TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[MargieCat]

I believe Biden will carry Texas, but Cornyn will win re-election.

I know a lot of Republicans down here that think that Trump is the only problem with the GOP and plan to vote for Biden but all republicans downballot. You can explain to them that they (GOP members of congress) are enablers who support Trump's agenda and refuse to speak out, but at the end of the day, they are going out of their comfort zone by voting democratic on the presidential level. Asking them to support democrats downballot is simply too much for them.

[MargieCat]

I really wish Hegar received the unnecessary donations that McGarth got. Could've been put to use much more efficiently in Texas

I agree. As much as I hate mitch, he has no chance of being defeated.

With how close Beto got in a midterm, people really should have been donating to Hegar instead of McGrath.

[MargieCat]

I really wish Hegar received the unnecessary donations that McGarth got. Could've been put to use much more efficiently in Texas

I agree. As much as I hate mitch, he has no chance of being defeated.

With how close Beto got in a midterm, people really should have been donating to Hegar instead of McGrath.

Hegar has generally been considered a longshot until recently. Not that McGrath isn't, but I don't think this race was on a lot of people's radars once Beto turned down another run.

Hegar should be less of a longshot due to demographics and the fact that Beto got so close in a wave-year.

[MargieCat]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

Eh. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of Biden/Cornyn voters. Also anecdotally, no one is *excited* about Hegar. I like her, and I've voted for her, and my friends have too, but then they're like "So...if she wins...we get a Democrat in the Senate for 6 years.......and it's her??"

Sad. I really wish that Beto or Julian Castro had run. They would probably be running even with Biden.

People were very excited about Beto in 18. Same spirit just isn't there. I'll be pleasantly surprised if she can pull it off on the coattails.

Cornyn is not hated the same way as Cruz. That's not to say that Hegar won't win. But hatred of Ted Cruz helped Beto. Abbott performed much better than Cruz on the same ticket.

Of course Abbott in 2022 might have a harder battle than he had 2 years ago due to his handling of COVID and his voter suppression.

[MargieCat]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

Eh. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of Biden/Cornyn voters. Also anecdotally, no one is *excited* about Hegar. I like her, and I've voted for her, and my friends have too, but then they're like "So...if she wins...we get a Democrat in the Senate for 6 years.......and it's her??"

Sad. I really wish that Beto or Julian Castro had run. They would probably be running even with Biden.

People were very excited about Beto in 18. Same spirit just isn't there. I'll be pleasantly surprised if she can pull it off on the coattails.

Cornyn is not hated the same way as Cruz. That's not to say that Hegar won't win. But hatred of Ted Cruz helped Beto. Abbott performed much better than Cruz on the same ticket.

Of course Abbott in 2022 might have a harder battle than he had 2 years ago due to his handling of COVID and his voter suppression.

Isn't it true that Abbott is already facing a primary challenge from the right because of the mask mandate he imposed a few months ago? I wouldn't be surprised if he's in for a tougher fight during the next cycle, though given that it will probably be a Biden midterm, he should be favored for reelection.

He's going to have primary challengers should he choose to run again.

Supposedly, some far-right cowboy comedian name Chad Prather was talking up a big game but he is a joke.

Then there is Allen West who is a sociopath.

If Paxton and Patrick seek re-election the democrats will show up in full force. I doubt Paxton can seek re-election at this point.