IndyRep has been banging this drum a lot recently, but I do think it's worth noting the absurd gap between predictions like these and predictions that races like PA-SEN are tossups. It's one or the other, folks.
Not really. There are far fewer Senate races than House races, so candidate quality in individual Senate races is important. One way to look at it: if this was a totally neutral environment, who would be favored in PA-SEN? I'm inclined to think Fetterman would be at least a small favorite. With that as a starting point, it's reasonable to consider the race a tossup in a pro-R environment; similarly, if it was a pro-D environment I'd expect Fetterman to win easily.
In the House, a 25-30 seat gain for Republicans is right where I'm at based on fundamentals, although I may lower this if it looks like Democratic anger/enthusiasm is sustained following the release of the
Dobbs decision.
