Rate TX-24 in 2022 (user search)
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  Rate TX-24 in 2022 (search mode)
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Poll
Question: How would you rate TX-24
#1
Safe R
#2
Likely R
#3
Lean R
#4
Tilt R
#5
Toss-up
#6
Tilt D
#7
Lean D
#8
Likely D
#9
Safe D
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Rate TX-24 in 2022  (Read 792 times)
MargieCat
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,583
United States


« on: February 24, 2021, 09:17:27 PM »

Not sure what redistricting will look like. It might even get delayed.

But assuming the same boundaries, how would you rate Van Duyne's race?

She will have two things going for her.
-The incumbency
-Possible red wave during a Biden midterm.

She has several things against her.
-Biden won this district by a whopping 5 points
-Trump will not be on the ballot
-Her opponent did not in-person canvas due to COVID, which will not be an issue in 2022 (democrats are going to in-person canvas next time even if COVID is still an isuse).

-She also refused to strip MTG of committee assignments and voted to overturn the election results. Those might help her or hurt her.

-Also, her rhetoric is somewhat inflammatory and seems kind of snotty.
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MargieCat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,583
United States


« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2021, 12:40:45 AM »

I recall speculation that she is voting this way because she is expecting to be given a seat that leans much more to the right.

That makes sense. I suspect Republicans are going to try to shore up not only her, but also Taylor, Crenshaw, McCaul, etc. and perhaps create an additional seat or two that will lean their way. They would be well advised to create one Democratic seat for the majority of Travis County. That would take a number of congressional districts out of contention for Democrats. Beto O'Rourke was able to come within single digits in several of them in 2018 thanks to his dominating performance in Travis.
If they were smart, they would pack most of Austin into a democratic sink that doesn't go down to San Antonio.

Then they could have John Carter's northern suburban district (Williamson County) be purplish.
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MargieCat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,583
United States


« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2021, 05:47:48 PM »

Beth doesn't seem too bright. She's in a Biden +5 district.

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