Arizona megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona judge dismisses most of Kari Lake’s lawsuit challenging election results

Hallelujah!

"Most"? What's the part that's left standing?

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1605038934827958273

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1605320861279715328

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1605602753425788945

[GeorgiaModerate]

The second and presumably final day of the hearing in Kari Lake's lawsuit to overturn the election is ongoing.  Garrett Archer (https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer) and Democracy Docket (https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket) are both live tweeting it.  My impression so far is that Lake's lawyers have established that there were certainly some problems in the election in Maricopa County, but they've fallen very far short of the necessary bar of proving there was intentional misconduct that affected a sufficient number of votes to change the outcome.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jimstinson/status/1606153526186455041

She's certainly got an ego to match her idol Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lake's election contest has been getting most of the attention lately, but Abraham Hamadeh also filed one in the AG race:

https://twitter.com/arizonaslaw/status/1606366918830460928

This is entirely separate from the recount in this race, where the results are still pending and should be revealed next Thursday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What's the point of challenging the pre-recount results if they're going to be mooted by the recount anyway?

I think a lot of is to keep the MAGA base riled up and sending money.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1606418502188949506

I've long thought she was just grifting, but I'm starting to believe that she's genuinely insane.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/arizonaslaw/status/1607388343196844036

I'm guessing that most judges don't like being accused of being in cahoots with one side of the trial.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1608250404672008192

[GeorgiaModerate]

F**k. If Hamadeh ends up winning, in addition to having an election denier as AG, the fact that a race flipped to the GOP after a recount (never mind that it was a margin of 0.1 points) is going to fuel GOP conspiracies for years.

When will we know the results?

The results will be presented to the court in a hearing starting at 10am MST.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1610117022117154817

It's good to see that some grace and civility still exists in our politics.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1620209853905133568

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wouldn't be shocked if she shows up at the Governor's office someday and claims she's the rightful occupant.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1626367506758897664

Lake has said she'll appeal to the Arizona Supreme Court.  (SPOILER: she'll lose there too.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1627815024743047168

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1628445714434113536

[GeorgiaModerate]

Right now on Twitter, right-wing nutjobs are spreading a lie that Katie Hobbs "accepted bribes from the Sinaloa cartel" lol.

Insanity.

I'm not clear on the details, but from the feeds of the Arizona newsies it seems that at least two(?) conspiracy theorists have made wild claims of bribery and corruption against a wide range of state and county government officials from both parties.  I think this may be the specific one you're referring to:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1629282085096816640

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1630059485799796736

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1630623957211840512

[GeorgiaModerate]

The entire editorial board of the Arizona Republic slams ex-AG Mark Brnovich for sitting on his investigation of the 2020 election that showed no fraud:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/editorial/2023/02/28/mark-brnovich-disgraced-arizona-that-cant-go-unpunished/69950197007/

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1654224807322619904

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1664674226450857994

[GeorgiaModerate]

They again counting votes from 2022 in June 2023 because whiney loser Lake can't take defeat? It's gotta be a joke.

Or maybe could the fact that Katie Hobbs did not even campaign at all or release any promo videos, unlike all other candidates even those in states they were never going to win, be a possible red flag? Getting elected in a very competitive state without campaigning, a bit fishy if you ask me.

Lake was a terrible enough candidate that Hobbs could beat her without campaigning. Robson would've probably won.

The AZ SOS needs to reform the counting process though - the vote margin changing by that much for several days after the election doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the system.

The bolded part is spot on.  Despite thinking she's the greatest thing since sliced bread, Lake was in fact a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad candidate.  She had a huge ego, zero political experience, and very little skill at it.  One example among many: her telling McCain Republicans to "get the hell out".  Rejecting a portion of your party's coalition in a close state is not exactly a winning strategy.  Hobbs took a calculated risk that keeping a low profile and letting Lake be her own worst enemy would be enough to win the race, and it was. 

Regarding the second paragraph, Arizona certainly had a few problems administering the last election (although none severe enough to flip the governor's race) that they need to address.  But as far as the counting bias, I don't see what you can do to change that when so much of the state votes by absentee ballot, and those have become predominantly Democratic since 2020.  In earlier years, Arizona absentees went heavily Republican and the counting bias tended to go the other way.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The bolded part is spot on.  Despite thinking she's the greatest thing since sliced bread, Lake was in fact a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad candidate.  She had a huge ego, zero political experience, and very little skill at it.  One example among many: her telling McCain Republicans to "get the hell out".  Rejecting a portion of your party's coalition in a close state is not exactly a winning strategy.  Hobbs took a calculated risk that keeping a low profile and letting Lake be her own worst enemy would be enough to win the race, and it was. 

Regarding the second paragraph, Arizona certainly had a few problems administering the last election (although none severe enough to flip the governor's race) that they need to address.  But as far as the counting bias, I don't see what you can do to change that when so much of the state votes by absentee ballot, and those have become predominantly Democratic since 2020.  In earlier years, Arizona absentees went heavily Republican and the counting bias tended to go the other way.

You could also accuse Donald Trump of similar you know

I would say only the first two elements (huge ego and zero political experience) were true of Trump in 2016.  He did have enough political skill to bring out and motivate his base while still remaining palatable to some swing voters. That was just enough for him to squeak by Hillary -- although he would likely have lost to a candidate who had less baggage and was better liked.