Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tonight's episode of the game show "Jeopardy!" featured this clue in the category "Bordering Russia":

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1499902789798952962

The caption with the recording date appeared on the screen along with the clue.  The show, which is taped well in advance, has been oddly prescient lately; an episode earlier this week featured the category "Modern War".

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/markhachman/status/1499617782299643907

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is so weird... At 0:17, you can see Putin's hand just going through the microphone. He's not in the room with those people:

https://twitter.com/danbarker/status/1500125004062679041

Putin is so magic, he can touch and walk through things others can't!

Nope, the truth is now out: Vladmir Putin is just a virtual simulation.  Have any of you ever actually met him in person?  I suspect not.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Liz_Cheney/status/1500225329595617286

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

So, then, could you please translate the article linked to one post above yours for everyone? Pretty please?

An English translation that someone made: https://pastebin.com/2agMRGmd

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1500633315426160642

[GeorgiaModerate]

First Germany rearming, now Japan is setting the political foundation for recovering the Kuril Islands. Let's gooo!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500891170964217862?s=20&t=JfyXOI...
There will certainly be no better time to retake (either through a bilateral agreement or military action) the Kurils than now.

What a way to claim the moral high ground against what you call an unjustified irrendentist invasion, by launching an unjustified irrendentist invasion against Russia. Never mind the fact that it would be a terrible geopolitical move as it raises the dormant scepter of Japanese imperialism which is still in living memory and hated in the region and risks having South Korea join Russia and China as they hold an island (Dokdo) similarly claimed by Japan.

"Scepter"?  Do you even know what that word means?

[GeorgiaModerate]

oh ffs

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1501292668013404163

Guess who they borrowed that line from, that's right, the Americans! Where did those Iraqi WMD's end up anyway? Those trailers from those grainy satellite photos that were supposed to be bioweapons labs? The supposed Saddam deal to buy uranium from Africa that turned out to be a fabrication?

You take whataboutism to a new level.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tensions are running high in this thread.  Can we please leave the personal insults out of it?

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's no way on God's green Earth that the Russians will be able defeat a country with people willing to defuse a 500 kilogram unexploded bomb during active fighting (shelling is heard in the background) wearing no protection beyond a police vest, using only a pair of gardening gloves and a water bottle.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1501654247619842049

Does this mean that Ukraine is the Florida of Europe?

I honestly expected the European Florida to be somewhere in the Balkans tbh

No, that was pre-breakup Yugoslavia.  For documentation, I submit the book Esprit de Corps by Lawrence Durrell (author of the famous "Alexandria Quartet"), a set of (hilarious) stories based on his experiences in the British diplomatic corps there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So I was just skimming through the Russia invades Georgia thread we had and it reminded me that that invasion took place around the same time as an Olympics in Beijing.  Weird heh?

The obvious conclusion here is that the Olympics must never again be scheduled in Beijing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If nothing else, this war has proved what Tom Clancy predicted in Red Storm Rising back in 1984: the most dangerous problem for a modern tank force against another modernised army is the enemy tanks, but the enemy missile teams.

I think there's a missing word there?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1501942349550653443

[GeorgiaModerate]

Update to Belarus' situation. Lukashenko is the physical embodiment of the megalomaniac post-Soviet dictator stereotype, but he's not stupid:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502630211644534787?s=20&t=XaXvZul2p...

It's totally speculative on my part, but I wonder if a large contingent of the Belarusian forces would just surrender en masse once entering Ukraine. Some, I assume, would even be willing to start fighting for the Ukrainians.

Seems perfectly reasonable if 1) there is somebody to surrender to, and 2) it is not perceived that there is a substantial prospect of being picked up later and hung as traitors, and 3) they are willing to face the prospect of not being able to go home again until there is a regime change.  It is far easier to surrender when it is clear "your side" has lost, and a regime change on your side looks likely.

Here's a story I was told by someone who was deployed in Iraq during the first few days of Desert Storm; whether it actually happened this way I can't say.  He and another soldier were on a recon.  On the way to rejoin their unit, their vehicle broke down and they were stranded in the desert.  They radioed for help but it was at least an hour away.  Five minutes later, a string of Iraqi soldiers, at least platoon strength, appeared over a nearby hill.  They weren't shooting and there was nowhere to run or hide, so the two Americans just waited for them to approach.  The Iraqis halted, and their commander stepped forward and asked "You are American soliders?" (which was fairly obvious).  My friend responded "Yes, we are."  The Iraqi responded "We surrender."

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1504553418890756107

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1504578657687375872

[GeorgiaModerate]

The M-14 is an excellent weapon. Wood stocks swell in tropical climates, like Vietnam, and that earned them their poor reputation and led to their early replacement. That won't be an issue in notoriously not very tropical Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1505235699821420548?s=20&t=mD6X2jypiSSR...

That brings back some memories!  We used them in Junior ROTC when I was in high school in the early 1970s.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1505244711086444545

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is wild:

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1505642779795283968

[GeorgiaModerate]

Thomas Friedman prognosticates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/opinion/putin-zelensky-ukraine.html

1. The plan A's of Biden (Biden = NATO/EU), Zenensky and Putin did not work out well for Putin. Biden's sanctions really did bite, Zelensky stalemated the ground war, and Putin's lightening strike victory with lots of Quislings was a fail

2. Putin's plan B was to attack civilians, cause a mass refugee crisis, have them flood NATO counties, and force NATO to pressure Zelensky to give Putin a huge pound of flesh.

Friedman does not say how plan B is working out for Putin, but the NYT says the refugees in Europe are being flooded with job offers, and they have a big labor shortage. So that aspect of the plan strikes me as a massive fail. I also don't see Zelensky handing Putin the keys to the store due to turning his attention to taking out civilians rather than acquiring real estate.

If Putin's Plan B proves a fail, Plan C is for Putin to attack supply areas for Ukraine in Poland, and plan D is to launch chemical weapons and nukes. I don't believe it. If Putin bombs Poland, the chemical weapons and nukes will be hitting NATO troops in Ukraine, and ...  stop, I just don't think Putin is that nuts.

But my opinion is worth what you paid for it.

Torie, your opinions are worth at least twice the price!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1505907681382576132

[GeorgiaModerate]

You agree that the US response should be to send more troops to Europe? I don't quite understand how that is proportional.

I got the NYC would be destroyed bit from the TNR article actually:

"It’s difficult to know exact details of Russia’s stockpile, given its lack of transparency. Larry Korb, with the Center for American Progress, says that any tactical weapon “is still pretty powerful.” One that was detonated over New York City, for example, would destroy the city, while a full strategic nuclear weapon would destroy the entire state."

This is completely unrealistic unless we're talking about a state like Rhode Island or Delaware.  There are no nuclear weapons powerful enough for a single bomb to come remotely close to destroying New York State.

Try the simulator at https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/.  You can specify ground zero and the yield in kilotons, among other options.  For reference, the Hiroshima bomb had a yield of 15 to 20 kilotons, while the largest ever tested (the Soviet "Tsar Bomba") was around 50 megatons, or 50000 kilotons.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why dismiss top generals and put them on house arrest? Just send them to the front lines

To the Russian Ukrainian front?

[GeorgiaModerate]

2 > 0 though...so do abstentions in the UN effectively count as no votes?

A resolution in the Security Council needs nine yes votes to pass, and no vetoes by the big five.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1507080906334425089