2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[forsythvoter]

My family was for Bush back then and I remember watching the returns with my parents and siblings and being pretty disappointed to see FL called for Gore. I was a teenager back then so didn't feel as invested in the outcome. My parents bought out cake when the call was retracted lol.

Does anyone remember the 2000 election?

I was too young to really care at the time.  I know there are stark and obvious differences between then and now, but was the anxiety about the same or more intense?

I remember the 2000 election. The networks, including CNN which I watched, called Florida for Gore. I was a Gore supporter then and I celebrated. But about 40 minutes later they withdrew the call.

It was more intense.

[forsythvoter]

Here's how I think GA is going to play out:

1) Trump is up 12,764 votes right now, with 50K uncounted votes
2) Biden is going to come out of today's absentee count with a 5-10k lead in Georgia
3) There are about 9k overseas ballots that could arrive in time to be counted tomorrow. My guess is only a fraction of these will utlimately end up being counted
4) There are also like provisional ballots in all counties that will still need to be counted. Just read that Gwinnett alone has 1,000 or so

That's GA in a nutshell.

[forsythvoter]

We pretty know the exact count of what's out in GA. It's about 50K ballots, with Fulton, Chatham, Clayton, Gwinnett and Forsyth making up the bulk of the ballots. Biden needs 65%.

The percentages he's getting right now with the absentee ballots that have already been counted:
Chatham (75%)
Clayton (85%)
Gwinnett (67%)
Forsyth (52%)
Fulton (80%)

Does anyone know what's happening in Georgia?  The margin hasn't tightened much but now it looks like a lot of blue counties have fully reported?  Doesn't seem right on NYT.

[forsythvoter]

PA is really clear at the moment. The only way Trump is going to win is if Trump literally gets a court order mandating that any vote that isn't already counted does not get counted, which would be so unconstitutional it's not even worth debating.

Also, it's ironic that the electoral college this year may end up the exact inverse of 2016 lol if Biden holds AZ and wins GA.

[forsythvoter]

GA Update:
Fulton reported another batch and Trump's lead is +9,511 votes now. It looks like there are about 40K ballots left to count so Biden needs about 62% of the remaining absentees to take the lead. 17K of those are in Chatham and 5-6k are in Clayton, where Biden is getting 75% and 85% of the absentee votes that have already been counted.

[forsythvoter]

Gwinnett still has 7k or so in addition to Clayton, Chatham and Forsyth.

I believe Clayton, Chatham and Forsyth are the only ones needing to report votes. By my estimates that would net Biden another 9-12k votes. He's currently down by 9k. God help us all.

[forsythvoter]

It would be something of an upset if Trump is still leading after the mail-ins are completely counted. Most likely outcome is Biden by 5k votes or so at this point.

Gwinnett still has 7k or so in addition to Clayton, Chatham and Forsyth.

I believe Clayton, Chatham and Forsyth are the only ones needing to report votes. By my estimates that would net Biden another 9-12k votes. He's currently down by 9k. God help us all.

Oh, I wasn't aware. Biden should have this somewhat easily then.

[forsythvoter]

It would be something of an upset if Trump is still leading after the mail-ins are completely counted. Most likely outcome is Biden by 5k votes or so at this point.

Gwinnett still has 7k or so in addition to Clayton, Chatham and Forsyth.

I believe Clayton, Chatham and Forsyth are the only ones needing to report votes. By my estimates that would net Biden another 9-12k votes. He's currently down by 9k. God help us all.

Oh, I wasn't aware. Biden should have this somewhat easily then.

forsythvoter
Can I ask a favor.
When you quote another post and then type a comment/response, please type what you are saying at the bottom of the quote (and not at the top, like you have been doing).

Sure, will do!

[forsythvoter]

DTJr. calls out Ron DeSantis and Josh Hawley, presumably Cruz, Rubio, and Haley as well (thread)

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324453498897932289?ref_src=twsrc%5Ego...

He actually called them out generally with the exception of Hawley and DeSantis.

Trump is already making plans to run in 2024. I can hardly wait (sarcasm)

[forsythvoter]

Trump's lead in GA is now +3,635. Clayton, Gwinnett, Forsyth left to go.

[forsythvoter]

Chatham vote is quite a bit weaker than I expected but Gwinnett and Clayton still have enough to flip the state.

Yeah, the Chatham vote came in 67%-33% vs 73% in the counted votes. Still, it's enough that Biden likely will carry the state by 2-3K votes.

[forsythvoter]

Did Chatham completely update though? Was that all of it?

Though isn't there still like ~30K total out with Trump only up 3.5K?

GA SOS said there were 36K votes. Chatham was 17K of this. The remaining 19K are mostly if not entirely in Clayton, Gwinnett and Forsyth

Gwinnet will likely go 2-1 Biden and Forsyth will likely be a wash. Clayton is the big problem for Trump.

[forsythvoter]

Did Biden hit his benchmark in Chatham?

He got 67% and needed 65% so in that sense yes. However, it was lower than what I think most were expecting (around 73%).

[forsythvoter]

Re. GA: It seems like Clayton still has about 6k votes left. Biden will net about 4K in margin from this county and then it will come down to Gwinnett (7k) and Forsyth (4k). Cobb also has about 700 more ballots.

[forsythvoter]

Re. GA: It seems like Clayton still has about 6k votes left. Biden will net about 4K in margin from this county and then it will come down to Gwinnett (7k) and Forsyth (4k). Cobb also has about 700 more ballots.

seems like Biden still on track for a 5-10k win

I think he's on track for a 2-3k win right now

[forsythvoter]

Trump's lead in GA is now +3,635. Clayton, Gwinnett, Forsyth left to go.

Forsyth just reported and Biden netted 159 votes. Trump's lead is now +3,486. Clayton, Gwinnett plus a few hundred left in Cobb to go.

Biden needs about 62% of the mail in votes from these counties to take the lead. He almost certainly will get that given Clayton is a huge chunk of the remaining vote.

[forsythvoter]

Isn't this not true? Isn't there stuff out in Cobb and Gwinnett?

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324510129580990464

Looks like just Gwinnet, Clayton, Floyd, and Taylor.  

Cobb is done counting I guess?

Think there's a bit more than this that is out. GA SOS said 36K ballots so post-Chatham and post-Forsyth, there should be 15K left. Clayton, Floyd and Taylor don't get you anywhere near 15K. I saw Gwinnett and Cobb on an earlier SOS list and while Cobb reported about 900 votes today, Gwinnett has reported nothing so I would assume it's 7K votes are the gap.

GAMod - I think you posted a screenshot from the SOS earlier today. Do you still have that? How many ballots did it say Gwinnett had?

[forsythvoter]

Charlie Gile
@CharlieGileNBC
Here’s the outstanding votes in Georgia, by county (from the SOS’s office):

Clayton 5726
Cobb 700
Floyd 444
Forsyth 4713
Gwinnett 4800
Laurens 1797
Taylor 456

Total 18,936

If that's true, Biden has additional breathing room.

Biden has a pretty good chance then. Here's how the existing absentee ballots in each county have trended:


Clayton 5726 (85% Biden)
Cobb 700 (64% Biden)
Floyd 444 (51% Biden)
Forsyth 4713 (52% Biden)
Gwinnett 4800 (66% Biden)
Laurens 1797 (57% Biden)
Taylor 456 (61%Biden)

Total 18,936

Basically, Clayton alone would erase Trump's margin and then some. The other counties will likely net Biden 2-3K votes so my projection stands.

[forsythvoter]

Is the 9k purely military? Or 9k military and expats. Because there's a BIG difference.

I doubt the state is going to end up counting more than 2-3k of those ballots since this is just the amount out but they only have until tomorrow to arrive. It includes both military and expats. Also, in GA, the military vote is heavily AA, so probably doesn't lean strongly one way or another.

The provisional ballots may matter more - Gwinnett alone has 1k of them. In a typical election, they lean pretty strongly Democratic.

[forsythvoter]

Is the 9k purely military? Or 9k military and expats. Because there's a BIG difference.

I doubt the state is going to end up counting more than 2-3k of those ballots since this is just the amount out but they only have until tomorrow to arrive. It includes both military and expats. Also, in GA, the military vote is heavily AA, so probably doesn't lean strongly one way or another.

The provisional ballots may matter more - Gwinnett alone has 1k of them. In a typical election, they lean pretty strongly Democratic.

You've been killing it, Forsyth.  Keep it up!

Thanks! Just trying to make sure we have all the facts

[forsythvoter]

Is the 9k purely military? Or 9k military and expats. Because there's a BIG difference.

I doubt the state is going to end up counting more than 2-3k of those ballots since this is just the amount out but they only have until tomorrow to arrive. It includes both military and expats. Also, in GA, the military vote is heavily AA, so probably doesn't lean strongly one way or another.

The provisional ballots may matter more - Gwinnett alone has 1k of them. In a typical election, they lean pretty strongly Democratic.

You've been killing it, Forsyth.  Keep it up!

Thanks! Just trying to make sure we have all the facts

Carrying on the Forsyth County tradition.

Yep. And part of the "blueing" of Forsyth County

[forsythvoter]

Assuming Biden wins PA, is a recount in GA still likely to happen

Depends on how close it is and how petty the Trump campaign wants to be, assuming they end up behind.

I have a feeling Trump is not going to take the loss of GA very well, given his obsession with MN this cycle. Instead of flipping a reliably Dem state, turns out he might have ended up flipping a reliably Rep state D.

[forsythvoter]

Trump is now only ahead by 2,497 votes in GA

Do we know where these latest ballots came from?

Yes, Clayton reported 1.3k votes (out of their 5.7k ballots). It was 88% Biden

[forsythvoter]

Trump is now only ahead by 2,497 votes in GA

Do we know where these latest ballots came from?

Yes, Clayton reported 1.3k votes (out of their 5.7k ballots). It was 88% Biden

Looks like Clayton is going to come in tonight. We'll likely see the first Biden lead when they fully report in.

[forsythvoter]

In AZ, how many ballots are left in each county?