2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[BudgieForce]

In less than a week it'll be back to where it was.

[BudgieForce]

How does Love have a 5 point lead with that breakdown? There must be a lot more Republicans than Democrats there.

[BudgieForce]

Ipsos

Democrats: 45%
Republicans: 35%

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180301-20180628/collapsed/true

I posted that one on Friday.

Oddly just entered into 538 today.

[BudgieForce]

IBD/TIPP:

Democrats - 48%(+1)
Republicans - 40%(=)

https://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/IBDTIPP_2018_07.pdf

[BudgieForce]

I do think it's funny Kornacki literally tweeted about a new MorningConsult poll showing dems +8 right after but LimoLiberal only posted about the SurveyMonkey poll.

[BudgieForce]

Yeah the hacks like Andrew and Krazen are already jizzing up a storm over at RRH and RedState because of an obscure Trump -3 poll. I guess they convinced themselves that AZ-8 was a fluke and that Doug Jones and Conor Lamb really were elected as Republicans

We've gotten multiple generic ballot polls this week already:

D+10(Ipsos)
D+8(IBD)
D+8(MC)
D+9(Quinnipiac)
D+3(SurveyMonkey)
D+4(Rasmussen)

That averages to D+7. That's a pretty reasonable estimate to where things are at right now.

[BudgieForce]

Northam won Taylor's district by 4 points. Its gonna be close regardless. And Limo, your post is a stretch even for you.

[BudgieForce]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

A poll showing dems picking up Issa's seat? Terrible news for Democrats./s

[BudgieForce]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

A poll showing dems picking up Issa's seat? Terrible news for Democrats./s

It’s not terrible, but it’s not exactly good when Issa’s seat is within the MOE on your own internal poll. Issa’s seat should be, in theory, among the easiest pickups in the country for Democrats.

Its an R+1 district in a state democrats have supposedly maxed out support in. I don't think its a bad result all things considered.

[BudgieForce]

I'm genuinely not shocked at the soft CA numbers Democrats have been getting. They're is only so much support Democrats can ring out of California without Trump at the top of the ticket.

[BudgieForce]

I trust Gass enough to know they're not making it up.

[BudgieForce]

Morning Consult went from D+8 to D+5
YouGov went from D+4 to D+4
Rasmussen went from D+6 to D+8

An net overall tightening. Perhaps, Dems will start seeing the backlash to wanting to abolish ICE.

About a .3 tightening.

Dems in disarray...

[BudgieForce]

D+8 while Trump is only down 46/51 in approve/disapprove. Doubt he'll be in as good a shape on election day.

Fox's numbers for Trump have been remarkably stable. Their generic ballot numbers have not.

[BudgieForce]

I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

[BudgieForce]

The weekly trackers.


Reuters/Ipsos: D+15 to D+10
Morning Consult: D+5 to D+8
Yougov: D+4 to D+8
Rasmussen: D+8 to D+5

These are becoming a wash every week.

I think it'd be more useful if we just combined the major online trackers and use the average as singular poll.

[BudgieForce]

And by the way, we had a CA-49 poll last week that had Levin up three points. Its a toss up.

[BudgieForce]

Reuters Ipsos 7/15-19

Democrats - 41 (-5)
Republicans - 37 (+4)

compared to 7/10-14 poll

Another huge swing from Ipsos for absolutely no reason. More reason to ignore online trackers.

Edit: Although I'm not sure where said results are.

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM1212Y17/filters/PD1:1

[BudgieForce]

The generic ballot aggregate will fluctuate. Try not to freak everybody.

[BudgieForce]

I can't believe 538 is actually using the discredited NBC poll.

Discredited?

[BudgieForce]

Usually sub-groups in polls are somewhat off. The more important number is the topline.

[BudgieForce]

This poll seems pretty unrealistic. I believe he's underwater, but not by that much, which calls the GCB numbers into question too. As we've seen with polls, non college educated voters tend to be underpolled.

Its Marist. I know its a rare sight here, but they're among the better pollsters.

[BudgieForce]

This poll seems pretty unrealistic. I believe he's underwater, but not by that much, which calls the GCB numbers into question too. As we've seen with polls, non college educated voters tend to be underpolled.

Hmm, another thing to consider too. No poll expected the Rust Belt/Midwestern collapse of Hillary to the extent of what went down election night.

If it makes you feel better, but I think its very possible the midwest is reverting back to pre-2016 lean dem levels. Hillary isnt on the ballot. The Obama voters who went Trump arent suddenly solid Republican votes in future elections.

[BudgieForce]

2 independents are running in ME-2 but we already knew that.

[BudgieForce]

I'm not sure about anyone else, but I've entirely stopped paying attention to the generic ballot. All the numbers we get are from iffy online trackers.

[BudgieForce]

CA-45: Global Strategy Group (D), July 26-31, 500 likely voters (live caller poll)

Mimi Walters (R, inc) 45%
Katie Porter 44%

Mimi Imfurst Walters was number third one in the voting I could NOT believe it

Do not attack her fans.