Describe the likely political history of the previous hypothetical county

[GregTheGreat657]

Sounds like it would also be politically somewhere between Miami-Dade and Monroe: leaning slightly towards the Dems on the whole but swinging heavily towards the incumbent party. Probably last voted Republican for prez for Bush Sr, but 1992, 2004, and 2020 were close calls of about 2-5 points. Close to the statewide median (lean R) downballot.

Name: Jay County
State: Maryland
Location: Maryland Panhandle, between Allegany and Washington Counties
County Seat: Marshallsburg (pop. about 41,000)
Population: 58,035
Geography: Ridge-and-Valley Appalachians, heavily forested, population concentrated in Marshallsburg along the Potomac and a handful of very small (<2,000) unincorporated places in flatter areas
Median Household Income: $35,000
Demographics: 83% White, 14% Black, 1% Native, 2% other (7% Hispanic of any race)
History: Split from Allegany County in 1844. Marshallsburg was founded in 1838 as a work camp for workers on the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal, including a fair contingent of freedmen from the greater Chesapeake region, but retained its independence after work on the canal ceased. Owing to its degree of settlement from eastern Maryland and Virginia, its Black population, the transportation of Southern goods along the canal, and a small degree of German settlement from across the Mason-Dixon Line, it was unlike its neighbors roughly evenly split on secession: sectarian violence was common throughout the Civil War, and an infamous group of Confederate sympathizers crossed the Potomac to attempt to join the Army of Northern Virginia prior to the Maryland Campaign (a monument of them stood outside of the county courthouse until 2015). After the war, the county declined until coal was discovered in its western portion, revitalizing its workforce and connection on the Baltimore and Ohio Railroad; attempts at unionization by the miners were brutally crushed by mining bosses and local politicians. The coal seams largely ran dry in the mid-1950s, provoking a lengthy period of decline. A small private liberal arts college was founded in the northern part of the county, near the town of Paca, in 1973. Interest in the region's history and architecture, as well as the continued gentrification of Greater DC, promoted a movement to revitalize Marshallsburg in the mid-1990s, which prompted a small degree of economic and tourist interest. Mild growth has continued to the present day with the preservation of Marshallsburg's historic downtown and the establishment of Jay Ridge State Park.
Economy: Mineral extraction, education, tourism

Straight R

Name: Tuscarora County
State: New York
Location: Finger Lakes Region
Population: 356,199
County Seat: Seneca (Pop. 23,356)
Geography: Located in a valley, population fairly evenly through most of the county, though the southern fourth is rural. Suburb of both Syracuse and Rochester
Median Household Income: $77k
Racial Demographics: 86% White, 6% Asian, 4% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Native American
History: Very rural area until the late 1940s. Formerly home to a large Amish population who left when the area was becoming more developed. A liberal arts college helped spur the development of the county in the 19th century. White Flight from Syracuse and Rochester accelarated the already large population growth in the 1950s.

[GregTheGreat657]

I have 4 counties I made and their histories will be coming up in the next few days only small descriptions after the names.
Casmir County Wisconsin (The most Polish county in America, working class mid sized city some small suburbs, and mix of farmland/forest countryside.)
Gebirge county Missouri (Rural predominantly German county in the Ozark mountains with a German influenced county seat and the largest rural Oktoberfest in America)
Santos county Washington (The most Hispanic county in the West coast even outpacing CA, though 1/5's of them are undocumented, has a meatpacking plant, Amazon distribution facility, and 2 small cities each with 95% Hispanic population.)
Mariana Rosas county Illinois (Suburban Chicago county that is ethnically, racially, linguistically, and religiously diverse, one of 2 counties in America alongside Queens county N.Y where multiple languages are spoken and 60 percent of the population speaks English as a first language. Has a slight native American reservation in the rural northwest portion of the county and the Indians (Natives) are way more integrated to suburban life than in any other county in America besides Oklahoma county making it the only county in America where Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Pacific Islanders, and Native Americans each make up a chunk of the population.)

Do you have any guesses for my county?

[GregTheGreat657]

As for beloitmoderate's counties I'd guess this how each of them has voted since 2000

Casmir, WI: Gore-Bush-Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump
Gebirge, MO: Straight R
Santos, WA: Gore-Bush-Obama-Obama-Clinton-Trump
Mariana Rosas, IL: Straight D

Name: Cherokee County
State: A fictional state in the South
Location: The eastern part of the county is coastal, while the western part is hilly.
Population: 868,111 (+ 19.6% from 2010)
Largest city: 165,653
Demographics: 56% White, 16% Asian, 14% Hispanic, 13% Black
MHI: $73,200
Bachelor's+ rate: 40%
Economy: The area's economy is based on tourism, banking, and healthcare.
History: The area was dominant agriculturally until the Civil War. The area lost most of its population until a real estate tycoon bought most of the county, and developed it. The area's population spiked after the advent of air conditioning. There are high racial tensions, especially between urban blacks and suburban whites. A relatively small sect of Christianity is based here also.

[GregTheGreat657]

Since Beloitmoderate didn't give a county, I'll offer one:

Name: Narragansett County
State: Rhode Island
Location: Southeast Rhode Island
Population: 115,000
Largest City: Peterboro
Demographics: 50% White Anglo (mostly Portuguese, Italian, and Irish) 40% Latino (mostly Puerto Rican and Dominican), 9% Black, 1% Other
MHI: $53,000
Economy: Historically rooted in the textile industry, shipping, and whaling. Presently not very economically vibrant, with a large number of commuters to Providence.
Other notes: Peterboro is an overwhelmingly Latino ex-industrial town, while the rest of the county is predominantly middle-class exurbia to Providence. There's a history of nasty racial tension in the community.

Safe D for decades, as far back as 1972 if not longer. Swung towards Trump in 2016 due to shifts in the WWC vote and margins stayed about the same in 2020 due to swings among Italian/Irish voters being cancelled out by further swings to Trump among Latino/Portugese voters.

Name: Wirt County
State: Huronia (Fictional Great Lakes states sharing characteristics of Michigan, Illinois, and Wisconsin)
Location: Facing Great Lakes to the east, roughly 30-40 miles north of the regional metropolis of Harton (2.3 million in city proper, 5 million in Harton County)
County Seat: Wirt City (Pop. 396,483)
Population: 2,304,647
Geography: Mostly flat especially in the eastern parts, some hills further towards the west. Heavily urbanized/suburbanized with most of the county-especially the southern part-covered in a grid pattern of tract housing, strip malls, factories etc. Wirt City and certain older towns such as Rosecrans, Philippi, New Hague are fairly dense and support a fairly robust county bus system as well as commuter rail lines tied to the Harton Metro system. The oldest, working-class towns tend to be around Wirt City or in the most southern parts of the county, middle-class postwar suburbs being in the central or southeastern lakeside zone, upper class communities like Fontainbleau or Versailles are found in the "Golden Crescent" covering the northern lakeshore area and the western hills.
Demographics: 64% White, 14% Latino, 10% Black, 8% Asian, 3% Mixed/Other
Demographic Notes: White population heavily German, Dutch, Irish, Polish, Czech, Anglo (both Yankee and Scotch-Irish) as well as some Scandinavians and Italians. Asian population mostly Korean or Japanese. Catholic plurality but large Protestant population especially Evangelicals thanks to Dutch Reformed/Southern Baptist/Scandinavian Free Church/Korean Presbyterian influence.
Economy: Heavy and light manufacturing (especially automobiles and related parts as well as electronics and missile components also food processing and pharmaceuticals), technology, transportation and logistics, healthcare, insurance, retail, education
History: Wirt County was created in 1827 and settled initially by Yankee settlers who came by way of Upstate New York and the Western Reserve of Ohio. The county and its main city was named after Vermont politician William Wirt whom the first settlers greatly admired. Wirt City became a prosperous minor industrial center fairly early on though it fell behind its burgeoning rival to the south, Harton. The surrounding countryside was fertile and attracted a large number of German immigrants as well as conservative Dutch Calvinists heavily influenced by the views of Abraham Kuyper. There was some Irish immigration as well. Naturally, the Civil War brought further economic growth and the county industrialized even further during the Gilded Age with the growth of newer industrial in the county's south that tied itself to Harton's economic sphere. Still the greatest boom in the county only occurred very late in the 19th Century, when a major plant for Goethe Motors was established at Wirt City by German-American automobile pioneer Gerhard Wilcke. Similar to Henry Ford, Wilcke pioneered assembly line techniques and the subsequent boom in production attracted huge numbers of Central European (especially Polish) immigrants as well as some from the South. However, heavy racism among both native-born and immigrant whites (who had plenty of conflicts between themselves) limited the number of black workers. Wirt County was known for frequent strikes and labour agitation that often turned violent such as Black August in 1911 when police and company guards killed 14 striking workers. The Depression was acutely felt in Wirt County and voters turned enthusiastically towards FDR's New Deal which spurred a massive boom in unionization. World War II brought further manufacturing prosperity to the county. The greatest growth for Wirt County, however, only happened with suburbanization as large numbers of workers moved out from Harton northwards to Wirt County. From about 650,000 residents in 1940, the county's population exploded to nearly 1.6 million by 1970. This spurred a massive boom in construction as thousands of houses, schools, stores etc. went up for the young families of all classes moving into Wirt. This was also an era of racial tension, as housing desegregation and busing finally led to significant amounts of black families being allowed to move into Wirt. Many military defense contractors established themselves in the county during this period, which protected the county somewhat from the deindustrialization of the Rust Belt. Moreover the more technical aspects of the military industries attracted many technological workers. In time, this led to a fair amount of Asian and Latino immigration from 1965 onwards, especially in the Eighties and Nineties thanks to it being one of the healthier economies in the Midwest. However, certain older industrial centers such as Wirt City, have declined in population and deal with challenges such as deindustrialization as well as the opioid epidemic leading observers to call Wirt County "America in microcosm". Trade and outsourcing is always a big issue here, with much of the blue-collar population opposing jobs and factories being shipped overseas as a result of NAFTA or US-China trade normalization which even many local white-collar workers are sympathetic to due to their jobs depending on manufacturing indirectly.
Notes: -Wirt County has a few universities such as a major branch of the state university system as well as Wilcke University (a private university endowed by the auto manufacturer) and Gilead College, a prominent Evangelical school run as a joint venture of the Dutch Reformed and Presbyterian churches.
-The incorporated city of Zealand (pop. 22,000) is an extremely conservative Dutch Reformed enclave best compared to an American Staphorst/Urk or a Calvinist Kiryas Joel with strict sabbatarian and other blue laws still in effect (though alcohol is legal due to their Dutch rather than Anglo-American traditions), often returning monolithic margins for preferred candidates. Some outsiders have moved in due to relatively cheap housing prices but they often feel unwelcome.

This was never answered

Your county would be straight D since 1984 or maybe 1988, although Trump would be a fairly strong fit

Name: Zion County
Location: In the Black Belt
Population: 86,903
Largest City: Jefferson (Population: 37,856)
Demographics: 33% White (most claim American ancestry), 58% Black, 5% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 2% Native American
MHI: $43,600
Bachelor’s+ rate: 15%
Geography: Swampy in the south and east, though the rest of the county is relatively flat and grassy, located a little over an hour away from a relatively large (pop. 250,000) city
History: The area was first settled by pioneers and Scots-Irish immigrants. It was an agricultural powerhouse, however due to its reliance on slave labor, the county lost most of its population after the Civil War. The county was dominated by sharecropping for most of the next century. The county continued to economically flounder, and was considered to be amongst the poorest in the nation, until oil was discovered there in 1994. The oil industry is now the dominant industry.

[GregTheGreat657]

Pershing County would be safely Democratic, due to the strong influence of Wilhelmsburg, the county's progressive tradition, and Wisconsin rurals being somewhat redder than those elsewhere in the Rust Belt. It would have given Biden over 75% of the vote, and would have last went Republican in 1956. However, due to Amish population growth and the Dems having already reached their extremely high ceiling in Wilhelmsburg, the county would have had a noticable trend towards Romney in 2012, a trend narrowly in Trump's favour in 2016 — blamed by some on HRC's unpopularity with diehard progressives who favoured Sanders, by others on general trends across the Rust Belt and rural growth — and a trend only narrowly in Biden's favour in 2020. Most psephologists expect further growth in Wilhelmsburg, like is happening in college towns across the nation, and the aformentioned Amish growth to balance each other out and keep the county's politics stagnant at between 70D/30R and 75D/25R for the forseeable future.

Name — Slakasin County
State — Illinois
Location — Downstate, not too far from Springfield and Peoria
Population — 110,251
County Seat and Largest City — Yongeton (pop. 80,440)
Geography — The county is centered on Yongeton, which contains almost three quarters of its population. The rest of the county is predominately rural, with no other cities or towns with more than five thousand residents.
Demographics — 71% White (predominately German and Scotch-Irish), 16% Black, 9% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 2% Other
Demographic notes — Yongeton is roughly 60% white and is home to the bulk of the county's non-white population, and mostly skews lower middle class. The rural areas are >85% white and poorer.
MHI — $38,000
Economy — Retail, manufacturing, agriculture
History — Slakasin County was created in the late 19th century out of several other rural counties. It was named by a prominent local farmer, James Danielson, who claimed it was derived from a word in the Miami-Illinois language meaning 'tree stump'; however, most historians believe that, similar to some of the counties in Michigan named by Henry Schoolcraft, Danielson invented the name himself and that it has no actual meaning. The county remained overwhelmingly rural until the late 1940s, when the United States Army constructed and began operations at Fort Devers, a large base adjacent to the then-small Yongeton. In addition to the usual functions of an army base, such as housing and training soldiers, Fort Devers was also the site of tests throughout the 1950s and 1960s related to using opiates and alkaloids on unaware soldiers in an attempt to enhance their awareness and general performance. These tests became public knowledge in the early 1990s. Fort Devers was shut down in the 1995 BRAC and more than ninety percent of its structures were dismantled and moved elsewhere, with the official reasoning being that there were issues with the soil underneath the base starting to liquefy and sink its structures up to three feet into the ground, along with it being one of the less important army bases in the nation. However, conspiracy theories exist surrounding the base being shut down to cover up further human experimentation carried out on its premises. The dismantling of Fort Devers left behind Yongeton, a military town with 85000 residents at the time of the 1990 census that sprung up around it. While it initially experienced mild population decline and a lack of opportunities, in the 2000s and 2010s, Yongeton transitioned to a retail-driven economy, with many of its arms factories soon replaced by civilian ones, and became an exurb of Springfield; the 2020 census marked the first time in four decades that Slakasin County experienced population growth, some of which was attributed to Illinois government employees moving there due to its proximity to the state's capital. Today, Slakasin County is seen as an example of a military town that was able to successfully move on to a civilian-driven economy, even though many speculate that it will eventually either experience population decline once again due to its lack of a strong non-retail economy of its own and many of its factories facing stiff overseas competition, or be fully integrated into Springfield's metropolitan area and lose its own distinct identity in the process.
Other notes — Slakasin County has been experiencing a slight boost in tourism, especially with young adults, in recent years, due to conspiracy theories surrounding Fort Devers' past and a fictionalized version of Yongeton being utilized as the setting of the extremely popular horror fiction podcast We Hide In The Stalks. However, tourism is still only a small fraction of the county's economy. | Slakasin County was the site of an EF-5 tornado in 1969, passing directly through the core of Devon (at the time, the only other notable town in the county besides Yongeton), which still hasn't recovered from the damage wrought by the 'Great Slakasin Tornado' fifty-three years later. | One notable neighbourhood of Yongeton is Albert Park, a retirement community of nearly eight thousand, developed in the early 2000s on a portion of the recently emptied land that was once Fort Devers, that advertises itself to pensioners from urban and inner suburban areas of cities like Chicago, Saint Louis, and Indianapolis who want to spend the rest of their life in a quieter, more rural area; many of Yongeton's ethnic white, Black, and Hispanic residents are Albert Park retirees.

Ancestrally Republican area that has become a swing county in recent years, narrowly voting for Biden in 2020, after narrowly voting for Trump in 2016. It voted for Obama twice, and every Republican before that outside of D landslides

Name: Sierra County (renamed in 2020 from Dixie County as a ballot referendum)
State: A fictional state in Rocky Mountains/Southwest area
Population over time:
1850 397
1860 506
1870 1,455
1880 2,131
1890 3,755
1900 5,166
1910 9,344
1920 11,155
1930 17,185
1940 24,441
1950 50,113
1960 77,224
1970 118,013
1980 155,224
1990 188,085
2000 231,386
2010 264,448
2020 273,610
2021 est. 273,054
Density (based off 2021 est.): 357.5/sq. mi
Demographics: 51% White, 34% Hispanic, 2% Black, 11% Asian, 2% Native American
Largest Religion (current): Catholicism (Mormons are roughly 10% of the population)
Church attendance rates: Somewhat above average
MHI: Slightly above the national average
Bachelor's+ rate: Slightly above the national average

Geography: The county's northern third is dense suburbs, with the middle third being exurbs, and the southern third being rural. The main city has a population of roughly 550,000. It's county has a population of roughly 1.2 million. The southern third is home to a decently sized Lake Navajo (previously known as Lake Antebellum). The edges of the county that don't border the main city (Cortez) of its metro or the suburbs of the said city have a terrain consisting of rolling hills.

History: Was first settled by Mormons, although many Confederate veterans and their families moved here after the Union won the Civil War. These groups did not exactly get along during the early years of the county, and they wound up living on separate sides of the county, with Mormon families living in the north and Confederate veterans and their families living in the south. The county's population steadily grew as more people moved westward in the early 1900s. With the rapid growth of Cortez in nearby Blio County in the post-war era, Sierra County experienced explosive growth. This growth almost went completely to the northern half of the county. That growth has slowed in recent years, but the county is still growing.