Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly, 3/19

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

This poll has stayed within a very narrow range for the past couple of months.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, March 15-19, 1548 adults

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, March 15-19, 1994 RV

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, March 18-20, 1500 adults

Approve 37 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 17 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, March 15-21, 55372 adults (48442 RV)

Among all adults:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, March 19-21, 1271 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve  22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, March 19-21, 1271 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve  22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)

Yet, the GCB tightens. What’s going on?

Who knows.  We've seen that before where an individual poll will move in opposite directions with Trump approval and the GCB.  It might be more useful to look at the polling averages (I use 538's) over time.

Trump approval today: 40.7/53.2 (-12.5)
One week ago: 40.2/53.9 (-13.7)
One month ago: 40.0/54.4 (-14.4)
Two months ago: 39.2/55.9 (-16.7)

GCB today: 46.2/40.7 (D+5.5)
One week ago: 48.0/39.3 (D+8.7)
One month ago: 47.0/38.8 (D+8.2)
Two months ago: 47.2/39.6 (D+7.6)

From this, it looks like Trump has slowly been improving, while the GCB has been fairly stable until the last week. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, March 18-21, 1014 RV (change from last month)

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

An interesting question in this poll (not asked previously):

Which is more important:

Protecting the right of citizens to own guns  40
Protecting citizens from gun violence  53

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Continuing to stay within a very narrow range for the last several weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting tidbit on the CNN poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP - National:

39% Approve (-5)
54% Diasppaprove (+5)

Source

But what about "highest approval rating since first 100 days" CNN?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, March 22-26, 2711 adults

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2, March 22-26, 2711 adults

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Fixed the link

Thanks for catching that, I've fixed it in the OP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Two more polls moving in opposite directions:

Morning Consult, March 26-27, 1997 RV


Approve 42 (-1)  (Strongly: 20)
Disapprove 53 (+2)  (Strongly: 38)

YouGov, March 25-27, 1500 adults

Approve 39 (+2)  (Strongly: 19)
Disapprove 49 (-3)  (Strongly: 40)

[GeorgiaModerate]

New York City -  Quinnipiac:

19% Approve
76% Disapprove

Bronx: 16-82
Brooklyn: 24-70
Manhattan: 12-87
Queens: 18-75
Staten Island: 34-62!!!

Source

Fighting the Gateway tunnel is not going to win many friends in NYC.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, March 22-28, 14468 adults (12629 RV)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DLRXSB9SdN2ZrovFcGSwHAXhFjZeTI61/view

Among all adults:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters core political poll (this is different from their daily tracker), March 23-27, 1670 adults (1392 RV)
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-03-28
https://www.slideshare.net/AnneMarieMoran2/reutersipsos-data-core-political-03282018

Among all adults:

Approve 40 (strongly 20)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 42)

Among RV:

Approve 41 (strongly 20)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 43)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Latest Rasmussen Survey:
Approval: 45%
Disapproval: 53%
These are solid numbers for Trump, in that it shows virtually all the people that voted for him still support him.

Rasmussen is still a terrible pollster, and one that's noticeably biased towards Republicans as of late.

FWIW, 538's adjusted value for this poll is 40/53.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen actually had Trump with net positive approval ratings about a month ago for what its worth.

That was just a brief blip above water, 50/49 on one day and 50/48 on another.  But he does seem to be fading slightly recently.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP survey of 1027 Americans age 15-34 only, Feb 22-March 9

Approve 33 (Strongly 12)
Disapprove 67 (Strongly 47)

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP finds Trump at 46/47 in South Carolina CD 1, which he won 54-40 (and Romney won 58-40).

https://www.postandcourier.com/cunningham-st-district-poll/pdf_60d4f8e6-3431-11e8-8249-6361aacaeb48.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly: 39/55, exactly the same as last week, and continuing to stay within a very narrow range for the past several weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, March 22-29, 902 adults (change from last month)

Approve 38 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a question: If (big if maybe) Mueller concludes the Russia probe and doesn't implicate trump or any other associates besides what is already snagged, what would happen to his ratings?

Media would probably characterize it as "a monkey off his back", but I don't think the russia stuff is a significant driver of disapproval.

Maybe a temporary 2 point swing.

This is probably about right, with "temporary" being the key word.  The bounce would last until the next time Trump said something stupid.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, March 29-April 2, 1907 adults

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (nc)