Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[GeorgiaModerate]

Stop it, Biden Approvals isn't 59 percent, I will not be convinced of any 59 percent approvals unless Covid is over or substantially reduced to the point that everyone returns to work

There are LIMITS TO WHAT FED GOVT CAN DO ERADICATING COVID AND THE 1400 CHECKS WERENT ENOUGH, AS LONG AS COVID CONTINUES

538 has Biden at +13. Rasmussen has Biden at +2, while ARG has Biden at +24. Both Rasmussen and ARG are 9 points off the average. I wonder, why C-rated ARG is posted, but not B-rated Rasmussen 

Well, as one of the regular poll posters, I'll repeat the personal policy I've mentioned multiple times in the past: I don't post daily trackers such as Rasmussen, or HarrisX or Navigator when they were doing daily polls in 2020, unless they show something unusual or interesting, like new highs or lows for an individual.  I also don't post polls whose quality is generally considered suspect (e.g. McLaughlin), again unless there's something particularly interesting about them. 

Other people are welcome to post those polls if they see fit.  Some might find that more productive than complaining.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Stop it, Biden Approvals isn't 59 percent, I will not be convinced of any 59 percent approvals unless Covid is over or substantially reduced to the point that everyone returns to work

There are LIMITS TO WHAT FED GOVT CAN DO ERADICATING COVID AND THE 1400 CHECKS WERENT ENOUGH, AS LONG AS COVID CONTINUES

538 has Biden at +13. Rasmussen has Biden at +2, while ARG has Biden at +24. Both Rasmussen and ARG are 9 points off the average. I wonder, why C-rated ARG is posted, but not B-rated Rasmussen 

Well, as one of the regular poll posters, I'll repeat the personal policy I've mentioned multiple times in the past: I don't post daily trackers such as Rasmussen, or HarrisX or Navigator when they were doing daily polls in 2020, unless they show something unusual or interesting, like new highs or lows for an individual.  I also don't post polls whose quality is generally considered suspect (e.g. McLaughlin), again unless there's something particularly interesting about them. 

Other people are welcome to post those polls if they see fit.  Some might find that more productive than complaining.

ARG is pretty damn suspect, lol. It frequently showed Trump at -20 or even -25 net approvals throughout his entire term. I don't think Trump's approval was that low given November 2020

Oh, certainly.  There's no doubt that ARG (among others) has a leftward bias in their polls, just as Rasmussen (among others) has a rightward bias.  This is why polling averages are good.

I like following the ARG poll because it's a long-running monthly poll with very consistent methodology and a predictable release schedule (the 21st of each month), so it's useful to watch for trends.  I don't think it's particularly significant that it shows Biden close to 60% right now.  However, I think it will be significant if that 60% moves to 55% or 65% at some point in the future.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 21-22, 1004 adults

Approve 54 (nc)
Disapprove 39 (+1)

Approval by party:

D: 92 (+4)
I: 50 (+2)
R: 17 (-4)

[GeorgiaModerate]

ABC News/Washington Post, April 18-21, 1007 adults

Approve 52
Disapprove 42

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 35

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies), April 17-20, 1000 adults

Adults:

Approve 53
Disapprove 39

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 33

RV (Subsample size not shown):

Approve 51
Disapprove 43

Strongly approve 28
Strongly disapprove 36

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News/YouGov, April 21-24, 2527 adults (change from mid-March)

Approve 58 (-4)
Disapprove 42 (+4)

Strongly approve 33 (-3)
Strongly approve 32 (+4)

Last month's poll looked like an outlier at the time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It must be Network News Poll Day; after ABC, NBC, and CBS, here comes Fox to complete the set:

Fox News, April 18-21, 1002 RV

Approve 54
Disapprove 43

Strongly approve 34
Strongly approve 35

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1386428630511755265

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, April 19-21, 1809 adults including 1688 RV (2-week change)

Adults:

Approve 54 (+1)
Disapprove 44 (+5)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 32 (+3)

RV:

Approve 54 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+3)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 25-27, 1500 adults including 1219 RV

Adults:

Approve 51 (+2)
Disapprove 39 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 30 (+2)

RV:

Approve 52 (+1)
Disapprove 41 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 34 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 27-28, 1005 adults

Approve 55 (+1)
Disapprove 38 (-1)

Approval by party:

D: 91 (-1)
I: 59 (+9) outlier? A big jump to the highest approval among I's to date.
R: 19 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

As mentioned previously, I don't usually post about Rasmussen or other daily trackers unless they do something interesting.  However, today's Ras is amusing.  They've mixed up their columns, creating the following rather odd result:

Approve 30
Disapprove 41

Strongly approve 48
Strongly disapprove 50

[GeorgiaModerate]

After the Texas results this weekend, it's clear that these polls are still way, way off. Not looking good.

Um, no.

The Texas election was a one-off special with a fractured Democratic field featuring the widow of the incumbent, where the national party didn't invest much because the seat's going to be redrawn before the midterm anyway.  It has absolutely nothing to do with Biden's approval.  Last time I looked, Biden wasn't on the ballot in TX-06.

Considering the larger topic: are House Republicans favored in 2022?  Sure, because Democrats have only a narrow majority and there's usually a swing against the party in the White House.  Doesn't mean it's guaranteed to happen, but it's my starting assumption.  But it's not reasonable to solely draw that conclusion from the TX-06 special.  You might as well have concluded that the 2017 GA-06 special foretold Democratic doom in 2018, although IIRC some people here did exactly that.  And it's COMPLETELY unjustified to draw any conclusions about Biden's approvals from the TX-06 special.  I would hope people who are interested enough in elections to post here would be smarter than that.

The dooming here is just tiresome.  I hoped that some of you would have learned your lesson after 2020, but that was clearly wishful thinking.  But if you (collectively, not you specifically, Lief) absolutely must doom about the 2022 midterms, do it in the Congressional board where it's appropriate!  It's simply out of place in a Biden approval thread, and just lowers the signal-to-noise ratio here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), April 28-30, 1300 adults including 1057 RV

Adults:

Approve 51 (-2)
Disapprove 32 (-1)

RV:

Approve 55 (-4)
Disapproval not shown

Among registered voters, investors approve of Biden's job performance, 63%-31%, a bit more narrowly than April's 67%-30% split.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia: AJC/UGA, April 20-May 3, 844 RV

Approve 51
Disapprove 45

Strongly approve 28
Strongly disapprove 37

Gov. Brian Kemp: 45/49 (strongly 14/29)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 1-4, 1500 adults including 1187 RV

Adults:

Approve 48 (-3)
Disapprove 42 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 31 (+1)

RV:

Approve 49 (-3)
Disapprove 46 (+5)

Strongly approve 30 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 35 (+1)

This poll produces an occasional outlier.  Let's see what next week brings before jumping to any conclusions.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), May 4-5, 1005 adults

Approve 55 (nc)
Disapprove 38 (nc)

Approval by party:

D 89 (-2)
R 22 (+3)
I 49 (-10) - last week's 59 was apparently an outlier or typo; it was 48 and 50 the two prior weeks

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, April 29-May 3, 1842 adults (1-month change)

Approve 63 (+2)
Disapprove 36 (-2)

Strongly approve 34 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 25 (nc)

Also, 54% say the country is moving in the right direction vs 44% who say it's on the wrong track.  This is the first time in at least four years this has been above water (last month was tied 50-50).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm surprised you guys still trust polls so much after how badly they were off in Nov 2020

Surprised to see someone from Georgia saying that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 8-11, 1500 adults including 1204 RV

Adults:

Approve 51 (+3)
Disapprove 39 (-3)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 30 (-1)

RV:

Approve 52 (+3)
Disapprove 44 (-2)

Strongly approve 31 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 35 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), May 11-12, 1005 adults

Approve 56 (+1)
Disapprove 38 (nc)

Approve by party (disapproval not shown):

D: 91 (+2)
I: 55 (+6)
R: 18 (-4)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm surprised you guys still trust polls so much after how badly they were off in Nov 2020

Surprised to see someone from Georgia saying that.

A January runoff election with unrepresentative turnout patterns in a deeply polarized (and thus easier-to-model) state that is not only zooming to the left but also a place where Democrats benefit from unusually D-friendly migration patterns and 'low-propensity' D voter participation/activation does not negate the consistent patterns observed on a national level in every November election since 2014. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that many of these polls are quite clearly inflating Biden's approval numbers.

Since we're talking about Biden, I wasn't referring to the Senate runoffs.  The presidential election polls in Georgia were spot on, both the averages and a number of individual polls.  Here's an interesting example -- note the date!

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1260545350303088645

[GeorgiaModerate]

Redfield & Wilton, May 8-9, 1500 RV (change from late March)

Approve 52 (-1)
Disapprove 36 (+1)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 25 (-1)

Other approval ratings (no priors):

Kamala Harris: 49/36 (strongly 25/28)
Mitch McConnell: 25/42 (strongly 9/26)
Nancy Pelosi: 38/41 (strongly 18/33)
Chuck Schumer: 30/34 (strongly 14/23)
Kevin McCarthy: 26/31 (strongly 10/21)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 44, R 37

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/Marist, May 4-7, 1249 adults including 1075 RV (change from April 19-21; it looks like they've settled into a twice-monthly frequency)

Adults:

Approve 53 (-1)
Disapprove 41 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 30 (-2)

RV:

Approve 53 (-1)
Disapprove 42 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 32 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 15-18, 1500 adults including 1239 RV

Adults:

Approve 51 (nc)
Disapprove 41 (+2)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 30 (nc)

RV:

Approve 51 (-1)
Disapprove 43 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-1)