2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Flabuckeye]

People are over freaking out about Miami-Dade.  They are above where they were at this point in 2016 which was the most votes ever out of the county....they are just late arriving by nature.

Haven’t you ever seen a Dolphins game?  No one there until Q2.  

[Flabuckeye]

Morning data file from the Florida DOE.   Statewide Democrats inching closer to their 2016 EV Turnout number.  Gains from yesterday

Dem-   43.2% (+3.4)
Rep-    36.7% (+4.1)
NPA-    27.4% (+2.8 )



Looking at County specifics-

Larger counties chugging along (go Palm Beach & Pinellas).  However, look at mid-size counties, doing quite well but that is to be expected given they are mostly retirement counties and have the time to vote mid-week.  I expect Larger counties to make a run this weekend (more working class & hopefully souls to the polls)



Note:  Democrats in 3 of Florida's 68 counties have already surpassed '16 EV Turnout.   This includes the relatively large Pasco County- Suburb of Tampa....hmmmmm.  

Democrats in many more counties will surpass EV numbers today.

[Flabuckeye]

Still not understanding the level of bedwetting on the Biden side. AZ and PA look brutal for the GOP right now, NC is showing pretty decent advantage, and NV is showing signs of a very typical Clark firewall. Texas is also looking like voting will be absurdly high.

Florida doesn't have great early signs, but dooming seems at odds with everything else.

It feels like Biden is at 2nd and Goal at the 1 yard line.   You know there are many plays to get that one yard, but you were stuffed at the goal line on four downs in 2016

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

Is there an issue with Seminole county, it is the lowest on all measures so far.  It is it a younger population county?

Seminole County had the 3rd largest % increase (of 68) in Democrat registrants from 2016 to 2020 from 98,117 to 116,625 a 19% increase, only surpassed by Collier and St. Johns Counties.  In raw votes they are doing good, but they are a bit behind in %.  Unsure of the demographic makeup of these new registrants

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

1) Again. Great job with this, really useful information.  Thank you!

2) Do you have a target for what Democrats should be aiming for by the end of early voting in terms of turnout?  I am thinking somewhere in the range of 65-70% turnout by the end of early voting would be great.

I don’t have a target but those numbers would be amazing given total turnout was 74.4%

Calling all data hounds.  One thing I do not have is 2016 total Florida Turnout by party by county.  Can’t find it anywhere. I know Dems were at 74.4% total, but don’t know what it was specifically for Miami Dade (of course I know total votes but not by party voter).  If anyone has access to this it would help me provide greater insight as we pass the 2016 county level EV Dem turnout over the next few days.   Would help us focus on the next goal

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Lighter day on Sunday, the journey continues...

Dem 48.2% (+2.2)
Rep  42.6% (+2.4)
NPA  31.7% (+1.9)




County Tracker-  Palm Beach becomes first large county to surpass Dem Early Vote Turnout.
14 other Mid-size to small counties (out of 68) have already done this.

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Republicans catching up, but Dems need to keep head down and get out the vote.
Today Florida EV will surpass the 6,607,004 total EVs in 2016.....  so, after accounting for a number of new registrants, the 'election day' impact will be minimized as cannibalization takes affect later in the week.

Dems 50.6% (+2.4)
Reps  46.1% (+3.5)
NPAs  34.1%  (+2.4)




Palm Beach, Pinellas and many Mid-Size Counties have already achieve 2016 EV Turnout Levels.  Also, I found the county level Total Election (All Dem votes) Turnout Levels and now have added those reference lines to the charts.

[Flabuckeye]

Here come the NPAs!!!!!

Florida Cumulative Total at 1pm

Dems  2,685,500   +63,017 today
Reps   2,383,218   + 91,215 today
NPAs   1,278,835   +129,907 today

[Flabuckeye]

Here come the NPAs!!!!!

Florida Cumulative Total at 1pm

Dems  2,685,500   +63,017 today
Reps   2,383,218   + 91,215 today
NPAs   1,278,835   +129,907 today

[/s]


I apologize....this is an error.   The twitter user I was quoting was wrong. 
The real numbers for today as of 5pm are now

Dems +110,008
Reps  +148,286
NPAs plus Others is +78,859

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Democrats achieve the EV turnout % from 2016 with 5 days of early voting left.  Next goal, to bank tons more turnout before Sunday so they can blow past the Final 74.5% number on election day and at least match Republicans in the low 80s.




Dems have surpassed '16 EV Turnout now in 40 of 68 counties.   For comparison, at this time, Republicans have only done this in 5 counties.

Miami Dade hits 50% of all Dems registered but along with Orange county needs to keep the pressure on.  Large Hillsborough County (Tampa) has achieved '16 EV Turnout.   This might not get so much press but Dems are doing quite well in small/mid size counties.  I expect one outcome might be Trump winning these counties at much lower margins vs. '16

[Flabuckeye]

It seems like at the current pace + a bit of an Election Day bump, Democrats will hit 80% turnout.  Do Florida experts think this is enough?  

All I want for Xmas is
1). 80%+ Turnout statewide,
2).  Dems  at least match 2016 turnout level 74.3% in Miami Dade (that is 170K more votes from now)
and 3).  NPAs to exceed their 2016 levels overall

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Dems proceed beyond 2016 EV Turnout but Republicans catching up.   Just need to keep at same level as Reps in the end.  NPAs will hit their 2016 EV % today

Dems  56.4% (+2.8 )
Reps   53.9%  (+3.7)
NPAs   40.2%  (+3.0)





Democratic Behemoth Broward and Duval (JAX) on pace to achieve 2016 EV Turnout this morning.  Democrats have achieved already in 54/68 counties.   All the talk about Miami-Dade but they are quietly banking 3% each day.    Pinellas past  60% of all Dem voters!

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

All party designations have surpassed their total 2016 EV Turnout %.  This is especially huge for NPAs which had the largest registration gain statewide of +663,357 since 2016.  More than both Reps and Dems.

Dems 59.0% (+2.6)
Reps  57.4%  (+3.5)
NPAs  43.2%  (+3.0)




EV Totals have been achieved in almost all counties except Miami Dade who will hit this today.  For all of the hand wringing--- do you realize Miami Dems hit 343,121 in all of EV in 2016 and are above that raw number today, with three days left at 355,174?

Reps are doing well from a raw vote standpoint- but they should, they increased voter registration from 2016 by a larger margin in the county.
Republican increase +56,011 to 428,415
Democratic increase +48,285 to 634,092
But I bet you didn’t know…NPAs increased a whopping +81,044 to 482,076 in M-D

It would be huge if NPAs achieve the same turnout % as 2016 with an increase in registration of 20% in one cycle.  Current NPA status with the higher denominator in M-D is 46.8%, it was 49.6% at the end of EV in ’16.    😊

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Rep & Dems now neck and neck on turnout, both blowing past Total '16 EV turnout.

Dems 61.8%  (+2.8 )
Reps  61.1%  (+3.7)
NPAs  46.5%  (+3.3)

Commentary:  2020 is not 2016. Today's Dem lead of 116,051 is more than the final EV lead in 2016 of 96,450.....with 1.7 Million more votes cast (deeply cannibalizing election day)





Miami-Dade joins all other counties in achieving 2016 EV Turnout with two days left.  
Margin heavy Broward lunges forward coming closer to almost 2/3 of registered Dems.

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Dems and Reps nearly tied for turnout....however, higher registration gives Dems 94,905 lead...nearly identical to close of 2016 EV.....but some 2 million votes later.

8,700,645 votes cast in Florida so far compared to entire 2016 election of 9,420,039 leaving 700K votes to surpass 2016.

Dems 64.3% (+2.5)
Reps  64.1% (+3.0)
NPAs  49.4% (+2.9)




All counties now blowing past 2016 Dem EV turnout in route to total turnout

Fun fact,  in 15 of Florida's 68 counties, Democrats have already surpassed Hillary Clinton's 2016 Total votes for the county....and this is without ANY NPAs or Rs.

[Flabuckeye]

There are a lot of voters left in Florida — not anything close to what it's been in the past, but certainly enough to wipe out a 90,000 vote advantage

But this underestimates any NPA effect.  

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

With the last day of EV Dems stay on top for turnout.  This is a 2 point swing compared to 2016 where Reps were ahead by 1.8 pts in term of turnout at the end of EV.

Great job getting to 2/3rds turnout before Election Day!

Dems 66.2%  (+1.9 gain yesterday)
Reps  65.9%  (+1.8 )
NPAs  51.5%  (+2.1)





As far as the counties go, no one can say Dems haven't turned out.... amazing turnout so far in very large counties!  Blowing past 2016 EV numbers.  Whatever happens in crazy Florida, we Dems down here have put up a good fight.

[Flabuckeye]

Registered voters Florida:

2016:  12,863,773
2020: 14,441,869

RV gain of 1,578,096

based on the trajectory of the chart below, wouldn't be out of bounds to say both Rs and Ds hit 81% and NPAs achieve 65%

This would result in 10.9M votes or 1.9M on Election Day

[Flabuckeye]

Miami early vote is over 1 million.  Highest turnout ever I believe.

it's basically 30% R, 40% D, 30% I.

Anyone have an idea how independents are likely to vote there?

Registered voters left in Miami Dade

Dem: 226,000
Rep:  120,000
NPA:  204,000

[Flabuckeye]

Miami early vote is over 1 million.  Highest turnout ever I believe.

it's basically 30% R, 40% D, 30% I.

Anyone have an idea how independents are likely to vote there?

Registered voters left in Miami Dade

Dem: 226,000
Rep:  120,000
NPA:  204,000

How do Trumpy Cubans tend to register? GOP or NPA?

Hard core GOP, perhaps a few youngins NPA...but then they would be persuadeable

[Flabuckeye]

Miami early vote is over 1 million.  Highest turnout ever I believe.

it's basically 30% R, 40% D, 30% I.

Anyone have an idea how independents are likely to vote there?

Registered voters left in Miami Dade

Dem: 226,000
Rep:  120,000
NPA:  204,000

How do Trumpy Cubans tend to register? GOP or NPA?

Hard core GOP, perhaps a few youngins NPA...but then they would be persuadeable

So NPA's are likely to break toward Biden?

Polls suggest so....NYT/Siena suggests 47%-37%, but we shall see.   I'm just rooting for as many as possible to show up.   If turnout is high among NPAs, that means young folk turnout is high....good for Biden

[Flabuckeye]

This is huge.... if we can trust it.

I know we all are down on TargetSmart for Modeled Party, however, what about demographics like age and education?  Should just be from the voter file, right?

Here is total 2016 Florida Election compared to where we are now in 2020 (TargetSmart is a few days behind in numbers at 8.4M).

If this can be trusted:
-Florida has already hit same amount of college educated whites
-Has a bit to go on AAs but like people have been saying, some like to vote on ED.
-By FAR the biggest takeaway.  Non-College whites are 1.2 Million less than in 2016. That is an immense amount to make up on ED.

[Flabuckeye]

This is huge.... if we can trust it.

I know we all are down on TargetSmart for Modeled Party, however, what about demographics like age and education?  Should just be from the voter file, right?

Here is total 2016 Florida Election compared to where we are now in 2020 (TargetSmart is a few days behind in numbers at 8.4M).

If this can be trusted:
-Florida has already hit same amount of college educated whites
-Has a bit to go on AAs but like people have been saying, some like to vote on ED.
-By FAR the biggest takeaway.  Non-College whites are 1.2 Million less than in 2016. That is an immense amount to make up on ED.

Education wouldn't be in the voter file; that part must be modeled.

Damn.  I don’t trust any of their “modeling”

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Closing the loop, adding the VBM stragglers from yesterday.   At the end of EV, Reps and NPAs increase their turnout by 11pts from 2016.  Dems increase by 13pts. and are closing in on total 2016 turnout.





County level data is almost off the charts for Dems....time to close strong!