Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who do you think is most likely to win the General... Abrams or whoever wins the Repub primary... or does it differ depending on who win wins the runoff?

Also- do you think the Lt Gov election will have the same outcome as the Governor's race (regarding which party wins)?

I originally thought Evans would be the stronger Democratic candidate (and voted for her in the primary), but I've come around to the view that Abrams is doing exactly what she needs to do to maximize her chances of winning.  It's still a fairly heavy lift for any Democratic candidate, though, and right after the primary I thought that the race would be Lean R with Cagle, Tossup with Kemp.  However, with everything that's come out against Cagle, I now think he's the weaker R candidate, so I'll call Abrams v Cagle Tilt D, with Abrams v Kemp still a total Tossup.

Can't comment on the LG race as I haven't paid it that much attention (it gets virtually none in the local media).

[GeorgiaModerate]

There’s a run off debate happening rn.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/2-gop-candidates-for-governor-to-debate-on-channel-2/787533005

Highlights of the debate: https://www.ajc.com/news/gop-gubernatorial-rivals-trade-jabs-debate-before-runoff/ltl4lhbxCW0yVUpj6CAAOK/

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump endorsed Kemp. It’s gonna be Kemp vs. Abrams in the Fall!

Did he really? Welp, looks like this race is tilt Abrams now.

Yep:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1019664477162278918

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kemp seems like a better candidate than Cagle. Way more likable and presumably less corrupt.

He'd likely be a better governor, too; more of a Deal-like pragmatist than a fire-breathing conservative (despite his cringeworthy TV ads).

[GeorgiaModerate]

At this point it seems like Trump is endorsing people already set to win and doing it close to election time. Not exactly bold.

Yes, and then when they win he claims the credit for it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From a former GOP Congressman (and Cagle supporter):

https://twitter.com/Westmoreland_GA/status/1019951486502146049

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who is going to win the R runoff?

Kemp.  Everything is going his way at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I believe that Abrams has previously talked about a 40-90-25 strategy: get black turnout to be 40% of the electorate and win 90% of it, and win 25% of the rest.  (40% x 90%) + (60% x 25%) = 51%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I believe that Abrams has previously talked about a 40-90-25 strategy: get black turnout to be 40% of the electorate and win 90% of it, and win 25% of the rest.  (40% x 90%) + (60% x 25%) = 51%.

Umm, if Abrams wants to be in the game, she better get more than just 90% of black voters.

OK, it looks like I made a slight but crucial error in memory: please substitute "nonwhite" for "black".  Then Abrams needs to win 25% of whites, have nonwhites make up 40% of the electorate, and win 90% of the latter.  This is much more doable than having a 40% black electorate, which as others have pointed out is not realistic.  My apologies for creating any confusion.  Here's a 538 article that talks about this; I'm also sure that I've seen something in local media about Abrams herself mentioning this formula, but can't find a citation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia election officials knew system had ‘critical vulnerabilities’ before 2016 vote

I expect the Democrats will hammer Kemp on this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They must be seeing it having an effect. I can tell you that in my part of the state, the #1 anti-Abrams talking point I'm hearing is about that (well, other than "guns!" and "Stone Mountain", but even then, it's probably still outpacing those, too).

It never really affected Rubio... I wonder why it is having more of an effect with Abrams.

It may not be as big of an issue in suburban areas as it is elsewhere. Rubio's GA support was heavily concentrated in the suburbs, but besides being a general election, I imagine suburban GA has a better understanding (if not downright sympathy) with the notion of debt being complex and taxes being complicated. On the surface, this strikes me as an issue that would only create headwinds with the poorly-educated (or just poor, who would never find themselves in a situation where they owed $50k to anybody). Though if ads are being ran in the ATL market (I wouldn't know: I'm in Chatt market and we get ignored always because of that), then it must be impacting something.

I've seen the Kemp ad on channel 11 in Atlanta.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Weird story:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Jimmy Carter endorses Stacey Abrams

[GeorgiaModerate]

Jimmy Carter endorses Stacey Abrams

Is Carter still well liked in Georgia?

I believe so.  During the 2014 campaign there was a poll that showed his favorability in the state somewhere in the 60's, I think.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/14/politics/georgia-brian-kemp-voter-data/index.html


Lol

Abrams should be hammering Kemp with this.

Meanwhile, on the paper ballot front: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-election-officials-warn-chaos-judge-orders-paper-ballots/JAmo0aW5C3HE21PIywP7RK/.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just got a robopoll for the governor's race, one of the most extreme push polls I've ever taken.  I'll try to reproduce the questions as best I can recall.  This wording is close but may not be verbatim:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing?

2. Are you likely or not likely to vote in the November general election?

3. Do you plan to vote for Brian Kemp, Republican, or Stacey Abrams, Democrat?

4. Brian Kemp has been a small business owner for 30 years.  In his first business he dug ditches on his own.  He understands the needs of small business owners.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Kemp?

5. Stacey Abrams voted for sanctuary cities that prevent almost all cooperation between law enforcement and immigration authorities.  This could allow dangerous criminals to run loose in our communities.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Abrams?

6. Stacey Abrams wants to raise your taxes, but she doesn't pay her own taxes.  She owes the IRS over $50,000.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Abrams?

7. Stacey Abrams voted to protect sex offenders.  She was one of two representatives to vote against a bill to collect DNA from convicted sex offenders.  She placed the rights of sex offenders over the safety of the community.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Abrams?

The rest were demographic questions.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just got a robopoll for the governor's race, one of the most extreme push polls I've ever taken.  I'll try to reproduce the questions as best I can recall.  This wording is close but may not be verbatim:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing?

2. Are you likely or not likely to vote in the November general election?

3. Do you plan to vote for Brian Kemp, Republican, or Stacey Abrams, Democrat?

4. Brian Kemp has been a small business owner for 30 years.  In his first business he dug ditches on his own.  He understands the needs of small business owners.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Kemp?

5. Stacey Abrams voted for sanctuary cities that prevent almost all cooperation between law enforcement and immigration authorities.  This could allow dangerous criminals to run loose in our communities.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Abrams?

6. Stacey Abrams wants to raise your taxes, but she doesn't pay her own taxes.  She owes the IRS over $50,000.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Abrams?

7. Stacey Abrams voted to protect sex offenders.  She was one of two representatives to vote against a bill to collect DNA from convicted sex offenders.  She placed the rights of sex offenders over the safety of the community.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Abrams?

The rest were demographic questions.

I get calls like that all the time here.

For Georgia?   (Not entirely a joke -- I keep getting robopolls for the GA-7 House race.  On my landline, which is in GA-9.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michael Williams, the horrible state senator from my district, strikes again.  In a CNN interview, he said that using the n-word is wrong, but if Trump used it before he became President "it doesn't mean we need to continue to berate him."

I'm so glad he's leaving office.  (He ran for governor this year, and finished dead last in the GOP primary.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Inside Elections rates this race Likely R and says "Kemp has a strong advantage", and I have no reason to question their expertise.

Inside Elections is probably leaning heavily on Georgia's results in the last few cycles.  However, this year is not like the last few cycles.  Most of the Georgia posters here, some of whom have long experience directly involved in state politics or observing it, believe the race is at most Lean R.  The Abrams campaign is working hard, and with the general headwinds against Republicans this year, she has a real shot at winning.  I'm calling it a Tossup at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Completely meaningless stat for those who like number patterns: when I opened the page for this board just now, this thread had 2679 replies and 206079 views.  (And isn't it past time for a new thread?)