2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let this remove any doubt that RCP is anything but a right-wing hack firm. This is bordering on Dick Morris levels of bad predictions.

But one of our resident right-wing hacks told me only yesterday that RCP has been the gold standard for decades!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

It's unlikely and I don't expect it, but it's not impossible if there's some polling error in their favor and inefficient distribution of Republican votes.  538's Deluxe model gives the Democrats a 16% chance -- the same as rolling a one on a six-sided die.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1589257511160655872

[GeorgiaModerate]

The ABC and NBC results aren't really that crazy, in that again, most of the nonpartisan pollsters have averaged out to a close tie most of the time (we just had a ton of them converge on R+1/tie/D+1 in the last week or so, and these two are no different)

Civiqs has been a bit more bullish for Dems, as has Morning Consult/Politico.

Morning Consult's midterm tracker though is tied, while YouGov/Economist is tied now too. Yahoo has found closer to D+2 while CBS/YouGov has been closer to R+2.

Essentially, when you cut out all of the outliers, everything has generally been close to a tied result. Even the last ABC/Wapo and NYT/Siena polls were close to a tie among RV; it was their LV models that were a bit outlier-ish.

Split Ticket's nonpartisan pollster GCB aggregator currently has D+0.1 (46.9-46.8 ).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1589397733361668096

[GeorgiaModerate]

The west coast results look a bit discordant…especially Mike Levin losing while Salinas wins in OR-06; very weird given what Oregon is looking like atm.

It also does not take into account the apocalyptic rain on Tuesday in SoCal. Not a single soul will dare leave their house or workplace to vote lest they drown in the half inch of precipitation.

The rain is not going to have any effect on any races unless they’re Mike Garcia 2020 close.

But I was told:

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/LoganR2WH/status/1588642750647386112

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does Data for Progress have any significant R house effect? Because a poll of this kind is concerning...GCB polls have been a big bright spot for Ds this cycle...

Hard to say. They’ve definitely been pretty right-leaning this cycle, and they whiffed the NY-19 special pretty hard (Molinaro +8, compared to the actual result of Ryan +3). But that could be a consistent house effect, or it could just be them being a bad pollster!

That's true. I guess we'll see in a day how good their polls were...and we'll see in another cycle or two if they have any consistent house effect...maybe they have more bullish methodology which produces better results.
Are any other GCB polls showing an R advantage? And if so, how many?

Both RCP and 538 show a R advantage in the Generic ballot.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

Huh. I guess I haven't seen as many GCB polls as I should have. Ds better hope the (likely miniscule) R advantage (if it indeed manifests) is inefficient this November, wasted on blowout margins in rurals.

There's also Split Ticket's GCB aggregate, which includes only nonpartisan pollsters.  It's currently at D+0.2 (47.1-46.9).

https://split-ticket.org/2022-nonpartisan-generic-ballot-aggregate/

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1589700815899328512

And if it went to R/O? The Senate would be decided in January for a second time.

The run-off is in early December this year.  I'm not sure why it was in January last year (maybe because of the simultaneous special election). Tbh it seems like it should not be legal to hold a run-off after the Senate is sworn in on Jan. 3.

Summary: the runoff period was originally 3 or 4 weeks after Election Day for both state and federal elections.  A federal lawsuit on the grounds that military/overseas voters didn't have enough time in that scenario caused the federal runoff period to be pushed several weeks further, while the state remained at 4 weeks (this is why Georgia had split runoffs in 2020).  However, last year's election law changes removed the difficulty by sending RCV ballots to the military/overseas voters, allowing the state and federal runoffs to be reunified at 4 weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone familiar with this ratings site?  https://www.racetothewh.com/.  I just stumbled on it -- talk about last minute.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1589767818895319040