Is Trump a lock to win the general election?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let's see...it's 8 months before the election...the polls are within the margin of error...there are a whole bunch of pending situations for Trump...

In short: not just no, but this is an incredibly dumb question.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden can still win. And I can still sprout wings and learn to fly. Doesn't mean those things will happen though.

One of these things is not like the other. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden can still win.

That’s the most optimistic you’ve been of Biden ever.

You always move the goalposts.

“October 7th locked up the election for Trump”
“The Hur report locked up the election for Trump”
“SCOTUS locked up the election for Trump”

Did you look at the context? What I mean is that Biden winning would be about as likely as me gaining the power of flight spontaneously.

Let me ask you this:

If the polls were flipped -- if Biden were a few points ahead on average instead of Trump -- would you then say that Biden was a lock?  Answer yes or no, and explain why.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden can still win.

That’s the most optimistic you’ve been of Biden ever.

You always move the goalposts.

“October 7th locked up the election for Trump”
“The Hur report locked up the election for Trump”
“SCOTUS locked up the election for Trump”

Did you look at the context? What I mean is that Biden winning would be about as likely as me gaining the power of flight spontaneously.

Let me ask you this:

If the polls were flipped -- if Biden were a few points ahead on average instead of Trump -- would you then say that Biden was a lock?  Answer yes or no, and explain why.

No, because polling tends to underestimate Trump whenever he's on the ballot.

LMAO!  At least you openly admit your pro-Trump hackery.  Trump's consistently UNDERperformed his polls throughout these primaries.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden can still win.

That’s the most optimistic you’ve been of Biden ever.

You always move the goalposts.

“October 7th locked up the election for Trump”
“The Hur report locked up the election for Trump”
“SCOTUS locked up the election for Trump”

Did you look at the context? What I mean is that Biden winning would be about as likely as me gaining the power of flight spontaneously.

Let me ask you this:

If the polls were flipped -- if Biden were a few points ahead on average instead of Trump -- would you then say that Biden was a lock?  Answer yes or no, and explain why.

No, because polling tends to underestimate Trump whenever he's on the ballot.

LMAO!  At least you openly admit your pro-Trump hackery.  Trump's consistently UNDERperformed his polls throughout these primaries.

You can't equate primaries to general elections.

Hmm, let's review your last sentence from the previous post:

"No, because polling tends to underestimate Trump whenever he's on the ballot."

Does anyone see the words primary or general election on there?  No? 

You get called out on some point and you move the goal posts.  It happens time after time.  You doom and concern troll and don't argue in good faith.  You promise to leave if you're wrong, and then don't.  It's just tiresome, and I'm not speaking only for myself here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The problem for Biden is that the economy is trending the wrong direction right now.

It's entirely reasonable to say that Biden has problems; I'll be the first to acknowledge that he does.  It's entirely reasonable to say that at this point Trump is probably a slight favorite.  But it's entirely absurd to say that anyone is a lock this far in advance of the election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Would a Biden turnaround in the polls and victory be unprecedented, or has something similar happened before?

Have you forgotten 2016 already?

[GeorgiaModerate]

No, but he probably has to either die or Biden has to be replaced with a different Democratic nominee for Trump to lose.

Here you go again.
Like a broken record.

Polling supports this idea.

The RCP average shows Trump up by 2%, 47.1 to 45.1.  2%!!!  That's not even outside the margin of error and it's eight months before the election.  

In February/March 1980, President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 29% and 25% in Gallup polls; he led by 6% in the 3-way race with John Anderson.  Source

In March 1992, President George H.W. Bush led Bill Clinton by 19% and Ross Perot by 20%.  Source

In early March 2004, John Kerry led President George W. Bush by 6%.  Source

In late March 2008, John McCain led Barack Obama by 4%.  Source

Quick quiz: what did Carter, GHW Bush, Kerry, and McCain all have in common in those elections?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some of you in here are claiming that Trump is "heavily favored" to win right now. Yet, there's no material evidence to support that (outside of bunk polling).

Some of you are just talking and saying anything lol.

Yes, they are either trolling or they don't understand how little predictive value polling has at this point.  Or both; I guess they're not mutually exclusive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who was the last incumbent to have approvals as bad as Biden? Hoover?

Everything is in Trump's favor right now.

Truman's were slightly lower at this point in his first term.  GHWB was about the same and on the way down.  Carter was in the midst of a mild uptick and was a bit higher at this point, but was lower before and after. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who was the last incumbent to have approvals as bad as Biden? Hoover?

Everything is in Trump's favor right now.

Not everything, so he's not a lock just the favourite.

There are unknows, like the state of the economy, foreign policy crisis, Biden forced out by his party (growing talk about the Convention from establishment people with inside knowledge) ect ect.

Citation needed, please. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who was the last incumbent to have approvals as bad as Biden? Hoover?

Everything is in Trump's favor right now.

Truman's were slightly lower at this point in his first term.  GHWB was about the same and on the way down.  Carter was in the midst of a mild uptick and was a bit higher at this point, but was lower before and after. 

Truman was also lower atp

Please read the first sentence of my post again.