CBS/NYT National: Clinton +6/+4

[GeorgiaModerate]

No way that's accurate if Clinton is up 11 in CO, 5 in FL, etc.

Expecting all the polls to be in some kind of lockstep with each other is simply ridiculous.  The polls are conducted by different pollsters -- which means different methodologies and models -- over possibly different time periods.  And even if they were all by the SAME pollster, it would be normal for the polls to vary somewhat around the mean.  It's more normal than all of them clustering together! 

None of these results are inconsistent with a Clinton lead of 4 points (+/-1) at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The black voter crosstab is bullsh**t.

I can't get to the original results right now, but with a total sample of 1501 this subsample is probably in the 250-300 range, so the subsample MOE is going to be quite large.

[GeorgiaModerate]

No way do third parties get over 10% combined in the final result. I think it could be important which way those voters break in the end. Or do they just become non-factors with half of them staying home?

All of the above.  My (purely unscientific) guess is that those responding for Johnson will probably break about evenly between Clinton, Trump, staying with Johnson, or staying home.  The Stein respondents will likely have a lower percentage going to Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It does appear that Post-Debate and Pre-Taxgate national polls that Clinton is leading by somewhere close to 4 points in a 4-Way and 5-6 in a 2-Way.

This does NOT mean that "swing states" will move as dramatically, when one considers "Deep Blue" and "Deep Red" states like California, New York, Mass, Texas, Tennessee, etc will counterbalance a bit, but if Clinton is starting to consolidate Millennials in Atlas Red States, her national numbers will be overstated although there might only be a shift in 2-3 points in places like OH, PA, WI, etc....

Regardless, this is starting to look currently alot more like a Obama-Romney recap, with NC and IA possibly shifting places, along with OH () and possibly GA or AZ on the Dem side depending on national margins and favorable demographic changes.

For a good article on Ohio, check out the new Crystal Ball article "Why Trump Will Do Better in Ohio Than He Does Nationally". (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/)