VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can we lock this thread until Election Day

Don't tempt me.

The GA-06 thread was worse, and we survived that one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Didn't Utter Panic and Doom break up during the late 80's?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

There is no new polls of decent quality for virginia

Wason Center (CNU) is supposed to have one out today or tomorrow, but I've been watching for it and haven't seen it yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

A colleague of mine lives in Virginia, and I asked him the other day who was going to win.  He responded "I don't know, but either way Virginia is going to lose."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll who looks stupid now LOL.

Punctuation would help, unless you actually meant "a troll who looks stupid."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Average after Gravis release:

Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie
Polling Company: G+2

Average: N + 0.9

I will say that I'm disappointed that the last five polls are all from mediocre companies. Hopefully we actually get polls from CNU, Siena, and Monmouth before the election.

I'm fairly sure that both CNU and Monmouth will have one more poll.

EDIT: Monmouth's is coming Monday.  I thought CNU would be out today, or maybe even yesterday, but can't find confirmation of this.  UPDATE: Upshot/Siena will be out at 8am tomorrow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Long thread on early voting from Michael McDonald: https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/926592078280318977.  Some excerpts:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

At this point, the kind of event that would return the Democrats to federal power (and control of 20+ states) would result in a double digit PV win anyway, so it's not this even matters.  Clinton would have done better with national EV-by-CD than WTA by state, and even more so if Justice Kennedy gets involved in the next redistricting like most expect him to.  It's just egging the Dems on more to change the rules in their favor the next time the get the chance.  Remember, it's likely that the hard left's only regret from the Obama years is not packing SCOTUS in 2009 so that they could unilaterally draw the maps in 2011 and throw out the EC in 2016.

How do you propose to throw out the EC without a constitutional amendment?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Real clear politics has northam up only 1.2 points.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html#polls

Look who is right after being made fun of trolled look who is is right.

It's a little early to be claiming victory.

[GeorgiaModerate]

As of right now (8:45am ET) on PredictIt

(Northam at .60, Gillespie at .41)

In other words...people betting money on this race still believe Northam will win.

That's narrowed a lot in a short time, though.  Gillespie was in the .25-.28 range a week or so ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Polling seems to be converging around Northam +3.