Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[prag_prog]

There was a meltdown yesterday on twitter among Centrist/Center-Left Dems when someone reported that Katie Porter is endorsing Turner

[prag_prog]

I wonder if this election's result might end up being a good example of Simpson's paradox if Ryan wins

[prag_prog]

Ryan can kinda win even if Molinaro outperforms Trump's numbers in all the counties by 2+ points...for that to happen, you just need to have higher turnout % in Biden counties than the counties that Trump won

[prag_prog]

Ryan can kinda win even if Molinaro outperforms Trump's numbers in all the counties by 2+ points...for that to happen, you just need to have higher turnout % in Biden counties than the counties that Trump won

Seems to be the case. A lot of the redder counties that seem done or close to it (Greene, Broom, Scholarie), they're only at about 29-32%. Ulster meanwhile is at 37%+

yep. The turnout when compared to 2020 hasn't been uniform in all the counties. There seems to be significant differences in turnout % in these big counties vs the smaller ones

[prag_prog]

Ulster's turnout so far is almost 38% of 2020 election (few precints yet to be reported) whereas turnout in Greene (fully reported) was only 33% of 2020 election. These are some big differences in turnout % and these things matter.

[prag_prog]

DDHQ has Ryan +4,200 votes with almost 120K votes in.

[prag_prog]

The key thing here is the huge difference in turnout % so far in Biden counties..2-3 swings towards Molinaro won't matter if Biden counties have much higher turnout % than Trump Counties when you compare it vs 2020