2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Also the AP has their own exit and finds the exact opposite that the Eddison one is finding. 

But I can't feel cynical and smart if it's not a DOOM poll

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323758217772617739?s=20

Not enough. Trump’s going down, Bugs Bunny can spare Florida.

NPAs will not break for Biden by double digits.

I feel like I've seen this exact post elsewhere.  A double-digit margin among NPAs is not necessary for Biden to win.

Not necessary, but more than sufficient.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/ben_brasch/status/1323778549229228034

God damn it Georgia, don't do this to me

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

WTF at Miami Dade! Did 90% of cubans vote for Trump?

Only ed votes have been reported

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Georgia needle starting to creep away from Trump! What a wonderful late-night surprise!

I mean the told us a big swath of Atlanta was going to be late.

Still I’m feeling allot better about the Pres race, despite f**king being Florida.

GOP Senate is a disaster though, big thanks to everyone in NC who supported the pandemic profiteer because of some naughty texts.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

Not if NY's got him locked up

He’s gonna Eugene Debbs it.

But, yeah, I fully expect him to be doing campaign rallies until the day he dies or is arrested.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you, a slice of the American electorate:
(NSFW)

Shoutout to the one dude wearing a Reagan Bush '84 shirt.

That’s basically an OG MAGA hat

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I can’t get over the fact that Cal's sexy messenges might cost us the Trifecta for Dem legislation to effectively combat climate change. Icebergs will melt because of how hot he is. Sexiest butterfly effect.

What really burns me is wasn’t Tillis also implicated in the Loeffer pandemic profiteering scandal? That seems a bit more relevant than a text about making out with a reporter but we never heard anything about that.

Sort of like how the FSB ‘Hunter Biden’ laptop got more coverage, even when news reporters were trying to be responsible about it, than Trump being revealed to have a Chinese bank account, Wilbur Ross serving on a Chinese company board, HHS spending 300 million dollars in a scuttled attempt to produce Trump campaign ads (the main take away from which seemed to be ‘lol, Trump’s scared of Billie Elish’ rather than ‘Holy sh**t that’s a blatant Hatch Act violation’), and Bill Barr personally intervening to stop prosecutions of Turkish officials on the President’s orders all coming out on the weekend before the election.

I’m starting to become suspicious of our liberal media.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I can’t get over the fact that Cal's sexy messenges might cost us the Trifecta for Dem legislation to effectively combat climate change. Icebergs will melt because of how hot he is. Sexiest butterfly effect.

What really burns me is wasn’t Tillis also implicated in the Loeffer pandemic profiteering scandal? That seems a bit more relevant than a text about making out with a reporter but we never heard anything about that.

No that was Richard Burr, the other NC senator, who is already retiring in 2022

Oh, my bad

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

The first thing Biden needs to do as president is impose sanctions on the R*ssia. I don't care for what or why, just impose sanctions.

Sh*t like this (spending so much time and energy on being outraged by Trump's personality and stuff like Russiagate than on putting forward an alternative vision for the country) is one reason for why your party is seeing these disappointing results.

Number one, the President of the United States cannot be unhinged with a horrible temper. Second, Russia has deliberately interfered in our affairs and that is a matter of national security. Only the extreme right and the extreme left have any love for Russia.

That's what I don't get... Why? The Far-Right because Putin is a Fascist and the Far-Left because of their love for Stalin's Soviet Union? I don't get the Russian love.

The far right is basically a combination of evangelicals loving Putin’s homophobia and Russians reporting right wing authoritarianism across the globe, meanwhile, there is a tendency for some on the ‘left’ to support anything anti-American on principle, see Tulsi Gabbard and her love affair with Indian genocidaires.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

Well first off there was far more campaigning in MI, WI and PA.

Also; even just a small shift in OH is disasters for Trump in the northern Midwest; he barely won these states in 2016. According to the NYT trend map, SE OH looked like it took another hard trend to the right

But aren’t those three states pretty demographically similar?

Except Ohio (and Pennsylvania and Indiana and Illinois, though the later don’t actually have mountains, I’m talking culturally) have significant Appalachian regions, which the Upper-midwestern states don’t. Their is a slight but significant difference between whites in culturally Appalachian regions (extremely high evangelical number, significant ‘American’ ancestry) and northern whites (more mainline Protestant/Catholic, less religious as a whole, more educational attainment), it’s fading as urban/rural and education become more salient, but it’s an underrated reason that for example Wisconsin and Minnesota have been allot kinder to Democrats than Ohio and Indiana in the last couple decades.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Any day an AZ Patriot gets called a dumbass is a good day

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

There's about 20k mail-in votes out in Clayton too, which is an 85% Biden county with the votes that have already been counted

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

Around this. It depends on margins.

Does anyone know if we can push Perdue under 50?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

This election makes me glad that Manchin was up for reelection in 2018 instead of this year.  If he was running this year, he would have gotten annihilated.

Yeah, I have a hard time rooting for Manchin. I realize he has to watch his back as a red state Democrat, but half the time he doesn't even side with the party.

Eh. I feel he would stick with the party on any issue where his vote actually matters. I doubt he would have voted for Kavanaugh, had he been the 51st vote.

Manchin is mirror universe Collins, he’s only a problem when it doesn’t matter.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Perdue at 50.16%, looks like. Runoff chances?

I asked earlier, the general response was pretty high given the outstanding ballots.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Manchin haters are ridiculous. He is the Democratic MVP for how much he votes with the party. You can't compare him Tammy Duckworth, you have to compare him to what his replacement would be in WV. When you game that out, he probably votes 40-50% more Democratic than his hypothetical replacement would. No other Democratic senator provides that value (maybe Tester could come close).

I really should make a Senator WAR chart. I’m pretty sure Manchin and Tester are obvious, but Baldwin and especially Brown are amazing too.
On the GOP side, Collins and Toomey definitely top the list.
Worst Dem is almost certainly Feinstein but Sinema may officially be below replacement if Arizona is trending as quick as it looks.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Just random comment, but is it just me or does Atlas have over-representation of blue avatars and conservatives that are soft Trump supporters or NeverTrump people?

RINO Tom, ExtremeRepublican, DTC etc. come to mind, (Sorry if I missed anyone) and I've seen handful of blue avatars with Biden Harris endorsements. Just kind of amazing.

Roll Roons and Penn Quaker Girl are two others. But yes, they are definitely overrepresented on this forum, compared to the country at large. It's clear that the Lincoln Project failed in its objectives, and the Republican base-as we all knew-are firmly behind Trump. Trump apparently got 93% of the Republican vote in this election.

It’s almost like relying on Republicans to vote against Republicans isn’t the best strategy.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Trump gained 200k more votes out of Miami Dade compared to 4 years. I am still amazed by that, I am still confused why that county shifted so hard in just 4 years when it was trending dem before

South Florida Spanish-language media would make Fox blush, allot of Cubans/South Americans/Other Caribbean groups found out the war on immigration didn’t include them, and the aggressive stances on Cuba and Venezuela played well with the expat communities.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So does Gross actually still have a shot?

Hard to say, but I think the networks are making the right move by not calling the AK races.

Imagine Biden somehow won with Georgia and ALASKA. Would be a sufficiently bizarre end to such a crazy year.

Imagine if we end up with 51 Senators after the GA run-offs.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

Probably something similar to those weird pro-Trump swings in the Rio Grande Valley. The Republican candidate in TX-23 is even a Hispanic male.

Yup. Tony Gonzalez (i think his name is) won by 3 points.

I read that and thought you were talking about the Football Player lol

He'd be the second Gonzalez in the House Republican Conference.

Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH) is a former NFL player.

They meant this Tony Gonzalez
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Gonzalez

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1324192336784498688?s=20[/tw

‘Look at the Yippies’
The GOP’s only response since 1968

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

From the perspective of a supporter of Trump, the past 24 hours could not have been more horrifying.

Most of them were expecting a quick victory, allowing them to get ample and sound sleep. Many of them did.

Then they woke to the news that Wisconsin flipped due to black people in Milwaukee voting fraud, and then the news that 1.5 million almost entirely Democratic mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania seemingly came from thin air. Then came the flip in Michigan, caused by black people in Detroit more fraud. News from Georgia and Arizona depressed their spirits further.

If Biden won a 413 landslide on election night, it would have been the equivalent of a shot to the head. But this drawn-out turn of events was death by a thousand cuts. It was definitely much worse than how Democrats felt in 2016.

Are you sure they even know he's losing? Given their propensity for misinformation, I figure they think he won and it's over — maybe even off celebrating somewhere

Nope. Go to Twitter. Don himself has been circulating rumours of votes being made up overnight, and vowing to defend himself. In Detroit, they were gathered outside the convention center chanting "stop the count". In Phoenix, they're chanting "count the votes".

Chanting two totally different things makes no sense? WTF.

It makes perfect sense, Democratic votes are inherently illegitimate, stop any procedure which might result in them mattering.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Well this news of 12 kids cosplaying anarchists in Los Angeles has made me very upset about Hunter Biden’s laptop.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Why do I feel Biden might come up short?.....

Exhaustion and trauma

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Umm, I don’t know how it works in other states, but I worked the courthouse election night, sheriffs were everywhere. Election workers neither need guns nor probably would want them.

Edit: St. Clair County, IL, before someone asks.