Arizona megathread (user search)
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  Arizona megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Arizona megathread  (Read 73288 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #50 on: November 01, 2022, 09:28:06 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #51 on: November 02, 2022, 07:50:52 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #52 on: November 04, 2022, 03:43:10 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #53 on: November 07, 2022, 03:43:05 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #54 on: November 08, 2022, 11:05:53 AM »
Quote from: citizenZ on November 08, 2022, 09:59:34 AM
(tweet)
I'd hate to be a poll worker. This guy looks like the line of voters will draw and quarter him.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #55 on: November 09, 2022, 02:34:58 PM »
I think you'd rather be Lake here, but it's certainly not over.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #56 on: November 14, 2022, 08:52:44 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on November 09, 2022, 02:10:07 PM
Katie Hobbs is DONE FOR if you believe Data Orbital


Narrator: never believe Data Orbital.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #57 on: November 15, 2022, 06:06:45 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on November 15, 2022, 04:41:44 PM
AZ Attorney Generals Race

Kris Mayes (D) 1,236,908
Abraham Hamadeh (R) 1,235,395

Difference: 1,513

Mayes better hope he has a good "Curing" Team otherwise Hamadeh might win this.

Maybe they can borrow the Culinary Union curing team from Nevada. Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #58 on: November 15, 2022, 06:08:52 PM »


Garrett goes on to say that there are about 6K votes left in Apache County, which are expected to be mostly tribal votes (heavily D).  If this is the case, he estimates Hamadeh needs about 60% of the remaining Maricopa votes to feel comfortable.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #59 on: November 15, 2022, 08:17:38 PM »
Garrett Archer is taking the night off and says that Nicole Grigg (https://twitter.com/NicoleSGrigg) will be doing the Maricopa (and Pima) incoming tonight.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #60 on: November 15, 2022, 08:39:44 PM »
Details of the Cochise County drop:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #61 on: November 15, 2022, 08:52:35 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #62 on: November 16, 2022, 09:30:35 PM »
Quote from: HillGoose on November 16, 2022, 09:19:52 PM
can someone tell me what "cured" signatures means? i dont understand it

If there is a problem with the signature on a ballot envelope (doesn't look like a match, or they didn't sign their legal name, or missed a date, etc.) the county tries to notify the voter.  They then have a few days to come into the elections office and "cure" whatever's wrong with the ballot.  If they do so before the deadline, the cured ballot gets added to the pile to be counted.  If they don't, the ballot is invalid.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #63 on: November 17, 2022, 08:20:12 AM »
Quote from: Dr Oz Hater on November 17, 2022, 02:10:36 AM
Quote from: Peltola for God Empress on November 17, 2022, 12:43:04 AM
What are people saying about Hoffman’s chances of re-election?

It's not looking good. She's down by about 8K votes. It would take a miracle for her to pull ahead.

It sucks because not only does her losing bode ill for public education in Arizona, but she was the best performing statewide Democrat in 2018 and for her to go from that to outright losing reelection just sucks. I feel bad for her.

Lingering resentment for school closings during the pandemic, perhaps?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #64 on: November 17, 2022, 08:20:27 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #65 on: November 17, 2022, 11:00:54 AM »
Quote from: prag_prog on November 17, 2022, 10:51:50 AM
she is not conceding



Situations like this always remind me of this exchange from near the end of the (wonderful) 1973 movie version of The Three Musketeers:

Milady de Winter: Your Eminence is a great player -- great enough to lose. I do not like to lose.

Cardinal Richelieu: You must suit yourself, Milady. But if in the end you should, do it with a becoming grace.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #66 on: November 18, 2022, 02:49:19 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #67 on: November 21, 2022, 02:52:12 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #68 on: November 21, 2022, 04:04:23 PM »


It's not impossible to overturn a 500-vote deficit in a recount, but it's extremely unlikely.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #69 on: November 21, 2022, 06:24:57 PM »
Quote from: Torrain on November 21, 2022, 06:03:33 PM
Quote from: Your False god Won't Save You on November 21, 2022, 05:40:29 PM
Quote from: Torrain on November 21, 2022, 04:54:46 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 21, 2022, 04:04:23 PM
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1594794887706189852
It's not impossible to overturn a 500-vote deficit in a recount, but it's extremely unlikely.
McSally's recount in 2014 took her from a 161 to a 167 vote lead, apparently - if the AZ election system is still as accurate as it was back then, this should all be over...

Wasn't that a district?

Aye - but it’s got some relevance to statewide recounting. I’ll admit - it’s not a one-to-one comparison though.

The largest swing in a recount I know of was the 2008 Minnesota Senate race, which went from Coleman+215 to Franken+312, a net change of 527 votes.  But that was an extreme case.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #70 on: November 22, 2022, 10:20:12 AM »
Interesting analysis of statewide recounts in recent years: https://fairvote.org/report/election-recounts-2022/
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #71 on: November 22, 2022, 09:13:02 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on November 22, 2022, 09:10:27 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 22, 2022, 08:18:56 PM


He shouldn't be entitled to anything before the recount. At 510 votes he has every right to ask for one and him winning is not outside all probability.

He doesn't even have to ask for one; under Arizona law, a recount is automatic if the margin is less than 0.5% (the current margin is about 0.02%)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #72 on: November 22, 2022, 09:32:55 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #73 on: November 22, 2022, 10:04:21 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on November 22, 2022, 09:50:27 PM
National Republicans really seem enraged or at least very frustrated with Arizona,  I'm seeing more complaints from the right wing about Arizona than about anything at the national level like taking the House or not taking the Senate. 

Run bad candidates, get bad results.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #74 on: November 23, 2022, 06:53:26 PM »
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