support for the Manipur government due to the perceived religious angle makes it easier for the high command to avoid sacking him.

I also think it has to do with Modi's strategy since 2014 of not giving up to opposition demands.  So the more the opposite demand the sacking of Manipur CM N. Biren Singh the more Modi will refuse to do so.  It is a variation of one of Mao's famous quotes from 1939 "We will support whatever our enemies oppose and we will oppose whatever our enemies support."

The opposition has moved for a vote of no confidence. Modi's government will easily survive, but he is required by convention to personally address the cause of the vote, namely, the Manipur crisis. He has been avoiding discussing it, and forcing him to address it is the opposition's strategy at this time. Link

[eos]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

The snap election made it more difficult to remove Modi, yes, but Vajpayee and Advani combined had enough pull to remove him if they both agreed. Before Modi, Advani was the icon of Hindutva, and credited with the progress of the Ram Temple movement. It's funny in hindsight because centrist BJP leaders and sympathetic media have spent the last 10 years trying to rebrand Advani as a Hinduvta moderate who opposed Modi's more "hardline" approach. To be honest, it's less about Hinduvta, and more about the real or perceived decentralisation of BJP high command during the pre-Modi era. It will be interesting to see if, and when, Yogi becomes PM, whether they try to rebrand Modi as a moderate if they need an ideal past leader within the BJP to counter him.

My guess is the BJP post Modi will have many of the issues the GOP had post Reagan. When the charismatic leader who brought their parties to the promise land left , many of the divisions that were covered up in the years he was in charge started to come out.

Just like with the GOP under Reagan, there are many hardliners who think Modi has not gonna far enough and moderates who think hes gone to far and I think those divisions will cause major issues for the BJP post Modi. Imo taking advantage of that schism with a rebranded INC will be how the BJP gets booted from office too.

I have become quite cynical and think BJP is always a Pakistan incident away from a landslide in every LS election. Voter mindsets have changed drastically in recent years. Even the Kargil War in 1999 didn't really help BJP in the elections later that year. However, LS elections have become a de facto referendum on Indian nationalism, at least, in the North. How much of that is actually Modi's personal popularity remains to be seen. If it's just Modi, I'd agree that INC can come back into power. However, if the voters mainly like the nationalist brand projected by BJP, I wouldn't be surprised to see future BJP landslides under someone like Yogi. I think it's more likely a combination of the two factors, and if so, BJP will certainly be weakened without Modi. Then again, who knows if Yogi could or couldn't capture and project that kind of personal popularity. One thing that Modi had going for him was the public perception of being a successful civilian administrator and troubleshooter, in addition to Hinduvta credentials. I don't think Yogi can pull that off, but the pro-BJP media has been trying to brush up his administrative credentials.

I do think the BJP will win the next two elections but I do think they will lose power sometimes in the 2030s to a rebranded Congress(remember the Dem Party that came back post Reagan was pretty different than the one that got crushed in the 80s).

Basically right now since Modi was the one who brought the BJP to the promised land , both the moderate wing of the party and the hardline wing are willing to put differences aside to support that leader but once Modi is gone, I am no longer sure they can. Also I think Congress in the 2030s coopt much of the BJP's nationalist messaging which makes the party more appealing to more Moderate Nationalist voters that preferred the Vajpayee era BJP to this one. I also think due to globalization , urban areas in India will eventually move left and you will see the rebranded Congress party have a far more urban coalition than they have in recent memory.

You could say in some ways if you want to go to much in the US comparisons , that Yogi would be a hybrid of Buchanan/Gingrich and Shah is more like Bush/Dole.

I don't think Modi will leave office of his own accord. He will die in office or lose an election, neither of which seems likely at this time. Maybe he will consider retiring if he surpasses Nehru's 17 years as PM.

Interesting. I am not totally sure about the US and India comparison in terms of the urban coalition. The BJP has historically been the urban party, and I don't see issues cropping up where INC can take a lead in urban areas.

Aren't Urban Areas generally more socially liberal than rural areas too and btw I didnt mean INC does as good in Urban areas as dems do here, but rather their coalition will be more Urban than their 2004/2009 ones when they take back power.

In terms of total population, yes, urban areas are likely to include more "social liberals". However, in relative terms, urban areas still tend to favour the BJP while INC is actually stronger in rural areas. I find that India doesn't really have many wedge social issues that can polarise the electorate in favour of the INC. I can't see anything developing to favour the INC either. However, things could suddenly change in a few years, who knows.

[eos]

Communal violence breaks out in a Muslim majority district of Haryana, with violence spreading across the state.

Tension grips Haryana's Nuh after stones pelted at religious procession; internet restricted

According to the reports, the clashes triggered after Bajrang Dal activist Monu Manesar, a cow vigilante who is accused of lynching two Muslim men, and his associates had circulated an objectionable video a few days ago and was supposed to joint the procession.

Live updates

Violence spreads to Gurgaon, Faridabad and Palwal; home guard shot dead, several cops injured Haryana Clashes: Stones were pelted during a religious procession and cars were set on fire in Nuh adjoining Gurugram on Monday.

Haryana Violence: Home Guard Shot Dead, Several Cops Injured As Mob Attacks VHP Procession

A home guard was shot dead and about a dozen policemen injured as a mob in Haryana's Nuh district tried to stop a Vishva Hindu Parishad procession, pelting stones and setting cars on fire, police said. As news of the violence in Muslim-dominated Nuh spreads, mobs in adjoining Gurugram district's Sohna set ablaze four vehicles and a shop, apparently belonging to people from that community. Protesters blocked a road for hours.

[eos]

Situation in Haryana is deteriorating

Haryana riots: Five killed as religious clashes erupt in Indian state bordering Delhi

Haryana violence: Muslim cleric killed as mob attacks mosque in Gurugram