Election models megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current comparison of the online models I know of; if you know of any others, please post a link. 

Senate D chances (most to least):

538 Lite 82%
538 Classic 79%
Economist 78%
538 Deluxe 70%
JHK 61.7%
DDHQ 58.8%

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 82.8%
JHK 77.8%
Economist, 538 Classic, 538 Deluxe 74%
538 Lite 61%

Update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 82 (+4)
538 Lite 81 (-1)
538 Classic 79 (nc)
538 Deluxe 71 (+1)
JHK 64.1 (+2.4)
DDHQ 63.3 (+4.5)



House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 80 (-2.
JHK 75.9 (-1.9)
538 Classic 71 (-3)
538 Deluxe 71 (-3)
Economist 68 (-6)
538 Lite 59 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is an interesting looking modeling and analysis site that I stumbled across this morning: https://split-ticket.org/.  They currently have:

House: 217 R, 200 D, 18 tossup.

Senate: 49 D, 48 R, 3 tossup (GA, NV, WI).

Governor: 25 D, 21 R, 4 tossup (AZ, KS, NV, WI).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1572607679910260740

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dem House chances now 1 point ahead of Republican Senate chances on 538 default

That was also briefly the case yesterday, before GOP chance in the House jumped back to 72 in 100. Now 70 in 100 again, via deluxe model.

Minor fluctuation from one model run to another is quite normal.  Don't read too much into those little blips in either direction.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ladies and Gentlemen, FiveThirtyEight's Deluxe model has Republican chances for the House at 69% now. Lowest on record this cycle.

It dropped after they added the D+12 GCB poll from Premise, which (let's be honest) is clearly ridiculous. (I'm not saying don't include it in the average; that's what averages are for.  But don't be surprised when it's enough to move averages and models.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver: The Polls Still Do Not Show A GOP Bounce Back

[GeorgiaModerate]

As if there wasn't enough uncertainty already this year...

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1574047619135012864

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here are the current 538 polling averages in the competitive (including remotely competitive) states:

AZ D+7.4
CO D+9.1
FL R+3.8
GA D+2.1
NH D+7.5
NV D+0.7
NC R+0.3
OH D+0.6
PA D+6.5
UT R+7.0
WI R+1.0

I suspect that if you showed this to Democratic strategists back around March, they'd have been wildly ecstatic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current comparison of the online models I know of; if you know of any others, please post a link. 

Senate D chances (most to least):

538 Lite 82%
538 Classic 79%
Economist 78%
538 Deluxe 70%
JHK 61.7%
DDHQ 58.8%

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 82.8%
JHK 77.8%
Economist, 538 Classic, 538 Deluxe 74%
538 Lite 61%

Update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 82 (+4)
538 Lite 81 (-1)
538 Classic 79 (nc)
538 Deluxe 71 (+1)
JHK 64.1 (+2.4)
DDHQ 63.3 (+4.5)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 80 (-2.
JHK 75.9 (-1.9)
538 Classic 71 (-3)
538 Deluxe 71 (-3)
Economist 68 (-6)
538 Lite 59 (-2)

Time for another update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 81 (-1)
538 Lite 78 (-3)
538 Classic 75 (-4)
538 Deluxe 68 (-3)
JHK 67.0 (+2.9)
DDHQ 63.5 (+0.2)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 77.7 (-2.3)
JHK 72.4 (-3.5)
538 Classic 68 (-3)
538 Deluxe 68 (-3)
Economist 65 (-3)
538 Lite 60 (+1)

The thing that jumps out to me is that both Senate D and House R chances have generally decreased, i.e. that uncertainty is increasing across the board.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current comparison of the online models I know of; if you know of any others, please post a link. 

Senate D chances (most to least):

538 Lite 82%
538 Classic 79%
Economist 78%
538 Deluxe 70%
JHK 61.7%
DDHQ 58.8%

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 82.8%
JHK 77.8%
Economist, 538 Classic, 538 Deluxe 74%
538 Lite 61%

Update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 82 (+4)
538 Lite 81 (-1)
538 Classic 79 (nc)
538 Deluxe 71 (+1)
JHK 64.1 (+2.4)
DDHQ 63.3 (+4.5)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 80 (-2.
JHK 75.9 (-1.9)
538 Classic 71 (-3)
538 Deluxe 71 (-3)
Economist 68 (-6)
538 Lite 59 (-2)

Time for another update:

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 81 (-1)
538 Lite 78 (-3)
538 Classic 75 (-4)
538 Deluxe 68 (-3)
JHK 67.0 (+2.9)
DDHQ 63.5 (+0.2)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 77.7 (-2.3)
JHK 72.4 (-3.5)
538 Classic 68 (-3)
538 Deluxe 68 (-3)
Economist 65 (-3)
538 Lite 60 (+1)

The thing that jumps out to me is that both Senate D and House R chances have generally decreased, i.e. that uncertainty is increasing across the board.

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 80 (-1)
538 Lite 79 (+1)
538 Classic 75 (nc)
DDHQ 67.5 (+4.0)
538 Deluxe 67 (-1)
JHK 67.0 (nc)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 77.4 (-0.3)
JHK 72.3 (-0.1)
538 Classic 69 (+1)
538 Deluxe 69 (+1)
Economist 66 (+1)
538 Lite 61 (+1)

Not much change, except in the DDHQ Senate model.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here are the current 538 polling averages in the competitive (including remotely competitive) states:

AZ D+7.4
CO D+9.1
FL R+3.8
GA D+2.1
NH D+7.5
NV D+0.7
NC R+0.3
OH D+0.6
PA D+6.5
UT R+7.0
WI R+1.0

I suspect that if you showed this to Democratic strategists back around March, they'd have been wildly ecstatic.

Update:

AZ D+6.0 (-1.4)
CO D+9.3 (+0.2)
FL R+4.6 (+0.
GA D+3.9 (+1.
NH D+8.0 (+0.5)
NV R+1.4 (+2.1 - flipped)
NC R+0.7 (+0.4)
OH D+1.6 (+1.0)
PA D+6.6 (+0.1)
UT R+7.0 (nc)
WI R+1.9 (+0.9)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1578195390850924545
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1578196153447088128

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 has removed the Center Street PAC Polls from their Model!

They're still visible on their polling page; go to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ and enter "Center Street" in the search box.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here are the current 538 polling averages in the competitive (including remotely competitive) states:

AZ D+7.4
CO D+9.1
FL R+3.8
GA D+2.1
NH D+7.5
NV D+0.7
NC R+0.3
OH D+0.6
PA D+6.5
UT R+7.0
WI R+1.0

I suspect that if you showed this to Democratic strategists back around March, they'd have been wildly ecstatic.

Update:

AZ D+6.0 (-1.4)
CO D+9.3 (+0.2)
FL R+4.6 (+0.
GA D+3.9 (+1.
NH D+8.0 (+0.5)
NV R+1.4 (+2.1 - flipped)
NC R+0.7 (+0.4)
OH D+1.6 (+1.0)
PA D+6.6 (+0.1)
UT R+7.0 (nc)
WI R+1.9 (+0.9)

Another update:

Update:

AZ D+6.7 (+0.7)
CO D+7.9 (+1.4)
FL R+4.6 (nc)
GA D+4.0 (+0.1)
NH D+7.8 (-0.2)
NV R+0.7 (-0.7)
NC R+1.6 (+0.9)
OH D+0.3 (-1.3)
PA D+6.0 (-0.6)
UT R+7.6 (+0.6)
WI R+2.9 (+1.0)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current models, with change from last update (Oct. 6):

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 81 (+1)
538 Lite 77 (-2)
538 Classic 73 (-2)
DDHQ 66.8 (-0.7)
538 Deluxe 66 (-1)
JHK 66.9 (-0.1)

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 75.7 (-1.7)
JHK 73.9 (+1.6)
538 Classic 71 (+2)
538 Deluxe 71 (+2)
Economist 65 (-1)
538 Lite 64 (+3)

A small but noticeable improvement for the Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting 538 article on how betting markets have diverged from the major election models recently, specifically that the betting markets seem to have priced in a much larger movement toward Republicans than the models have.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/betting-markets-are-treating-the-midterm-elections-like-its-a-presidential-election/

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is interesting: Echelon Insights has an interactive tool that provides an estimated district-level breakdown of turnout by demographic groups, as well as totals by state.

https://echeloninsights.com/turnout-2022/

They also predict total turnout for this year's elections will be 125,655,745.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current models, with change from last update (Oct. 12):

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 80 (-1)
538 Lite 74 (-3)
538 Classic 70 (-4)
JHK 64.0 (-2.9)
538 Deluxe 62 (-4)
DDHQ 61.4 (-5.4)


House R chances (most to least):

JHK 80.7 (+6.
DDHQ 77.8 (+2.1)
538 Classic 73 (+2)
538 Deluxe 73 (+2)
538 Lite 67 (+3)
Economist 65 (nc)

Significant movement toward the Republicans since the last update.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 polling averages for key Senate races (change since Oct. 6):

AZ D+6.0 (-0.7)
CO D+7.9 (nc)
FL R+4.6 (nc)
GA D+3.7 (-0.3)
NH D+7.8 (nc)
NV R+0.7 (nc)
NC R+2.1 (+0.5)
OH R+0.2 (+0.3, flipped)
PA D+5.7 (-0.3)
UT R+7.8 (+0.2)
WI R+2.9 (nc)

Slight improvement for Republicans in some races.

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL, GeorgiaModerate is dying by these Models.

It's VOTES that count, not MODELS!

I don't live or die by them.  I just report them because I like numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current models, with change from last update (Oct. 12):

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 80 (-1)
538 Lite 74 (-3)
538 Classic 70 (-4)
538 Deluxe 62 (-4)
DDHQ 61.4 (-5.4)
JHK 64.0 (-2.9)

House R chances (most to least):

JHK 80.7 (+6.
DDHQ 77.8 (+2.1)
538 Classic 73 (+2)
538 Deluxe 73 (+2)
538 Lite 67 (+3)
Economist 65 (nc)

Significant movement toward the Republicans since the last update.

Where do you see this being on election day if this is the case?

If this week's level of movement continued, holding the Senate would be a tossup at best and the House would be very likely to flip.  But it's sheer folly to assume a straight-line extrapolation of one week's movement; last week there was very slight movement, and a few weeks ago the trend was moving in the other direction.  The current trend might continue, stop, or reverse again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current models, with change from last update (Oct. 18).  The Economist models have been frozen since Oct. 16.  I sent G. Elliott Morris a DM asking about this but didn't get a response (I'm sure he gets tons of them).


Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 80 (not updated since Oct. 16)
538 Lite 69 (-5)
538 Classic 65 (-5)
JHK 58.6 (-5.4)
538 Deluxe 56 (-6)
DDHQ 55.9 (-5.5)


House R chances (most to least):

JHK 86.5 (+5.
538 Deluxe 81 (+8)
538 Classic 80 (+7)
DDHQ 79.1 (+1.3)
538 Lite 73 (+6)
Economist 65 (not updated since Oct. 16)


Strong movement toward the Republicans since the last update.  Previously the consensus looked to be around Lean D for Senate and Lean R for House, but it now looks more like Tilt D for Senate and Likely R for House.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 polling averages for key Senate races (change since Oct. 18):

AZ D+4.9 (-1.1)
CO D+8.8 (+0.9)
FL R+4.4 (-0.2)
GA D+3.7 (nc)
NH D+7.4 (-0.4)
NV R+0.2 (-0.5)
NC R+2.0 (-0.1)
OH R+0.9 (+0.7)
PA D+3.6 (-2.1)
UT R+7.8 (nc)
WI R+2.9 (nc)

This seems like noise-level movement, except in Pennsylvania.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IA should be included Change is a good pollster and Grassley is only ahead by 3

Iowa's average is Grassley+6.9.  If it gets any closer I'll include it next time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1584239922579324928