2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rothenberg on the generic ballot: https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/the-generic-is-falling-the-generic-is-falling

Subtitle: A deeper look at polling shows a fairly consistent Democratic advantage.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 8-12, 1268 RV

D 43, R 35 (D+8)

Previous poll was D 42, R 37

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult

R+1

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/14/trump-polling-democrats-republicans-407315

This is probably what the final result will look like, because if you compare the Generic ballot polling of 2014 and 2016 with today, theirs a shocking correlation (Democrats were leading most of the cycle until the last month or so).

the election is in November, not in March, though?

Not to mention the major difference: the Democrats controlled the White House during those two elections, and they don't this year.  The out-party typically gets a boost in midterms.

[GeorgiaModerate]

More evidence that Morning Consult poll is absolute trash:

Dems only lead the GOP by 4 points when it comes to which party the public trusts more on healthcare, and yet, the GOP leads by 6 points on immigration despite the fact DACA is popular and championed by the Democrats. MC is garbage.

Yeah, this poll is garbage.  For one thing, the demographics don't add up.  Their raw data says (https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000161-915b-d53a-a5f5-b57fafea0000 page 18):

White 1617 81%
Hispanic 178 9%
Black 255 13%
Other 113 6%

Those percentages add up to 109%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 11-15, 1241 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 36 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

More evidence that Morning Consult poll is absolute trash:

Dems only lead the GOP by 4 points when it comes to which party the public trusts more on healthcare, and yet, the GOP leads by 6 points on immigration despite the fact DACA is popular and championed by the Democrats. MC is garbage.

Yeah, this poll is garbage.  For one thing, the demographics don't add up.  Their raw data says ( page 18):

White 1617 81%
Hispanic 178 9%
Black 255 13%
Other 113 6%

Those percentages add up to 109%.

Hispanic isn’t marked as its own race. You can be White/Hispanic or Black/Hispanic. It seems like the poll identified 9% as Hispanic and White, so if you get rid of that overlap it tallies up to 100%.

That makes sense.  Good catch.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinipiac has D+15. 53 - 38.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2521

For comparison, their previous poll (Feb 2-5) was 49/40 (D+9).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We'e gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.

Yes, but what will be the trend of the doomsaying?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 15-19, 766 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 35 (-1)

Third consecutive poll they've had D at 42, while R has gone from 38 to 36 to 35.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NEW YouGov/Economist poll:

(2/18-2/20)

Democrats: 43% (+1)
GOP: 35% (-3)

Collapse

YouGov has been one of the closer polls on the generic ballot.  I don't think they've had a spread that large since December.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harris Interactive:

Dems lead 41-36 (D+5)

No prior poll to compare with.

Cautionary note: Harris uses an online-only methodology, which is of questionable reliability.  538 rates them at C- with a bias of R+1.5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

UT-04: Love leads McAdams 49-43.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's a new Atlas function where you can completely block an ignored users posts. I suggest you guys do that, because this forum is far better when you don't have to see LimoLibel and King Tear's posts.

How do you do that? The only three people I have on ignore now are Bagel, smolt and Lear. Andrew will probably go on eventually.

Profile --> Atlas - Forum Options (this was just added in the new update) > Hide posts by ignored users more thoroughly

By doing this, you can rid yourself of Andrew forever.

Thank you!  (And also to the powers that be for implementing this.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

Worth noting that this poll bounces around a lot.  Last 5 previous results:

Jan D+5
Dec D+18
Nov D+11
Oct D+16
Sep D+6

[GeorgiaModerate]

The CNN poll has pushed the 538 average to D+10.0, the first time in several weeks that it's been in double digits.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Politico/MC shows D+2 (was previously R+1). This means the GOP loses 1000 seats in November.

https://morningconsult.com/2018/02/28/half-of-voters-support-arming-teachers-as-gop-support-for-gun-control-rises/

#Limonalysis

No no no.  For something like real #Limonalysis...

Republicans currently have a 45-vote margin in the House (238-193 with 4 vacancies).  But a shift from R+1 to D+2 means the Democrats will have twice as big an edge as the Republicans do now, so the result will be a 90-seat D margin!

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

The good people in Kentucky, NH and Connecticut must have missed the memo.

Special elections are about enthusiasm because turnout is so low, but in a midterm turnout is much higher. Saying that special election results have much of anything to do with the generic ballot (particularly when 22% are undecided) is a bit silly.

Saying that special elections are not related to future midterm results is silly. Other than 1998, there is a direct correlation.

I don't think that's what he said.  He said that special election results aren't correlated with the generic ballot, because in special elections turnout/motivation is a driving factor.  I agree with this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb. 25 - March 1, 1224 RV

D 43, R 33 (D+10)

Previous: D 40, R 37 (D+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not hearing anything one way or the other about the Monmouth poll on my end.

I'm hearing positive Trump approval.

lol

Even if that happens, how on earth would you have sources telling you the contents of some university poll?

Perhaps it's the voices in his head?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/trump-polls-2020-democrats-443083

Politico/MC has the GCB at D+7 (44-37), up from D+2.

Up 9 points from the one before. This is what happens when you actually have a more accurate sample (Hillary +1).

Check your arithmetic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sources tell me that this is going to be an amazing poll for Trump and Rs --->

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/971038248326828033

D+9...

Wow, amazing news for the GOP. When will the winning end?

"Amazing" can cut both ways.  This one is just amazingly BAD for Trump and Rs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NY-11 Republican Primary: Donovan and Grimm both release polls showing a lead respectively.

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/973257617647775747

That's quite a difference.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't think any of these have been posted yet:

YouGov, Mar 10-13, 1278 RV

D 43 (nc)
R 38 (+1)

Morning Consult, Mar 8-12, 1997 RV

D 43 (-1)
R 36 (+1)

Ipsos/Reuters, Mar 8-12, 1216 RV

D 43 (-1)
R 34 (+1)