CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there a way to bypass nyt wall?

Open it in incognito mode.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maine results are coming in!!!!!!

Well, that's the Maine thing.

Stand by for the Maine event.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Golden 7
St. Clair 3

This is like baseball with these low scores

That one could be a football score.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking at these primary statistics...Comstock is finished.

And yet, Kondik still thinks it's a tossup:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1006702868873797635

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arrington starting to run away with it:


Republican Primary
Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
52.3%   Katie Arrington   14,276   
44.9%   Mark Sanford*   12,247   
2.8%   Dimitri Cherny   762   
39.7% of precincts reporting (140/353)   *Incumbent
27,285 total votes

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1006704843208175616

[GeorgiaModerate]

Disgusting, Virginia.  Stewart is a racist and should be forcibly removed from the GOP.

The standard bearer of your party is a racist. You can't escape it.

It's good that EC is willing to say this.  He's a counter example to the popular meme that all Republicans are racists.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tonight's CA-48 update:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   44,356   30.6%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   25,052   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   24,682   17.1%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   23,359   16.1%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rouda cuts the gap a bit, but still trails Keirstead:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   46,926   30.6%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   26,640   17.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   26,311   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   24,614   16.1%

Orange County turnout is now at 37.4% (mail ballots are 24.9%).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can Rouda make this up?

Orange has 15K mail and then 45K provisionals to count.  Wasserman thinks the provisionals will break Rouda's way (I'm not sure why).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Orange County dumped a few more votes overnight, but both Rouda and Keirstead gained 76 votes each, so the gap remains at 329.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   47,052   30.6%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   26,716   17.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   26,387   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   24,684   16.1%

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm still not convinced that relative primary turnout means much.  Yes, an increase for one party from previous elections may show increased enthusiasm, but this is likely to be far outweighed by how interesting/competitive each primary matchup is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Keirstead picked up a net 6 votes today and now leads Rouda by 335:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   49,654   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   28,373   17.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   28,038   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,011   16.0%

Rohrabacher's percentage has been creeping downward.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up below 30%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Keirstead picked up a net 6 votes today and now leads Rouda by 335:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   49,654   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   28,373   17.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   28,038   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,011   16.0%

Rohrabacher's percentage has been creeping downward.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up below 30%.

I don't think there's many more votes to count...

There are, actually.  As of last night, Orange County had about 45K votes left to count, almost all of them provisionals: http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2018-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rouda now in second place by 40 votes.  I don't know how much is left, if any.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,013   30.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,575   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,535   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,124   15.8%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Assuming the 4500 votes come in at the exact proportion/percentage to the Saturday votes (a big but seemingly fair assumption,) Rouda would add 815 votes and Keirstead would add 657. That's a net of 158, with Rouda overcoming the current deficit of 114 by a mere 44 votes. It could go either way, but Rouda still seems like the favorite given the large percentage of the 4.5k being from election day which Rouda has won decisively thus far.

And the crucial update that just came in from ocvote.com....

HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,575   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,535   17.2%

40 votes lead by Harley! Not far off my estimate!

Well done!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who wins the SC gubernatorial GOP runoff?

Probably McMaster

Agree, but this is the wrong thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,520   30.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,873   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,804   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,412   15.8%

Rouda by 69.

[GeorgiaModerate]

19,397 votes in Orange County still need to be counted. It's still unknown who faces Rohrabacher.

However, it was reported that OC had focused on finishing the ballots from CA-48 first, so the current count for the district is, if not final, very close to it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apparently some CA-48 ballots are still being counted.  Tonight's update showed Rouda gaining 92 and Keirstead 57, so Rouda is now +97:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,674   30.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   30,016   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,919   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,483   15.8%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Votes continue to trickle in for CA-48.  Tonight's update:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,722   30.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   30,089   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,964   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,504   15.8%

Rouda gained 73 while Keirstead gained 45.  Rouda is now up by 125.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looks like CA-48 is just about done; there were only a handful of votes added tonight.  Rouda gained 10 and Keirstead 9, so Rouda now leads by 126.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,734   30.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   30,099   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,973   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,513   15.8%

[GeorgiaModerate]

The only runoff poll in CA-48 with Rouda shows him leading Rohrabacher. When will the California vote totals be officially certified?

Wasserman said the CA-48 results would be certified today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Please tell me that there was not an exact tie for 2nd in CA-48.

Rouda won 2nd by 126 votes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone have a raw vote total for Orange County? The number of Dems/Reps that cast votes?

I know dems cast more votes than reps, they pulled ahead last week.

Ok, but does anyone have information that could answer my question?

For the whole county or just CA-48?  For CA-48, this is what I get based on the most recent update from the county.  This is the number of votes cast for candidates of each party.

R   92,309   53.0%
D   80,061   46.0%
L   964   0.6%
None   690   0.4%
Total   174,024   100.0%