Iraq/Iran Megathread - Latest: U.S. to close Baghdad embassy

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1212906205296889856
If true...

Soleimani was a bad actor and I will shed no tears for him.  But this may have a major destabilizing effect on the region.  Stay tuned.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GillianHTurner/status/1213090993324666881
This is going to get ugly really quickly.

Sounds like Iraq is going to declare war on the US alongside Iran just because the US defensively protected itself on Iraqi soil.

Maybe the president can negotiate better.  He's also championing himself as the best there is at negotiating.

Our President did the most tactical and presidential approach to the issue of this man, Soleimani. Knowing that he has been the leader behind countless decisions to attack US bases, coordinate with and support terrorist cells, and seeking to destabilize the Middle East to further Iran's foreign policy ambitions, we had every reason to engage Iran in a full-on war if they refused to turn him over. Instead, President Trump decided to take an excellent opportunity when he was isolated and on foreign soil, to assassinate him. Our President took the most peaceful possible approach to the issue while still securing security and justice for America and our soldiers who died because of this man.

I'm still not sure if you're for real or just trolling.

I'm sure he's trolling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1213127991150166018

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's worth pointing out that in a single strike the U.S. committed the act of open war against not one, but two countries.

Trump has the most EFFICIENT warmongering!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very informative thread on the background to the strike.  Click to read the whole thing.

https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/1213421769777909761

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1213610155243376647

Note: Nichols is on record as saying he believes the strike was legal, but was a terrible idea strategically.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/status/1213044218689720321?s=19
Bolton the based DESTROYS isolationists once again 😎

And what comes after the Islamic Republic? Another terrorist den?

What I imagine would come is that the US military and American corporations drain the theocratic swamp, then rebuild it. The Iranians own it, the Americans run it. Pipelines, sea lanes, their resources finance the reconstruction. It would be a nexus of power that wouldn't be broken in our lifetime. There would be no exit like there was with Iraq. America stays. Iran becomes Little America.

I can imagine winning the lottery.  That's more likely than your scenario.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/status/1213832350045523968

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Foreign Policy realm of the Trump Administration has been infiltrated by neocons, in part because they professed loyalty to Trump.  They have sought to flavor Trump's policy with Neocon Spice, and they've been somewhat successful.  Somewhat.  Trump needs to systematically replace the neocons in his Foreign Policy apparatus with people that adhere to HIS philosophy and not let anymore Bolton's creep back in.

There is no "HIS" philosophy. Donald Trump doesn't know or care enough about anything to have a consistent worldview. Everything he does is just following whatever the last person who had his ear suggested.

I'm pretty convinced that most of Donald Trump's questions in the Oval Office to his advisors and cabinet start with "why can't we just...?"

"Why can't we just build a wall? Illegal immigration is a problem.  A wall will keep people out."  

"Why can't we just cut taxes? People hate paying taxes!"

"This Soleimani guy -- he sounds like a bad guy.  Why can't we just take him out?"

Sometimes, you need someone who thinks in a very binary way -- someone who will take action instead of just dancing around and leaning towards a decision without taking one.  But not when it's arguably the most powerful man/woman in the world.  

This illustrates one of the largest problems in politics right now.  There's a quote by H. L. Mencken that's very popular in my job: "Every complex problem has a solution that is simple, obvious, ... and utterly wrong."  This is almost universally true; every once in a while, someone will come up with a brilliant insight that simply solves a complex problem with an unexpected approach, but this is a very rare event.

At the highest levels of government (or most any organization) there are few, if any, simple or easy problems.  The simple problems get solved at lower levels, and the tough problems filter upward.  As a consequence, the highest levels get the toughest problems.

However, some people don't (or choose not to) understand this, and believe that most problems can be solved simply by a "direct thinker" or something similar.  There is a natural appeal to this line of thinking; most of us don't like a messy world where some problems can't be solved easily/cheaply/practically/at all.  After all, why are we electing these people (or paying them so much, in the private sector) if they can't fix what's wrong? 

I believe this tendency has gotten worse over time; a few decades ago it seemed that more people were willing to believe that some problems were beyond their understanding or experience, and were willing to trust in experts to solve them.  But nowadays many non-expert people put less trust in experts.  These people believe that they know (with the aid of the Internet) as much as anyone else about a subject, and hey, it's obvious that problem X can be solved if we just do A, B, and C.  Tom Nichols has written a book about this called The Death of Expertise.

A candidate like Trump has a natural appeal for these people, and if such a candidate is elected the result is a government full of incompetents.  And these incompetents are then in control of an apparatus so powerful that the effects of their incompetence are dangerous.  Even worse, they manage to drive out most of the competent people that remain and who might provide some stability.

I don't see a simple answer to this (it's a complex problem!)  Maybe the disaster that is the Trump administration will wake up enough American voters to realize that they really shouldn't put their faith in a con man who promises simple solutions to their problems.  But I suspect that is too optimistic a hope.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/KatieNicholson/status/1213896186354184195

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213919480574812160

cc: Crazy Trump Tweets megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fuzzy, the border wall megathread is down the page a bit.  Please keep that discussion out of this one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JarrettBlanc/status/1214061223475634176

[GeorgiaModerate]

I gotta admit that famously liberal rag Forbes was right when they warned us before the 2016 election that if I voted for Clinton, we'd end up in more wars in the Middle East.  I voted for Clinton, and now we're getting in another war.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've changed the title to be a general Iran megathread plus the latest developments.  Mods, please feel free to update the latest bit in the title as needed if I don't get to it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1214722638733406209

[GeorgiaModerate]

Really don’t like hearing Pompeo et al came back with duffel bags. Sounds like they are planning a big response.

I'm unclear on the timing here.  Wasn't their arrival with the bags earlier in the evening, and they were subsequently reported to have left again?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm now waiting for the inevitable press conference and/or tweet storm where Donald Trump openly mocks the Iranians for their inability and/or unwillingness to kill American soldiers, attributing it to his threats to destroy Iranian cultural sites.

Maybe not today since experience has proven that Trump is capable of restraining himself for at least short periods of time, but in the end it always bursts out of him.

I recall seeing something about Trump giving a statement this afternoon. 

I still feel super uneasy.  I'm already seeing people declaring that "Iran isn't as bad as we thought they could be" and "this is all Iran has?"

Seems premature, but only time will tell.  

I have the same feeling.  This isn't over, although it might cool off for a while.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1214939111565484036

[GeorgiaModerate]

I am seeing a lot of love for Trump in the last 5 pages.

We might have a few red avatars voting for Donald later this year.

This post required an transcended level of delusion to type...

Dunno, it seemed like a typical Meclazine level to me.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/davidgura/status/1215085959114559488

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1215289649675087873

[GeorgiaModerate]

Republicans are turning on Mike Lee.  I was listening to conservative talk radio this morning and there was a lot of hate for him including some accusations of homosexuality.

Not a cult, right?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/1215396624370950144

This is in response to Trump claiming that Soleimani was planning to blow up the embassy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DanielPFlatley/status/1215395882558017537