Weight the possible outcomes for Trump (round 3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

This seems like a good time for another round of this game.  You get $100 to distribute among the following possible outcomes of Trump’s current term.  You can put as much or as little as you like on any individual outcome, but the total must be $100.

A)   Re-election: Trump wins another term next November.
B)   Lose general election: Trump is the Republican nominee, but loses to the Democratic candidate.
C)   Lose primary: Trump runs in the primary but doesn’t win it.
D)   Doesn’t run again: Trump finishes out his term, but drops his campaign for re-election (the LBJ scenario).
E)   Impeachment/removal: Impeachment by the House (majority required) followed by removal by the Senate (2/3 vote required).
F)   25A: Removed by the VP and Cabinet in accordance with the 25th Amendment.
G)   Resignation.
H)   Death.

My answers:

Re-election: $20.  Could happen if he comes out of the impeachment process in a stronger position.

Lose general election: $49.  The most likely outcome, assuming the Democrats nominate a reasonable good candidate.

Lose primary: $1.  Unlikely in the extreme.

Doesn’t run again: $10.  If Trump survives impeachment but his approvals are in the tank, I could see him doing this rather than face the humiliation of defeat.

Impeachment/removal: $8.  At this point, I think impeachment is almost certain, so this question becomes: what are the odds the Senate will convict?  One chance in 12 seems about right.

25A: $0.  Nope, nada, zilch.

Resignation: $10.  Last time I put this at almost zero, but now I think that if things look bad enough for Trump (e.g. his removal looks likely), he might resign for health reasons or some other pretext.

Death: $2.  I don’t wish death on anyone, but he is an old man with an unhealthy lifestyle, and under a lot of stress that is likely to get worse.