AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wonder if Ducey is regretting his decision not to enter the senate race after Kemp and Raffensperger won in Georgia.

When is Arizona's filing deadline?

Ducey would easily be able to get establishment support from Rick Scott and Mitch McConnell.

The filing deadline was April 4.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1541080816310259713

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1544832049101488128

[GeorgiaModerate]

Brnovich ran such a bad campaign it's hilarious. He might somehow still get second but I just don't see how he can win at this point. I will be voting for Blake Masters, he is a really smart guy and has potential to be a great senator. His messaging against Mark Kelly is already miles better than McSally's was, although tbf McSally was kind of doomed regardless.

What makes Masters stronger than McSally and don’t you think Masters will turn off moderate Republicans in Maricopa county?

Because McSally became a meme. If the first thing people know about you is 'lost two elections in two years' you don't have much room to redefine yourself.

That doesn't explain her losses though. When she ran in 2018 she hadn't lost at all and when she lost in 2020 she only lost once.

Oddly, she lost both races by almost the exact same margin in percentage terms.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1553494334212698112

I haven't found any independent reports of such calls, so who knows...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Posting this here because it probably represents the final nail in Brno's political coffin:

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1554255724062117890

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1554445040793141248

[GeorgiaModerate]

DDHQ's rating boundaries are strange.  Not only is the boundary between Lean and Likely at 80% too low, the boundary between Lean and Tossup at 65% is too high.  This results in them rating races as Likely or Tossup that most of us would consider Lean (like this one).

https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/methodology

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

It’s malpractice that we’re not seeing more R’s hammer the covid issue. I know it’s settled, but they resoundingly won the debate. Democrats, on the other hand, will smartly talk an issue into oblivion if they feel they have the upper hand. We need less vengeful toxicity towards people like Fauci and more proposals like “the government mandate protection act”, particularly in places like Arizona and Nevada.

We’ll see if they’re smart enough to use the student loans situation to an advantage. They should be portraying Biden as a good ol’ boy giving out checks to upper middle class white yuppie’s while the economy is bad. Instead we’ll probably see more lines like “vote for me to reduce inflation!” as if voters will think republicans are magical inflation specialists

I gotta admit this made me picture the person at a gift shop who fills up the helium balloons.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well in the end Molinaro didn't campaign on abortion but he still lost

Ryan did, though.  He placed a strong emphasis on it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If McCain didn't die, the Senate would be 51-49 R and the Democrats would have been far less successful at passing their agenda.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1564382916246913030

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/roddreher/status/1569004726389248000

[GeorgiaModerate]

 An overdue move, really.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1573447684152651776

I believe the law allows abortions only to save the life of the mother, no rape or incest exceptions (although I'm not 100% certain of this).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1575808313983475712

Ouch.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Combine it with the Wisconsin thread and make the title "Masters & Johnson".

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't know how many Arizona voters are watching this debate, but Kelly's performance isn't going to help him. He's doing terribly.

Lean D -> Safe D

[GeorgiaModerate]

edit: Kelly now tripling down on calling Masters a "know-it-all." Clearly focus-grouped this line.

This is kind of a weird way to define your opponent, but if he can tie it to abortion, more power to him.

He tied it to a couple issues. "He thinks he knows better than seniors on social security, he thinks he knows better than veterans on war, he thinks he knows better than women on their own bodies."

That's a memorable line.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN: Trump’s Arizona slate risks turning off independent-minded voters in key Senate and governor’s races

Pretty good article featuring interviews with several voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gridnews/status/1578394032199401472

[GeorgiaModerate]

The new OHPI poll shows Kelly +13 but with Victor, the Libertarian, at 15 (reference).  Question for Arizona folks: is Victor actually gaining traction or is this just a weird poll?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The new OHPI poll shows Kelly +13 but with Victor, the Libertarian, at 15 (reference).  Question for Arizona folks: is Victor actually gaining traction or is this just a weird poll?

What do you think?

I think it's probably just a weird poll, but on the off chance that the Libertarian is actually getting some support, I would like the opinion of someone on the ground in Arizona.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1581411272712593409

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1587390663968137217