Gravis Marketing - NV Poll, Trump Gains in the State

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nevada was EVEN in 2020 in terms of PVI and this poll just reinforces it.

You have a time machine?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nope, I'm calling junk on this one.  Look at the crosstabs for Trump approval (http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Nevada-General-and-Democratic-Caucus-August-16-2019.pdf, Q4)

White 69/31 (strongly 51/25)
African-American 48/51 (strongly 32/41)
Asian 61/35 (strongly 43/26)
Hispanic 63/37 (strongly 47/30)
Other 69/31 (strongly 51/25)

Apart from the fact that some of those are patently ridiculous, there is no way you could combine them to get an overall 53/44 approval.  I suspect they've mixed up some rows somewhere.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So Trump has +9 approval rate but he is losing by 6 ?? lol

The approval number is highly questionable, to say the least; see my post two before yours for more details.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump's approval here is 53/44. We can discount this poll right now.

Why cause it's higher than you want?

It's junk because when you dig into the poll (which I did) the approval numbers are internally completely inconsistent; see my post upthread for details, if it's not too much trouble for you.  Also, I'm sure that everyone would expect that if Trump were really +9 in approval, his head-to-head numbers would be much better than they are.  The two don't go together.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump's approval here is 53/44. We can discount this poll right now.

Why cause it's higher than you want?

It's junk because when you dig into the poll (which I did) the approval numbers are internally completely inconsistent; see my post upthread for details, if it's not too much trouble for you.  Also, I'm sure that everyone would expect that if Trump were really +9 in approval, his head-to-head numbers would be much better than they are.  The two don't go together.

Maybe but Nevada is a weird state. If you look at past history it tends to favor incumbents. Bush, Obama and I believe Clinton won it.

This is true but not necessarily germane.  The key difference is that those three incumbents also won it in their first term election, while Trump did not win Nevada.