DC Unrest Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN is running a special Sunday night (10pm ET) called "The Trump Insurrection".

[GeorgiaModerate]

Even if he didn't, the fact the Democrats are seen in much more hostile light in terms of cultural messaging would have forced them to stick by Trump.

This touches on something I was discussing with a work colleague this afternoon.  The Republicans have indeed been successful recently in unfairly portraying the Democrats as the party that's out of touch with the values of mainstream Americans.  I think this first happened in the mid-1960s (when I was becoming politically aware), a time when one of the lasting images to most people was rioting in the cities that was tied to the Democrats in the minds of many.  This helped the Republicans take the Presidency in 5 of the next 6 elections (1968-1988), the only exception being Carter's narrow victory over Ford, who was unelected and damaged by Nixon and Watergate, and eventually led to Republican gains in Congress as well.  Essentially, it screwed the Democratic Party for a generation.

Now the same thing is likely to happen to Republicans.  The aftermath of Trump is going to leave a party that's deeply divided, and the image that will remain the strongest is the attack on the Capitol.  I won't be surprised if it's the GOP's turn to be screwed for a generation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Do you guys really think that Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski would jump ship, become an Independent and side with the Dems?

There's a thread on the Congressional board about this.  (IMO it's a real possibility.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Houston Chronicle, which is not what you'd call a bastion of liberalism, calls for Ted Cruz to resign:

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/editorials/article/Editorial-Resign-Senator-Cruz-Your-lies-cost-15857293.php

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/parlertakes/status/1347050705110986753

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/TomTaylorMade/status/1347915446897446916

LMAO

[GeorgiaModerate]

Derrick Evans, the WV state legislator charged with being part of the coup attempt, has resigned from the WV House of Delegates.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1348055794546257924

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1348077057687875585

MORE unstable???

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apparently Pence has not fully ruled out invocation of the 25th. https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1348083409743208448?s=20

Ten-to-one it is simply a story leaked to undermine impeachment attempts.

Or to keep Trump quiet. "Knock it off or it's the 25th for you."

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1348284578037960706

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any chance of Trump's approval rating falling to around 30% over the next week and a half, following his incitement of a terrorist attack?

I would love to see an average of polls showing him at 30% approval and 60% disapproval.

So far there's only one recurring poll that's been in the field since Jan. 6, the monthly NPR/Marist poll.  See my post in the Biden approval thread for full details, but Trump lost a net 11 points from the previous month to 38/58.  The net -20 is the worst of his presidency in this poll. 

I'm interested to see what the YouGov/Economist and Ipsos weekly trackers will show; they should be released Wednesday and Thursday.  I post these weekly in the Biden approval thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ABC News/Ipsos poll, Jan. 8-9, 570 adults

The question is "How much do you trust each of the following to protect democracy in the United States?" 

Donald Trump:

A great deal 16%
A good amount 14
Not so much 13
Not at all 56
Net: 30% trust (sum of first two categories), 69% distrust (sum of last two)

Joe Biden:

A great deal 26
A good amount 27
Not so much 17
Not at all 28
Net: 53/45

Mike Pence:

A great deal 15
A good amount 24
Not so much 35
Not at all 23
Net: 39/58

Republicans in Congress:

A great deal 9
A good amount 23
Not so much 39
Not at all 29
Net: 31/68

Democrats in Congress:

A great deal 17
A good amount 23
Not so much 17
Not at all 40
Net: 40/58

Nancy Pelosi:

A great deal 17
A good amount 23
Not so much 17
Not at all 40
Net: 40/58

Ted Cruz:

A great deal 10
A good amount 17
Not so much 25
Not at all 47
Net: 27/71

Mitt Romney:

A great deal 11
A good amount 30
Not so much 34
Not at all 22
Net: 41/56

Supreme Court:

A great deal 15
A good amount 44
Not so much 30
Not at all 9
Net: 60/38

Mitch McConnell:

A great deal 5
A good amount 18
Not so much 38
Not at all 37
Net: 22/75

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/1348305163107364864

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1348331437339119618

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1348334494571503618

Click to read the whole thread, which is very good.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1348308964979716104

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/rexchapman/status/1348347827173412866?s=10
This is monstrous

I'm no longer ashamed to admit that I hate this country.

Our country cannot be allowed to belong to these fascist terrorists

Of course not, but that doesn't mean that they're going away any time soon, particularly with how weak the response has been from both the Democratic Party, the GOP, and the cabinet. In any other country, this would be the beginning of a new era, and outside of arrests and an impeachment effort that will likely fail, nothing has substantially changed yet.

I'm very worried about the future of this country, and have been for some time.  If I weren't so old and settled I'd seriously consider emigrating.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/angry__saint/status/1348350058861797376

Loss of the PGA championship was already mentioned in this thread, but this is more extensive.

There have also been reports of several companies and organizations suspending donations to all Republicans who voted against certifying the electoral count.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1348284578037960706

Thank God. And I don't believe that is a hyperbolic statement whatsoever. Mass prosecution's of these people who almost universally escaped arrest on that day is a crucial part of History establishing the wrongness of this traitorous violent insurrection.

Now if they'll just go after the ringleader....

They have a very good defense. They were instructed to do so by the President of the United States. They believed they were doing the right thing.

The president told me to do it is not a legal defense to sedition. At all.

https://twitter.com/MinorLeagueBall/status/1348403425806053376

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1348656675599822855

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/EmmaKinery/status/1348628246435401728

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac (monthly), Jan. 7-10, 1239 RV

Approve 33 (-11)
Disapprove 60 (+9)

Strongly approve 26 (-10)
Strongly disapprove 54 (+7)

This is almost the worst showing ever for Trump in this poll; he was at 33/61 in July 2017.

The net change of 20 points since last month is extraordinary.  I don't recall ever seeing a shift that large.

60% think Trump is undermining democracy; 34% think he is protecting it.

53% think Trump should resign; 43% don't.

52% think Trump should be removed; 45% don't.

45% think Trump is mentally stable; 48% don't.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/EmmaKinery/status/1348628246435401728

Was Ben Shapiro actually suggesting the election was stolen?

Not to my knowledge.  He is employed there so the tweet is technically correct, but a little misleading as a result.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac (monthly), Jan. 7-10, 1239 RV

Approve 33 (-11)
Disapprove 60 (+9)

Strongly approve 26 (-10)
Strongly disapprove 54 (+7)

This is almost the worst showing ever for Trump in this poll; he was at 33/61 in July 2017.

The net change of 20 points since last month is extraordinary.  I don't recall ever seeing a shift that large.

60% think Trump is undermining democracy; 34% think he is protecting it.

53% think Trump should resign; 43% don't.

52% think Trump should be removed; 45% don't.

45% think Trump is mentally stable; 48% don't.

Quinnipiac was the most horrific pollster of 2020.

They were off by 13 points in OH, by 10 in FL and by 7 US-wide.

Trump’s probably down to around 40% right now.

Qpac has had a clear D lean the last few years, but I suspect Trump's approval is in the 30's.  Marist had it as 38/39 (adults/RV) last week, and Morning Consult is at 38 this morning.