Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[GeorgiaModerate]

In before LimoLiberal tax bump post.

As for the actual reason, its Christmas weekend. I bet responses are way down, hence why no respectable pollster actually polls over holidays.

Edit: Lol.

Maybe it's a tax bump, maybe not.  It's not uncommon for there to be a bump in Presidential approval around Christmas; possibly people are in a more charitable mood around the holidays.  Let's see what it looks like in the middle of January.

[GeorgiaModerate]

While it's true that other Presidents have had lower approval ratings than Trump, it's important to remember that no President has been reelected after such low ratings.  Clinton was the closest (he was around 36 or 37 in mid-1993) and was reelected, and one could argue that there's a similar amount of time for Trump to recover.  However, Clinton saw that he needed to do change things and successfully did so.  I strongly doubt that Trump has the temperament or flexibility to do something similar.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Dec 21-25, 1435 adults

Approve 37 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 12/26 (change from 12/23 -- no polling on 12/24-25)

Approve 38 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Dec 24-26, 1500 adults

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 22
Strongly disapprove 42

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Not holding your breath is a sound idea.  Neither of those has a chance of passing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I personally feel Charlottesville was the tipping point for the sliver of people who were actually open to giving him a chance. He is not recovering. He is a morally bankrupt cretin incapable of empathy and self-reflection. He is a pea-brained child who intentionally pisses on those who do not support him. The claims of him being able to get back to 45-50 percent or even breaking that are hysterical.

This is the key to it.  Certainly there's time for Trump's approval to recover, but it would require him to essentially have a personality transplant.  Even if things continue to go well, that's not going to rub off on Trump; things are going well now and his approval rating is poor, for exactly the reasons you mentioned.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Agreed. Also look for red wave in 2018 on the heels of the Tax Reform Bump.

There. Is. No. Tax. Reform. Bump. You. F***ing. Moron.

Don't feed the trolls.  Just ignore him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Trump has hit bottom. If he gets Obamacare finally repealed/replaced and real spending cuts (not holding my breath there) done in the first half of 2018, prepare for 50-60% approval.

Not holding your breath is a sound idea.  Neither of those has a chance of passing.

It also isn't in line with why people disapprove of Trump. It's not policy-related. On top of that, America isn't currently clamoring for cuts to social programs or crappier healthcare. Even if Trump's intense character deficits, perceived corruption and generally dishonest nature weren't turning so many people against him, I don't get why chronically unpopular policy proposals would suddenly right the ship.

I'm saying a middle 20% or so that don't hate him (or like/love him) will shift his way if those things get done, all just because he'll be "getting stuff done" and appear to be finally "draining the swamp". 

How would passing a historically unpopular healthcare bill improve his approval ratings by 20 points??

Ask Obama. More the spending cuts and HOW healthcare is reformed too.  This really isn't a bold prediction.

You think Obama got a 20-point bump from passing ACA (or, well, ever?)  Go look at his Gallup approval history.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 12/27

Approve 38
Disapprove 56

No change from the previous day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump has been the best for the democrat party. We would have never gotten Doug Jones + 1.7 without Trump. I strongly approve of Trump

A 3 year senate seat for an 8 year Presidency is an interesting trade. I approve!

AL-SEN wasn't the only election that will be affected by Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sucks that Rasmussen is the only other daily tracker other than Gallup. And they are using a likely voter screen so its always going to be higher than Gallup whose doing adults. So many pollsters out there its crazy only two are tracking JA every day.

Ipsos/Reuters also has a daily tracker here.  They use a 5-day rolling average and update the results every 5 days or so (and that's what gets used in polling averages), but you can see the daily values for the 5-day roll at that site.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 12/28

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

He went back down to 45% in today's Ras.

[GeorgiaModerate]

He went back down to 45% in today's Ras.

Rasmussen is junk regardless.

Definitely.  I just thought it was amusing that he made such a big deal of hitting 46% only to decline the next day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I must have wandered into the wrong thread.  I thought this one was about Trump's approval ratings.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 12/29

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Dec 24-28, 1519 RV

Approve 37 (nc)
Disapprove 58 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fun fact though, Obama's numbers in Gallup always seemed to improve around Christmas.

http://news.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx?utm_source=link_newsv9&utm_campaign=item_201617&utm_medium=copy

I believe this was true for (at least some) other Presidents too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We hear what you say, but we don't care anymore.

Yes, it is clear. Kindly remove yourself from the political process so that the people who actually care can have a bigger say.

The (undoubtedly true) fact that there's a sizable fraction of the country who don't care is something that needs to be shouted to the hills, to ensure that it's recognized by the (hopefully larger) fraction who do care about things like decency, integrity, and principle in government.  Ideally, that will motivate the latter group to get out and vote.  I'm generally not one for dramatic statements, but the future of this country literally turns on whether they do or not.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What the hell are we supposed to do now!? /s

I suppose we could start tracking Rasmussen daily, at least on weekdays (they don't do weekends or holidays).  Today's is 44 (-1) / 54 (+1).

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is a disaster! How can Gallup take the daily updates away from us ? What else am I supposed to obsess over?

<whispering "I know it'll never be the same.  The magic is gone.  But as a pale memory of the real thing...">

Ras

Ipsos/Reuters

[GeorgiaModerate]

F**k. http://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/224801/changes-presidential-job-approval-tracking-reporting.aspx?g_source=link_newsv9&g_campaign=item_203207&g_medium=copy

Thank god. You all need to get a life and take a Xanax. Nobody sane gives a f**k whether Trump's approval was -3 or +2 on a particular day, which by the way IS MOSTLY STATISTICAL NOISE ANYWAY.

Agreed. So when does the weekly poll average get released?!

Gallup's new weekly average?  Mondays at 1pm ET.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lucid weekly opinion survey, Jan 3, 929 adults

Approve 37 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (-4)

[GeorgiaModerate]

So long, holiday bump. So long.

Gallup 1/7 (Weekly poll)

Approve: 37 (-2)

Disapprove: 58 (+3)

-21

Some of it is likely post-holiday reversion, but the Wolff book is probably also a factor.