2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321219558674436098?s=20

I'm a bit surprised that early voters skew Republican in Georgia.

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321889961587560448?s=20

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321866936049897476?s=20

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321866936049897476?s=20

Which state is this, Asta?

I think Nate just means the entire electorate.

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321866936049897476?s=20

Which state is this, Asta?

North Carolina

You're right. Thanks for the correction.

[Asta]

I don't get why folks are acting like Biden being the underdog in FL is a reason to freak out.  It's not even the only chance for an election night knock out blow, much less a state Biden needs to win.  Honestly, Trump probably is favored there, but Florida is basically the only state where the numbers aren't looking great for Biden.

Because in case there is a huge polling miss in Midwest, then Democrats have to make up ground from somewhere like FL, NC and GA.

FL was the closest state margin-wise in 2016 of the three, and is where they can make up huge chunk of lost votes. Trump may declare mail ballots fraudulent baselessly and just throw the election into chaos. Winning FL is the ultimate knockout blow to him. But at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if NC and GA vote to the left of FL.

[Asta]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far

"In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows."

You're right in a way but in PA's case, black voters may prefer to vote in person on Election Day. We'll see.

[Asta]

Someone on CNN just claimed that Democratic internal numbers show that Biden is winning the early votes already cast by a larger margin than the public models are showing...

Public models are going to be inaccurate because it's an estimate based on demographics and primary voting history. TargetSmart is the caricature of bad modeling.

Internal numbers are probably based on tracing back voters record based on their voter's file. Nate Cohn has shown numbers like 82-18 in WI for Biden. We know those numbers are more credible than TargetSmart's that shows a single digit lead for Democrats.

Not trying to spoil the party, but I don't know if the guy on CNN is disclosing anything new.

[Asta]

http://steveschale.com/

"So far, roughly 2 out of every 3 registered Florida Democratic and Republican voter has voted.  Honestly, there aren't that many more people left to vote.  In terms of actual voters - I suspect Democrats will go into Election Day (including today VBM) with a lead somewhere between 110-115K voters.  Republicans have about 150K more high propensity voters than do the Democrats left to vote.  Democrats have 150K or more low propensity voters to vote.  Where all that lands tomorrow is the difference between winning and losing....


So here are some things I am going to watch for tomorrow.

First - the "swing counties."  There were four:  Jefferson (rural North Florida), Monroe (The Conch Republic), St. Lucie (Palm Beach media market), Pinellas (St. Petersburg/Clearwater).  Beyond this, there are two counties that I suspect will flip if Biden wins:  Duval (Jacksonville), and Seminole (suburban Orlando). I will likely go look at Pinellas and Duval first - mostly because they both have a history of returning VBM/EV pretty quickly.  

Next: the "base counties" - I want to see how Dade is doing.  I don't expect Biden to hit Clinton levels, but I would like to see him hit margins around Obama 2012. I also want to see Broward next door. I think there is a decent chance Broward hits margins enough to make up any loss from Clinton in Dade. Palm Beach is usually slow to report - but they have changed some things up, so hopefully we will get an early read there."

He hasn't really said anything insightful other than above. Seems like he's clueless how Florida will go this year.  

It all depends on how much Democrats will turn out tomorrow to reduce Republican advantage.