Trump's only path to victory is Nevada, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona.
That's 5 tossups with 2 of them he's ahead, so say, 60/40 in AZ and 52/48 in North Carolina. Florida is 40/60, Nevada is 45-55, and Colorado is now 40-60. I put his winning chance down to about 3 percent.
On the whole I like your analysis, but two things:
1. These aren't independent events. I agree that Trump is the underdog in Colorado (if anything, I think your 40% is overly generous to him) -- but
if he manages to win it, there would likely have been national movement such that his probability of winning the other states is considerably higher than shown.
2. There's an uncertainty factor that decreases as the election gets closer. If these are the probabilities in those states on Nov. 7, then I agree that Trump's chances are minuscule. But if they're the probabilities
today, his chances are higher (10%? 15? 20?) because there's time for him to make up some ground. Stuart Rothenberg once said, when someone asked him who would win if the election was today: "Nobody. Because there is no election today." This is worth keeping in mind.
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