What does your 2024 map look like right now?

[S019ian Liberal]

optipessimistic version:



trends-are-real version:

[S019ian Liberal]

I seriously have no idea how anyone here thinks that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will be "Lean D" states in an election with Harris at the top of the ticket. It demonstrates a mind-boggling lack of awareness as to how she is perceived by the electorate, and of how that region is trending as a whole.

Omg so totally this.

Like I’ve said on other forums, Democrats on this site seem to think that everyone is in love with their policies to the point that it doesn’t matter who leads their ticket.

And I couldn't f---ing agree with this more. I'll have a longer post up later today explaining why I feel this way and how Dems can do something about it's what.

[S019ian Liberal]

okay so in this thread over the long-term imo, democrats face a disadvantage because their policies and politics simply aren't popular. it's time to stop making vapid excuses such as "hrc was a bad candidate" after she lost in 2016 or that "biden was bored and uninspiring" in the lead-up to this year's race, or attributing either/both of their underwhelming showings to trump's personal appeal. people largely tend to forget that in both years, the actually *under*ran the top of the ticket, so it also does not explain congressional elections nor state legislative races at the gubernatorial level and a similar stage, however.

we have experienced a consistent trend over the past couple decades, certainly since all of the bush years (a few within, granted) still to be truly. and apart from the factor of pulled into obama's aura, as well as a predictable midterm backlash against an unpopular poorly-funded polarizing divisive incumbent still adjusting to the handles of his new regular day job, they consistently outperform baseline expectations while all the same showing up in ever-larger (and still-yet increasing) numbers to the polls!

we can't trust anymore how they say about the culture war's turning off moderate "suburban" voters in the middle, but meanwhile at camp all the same it isn't true that something is fundamentally lacking to the strategy deployed by national democrats, however. as for what they can do to mitigate further movement in this direction is a question that frankly just escapes me and i would be a terribly surprised if i were to discover it weren't beyond all of you as single individuals too.

[S019ian Liberal]

Arizona will not be left of New Mexico in 4 years!

Haha.

[S019ian Liberal]

I seriously have no idea how anyone here thinks that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will be "Lean D" states in an election with Harris at the top of the ticket. It demonstrates a mind-boggling lack of awareness as to how she is perceived by the electorate, and of how that region is trending as a whole.

and how is she perceived by that electorate?

A condescending elitist from one of the most politically incestuous places in the country. She has no credibility speaking on the economic issues that concern people the most.

So basically like how Hillary Clinton was perceived?

Yeah I could see Harris losing WI/MI/PA by 2016-like margins. Very much tossup states.

if even biden could only win those states narrowly against a divisive and hated incumbent, harris will get blown out here. by double digits, in fact

[S019ian Liberal]

Probably close to 2012, with the exception of Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and maybe Nevada and New Mexico. The Republicans probably continue to make gains with Hispanics and African Americans, whereas the Democrats solidify their support among upscale suburban voters and moderates in general. Texas also trends more Democratic, but Republican support among Hispanic voters reduces the trends to a point.

Lol.