2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[forsythvoter]

Interesting - Dems are holding up surprisingly well among election day voters today. Was thinking Reps would be up at least 200K at this point given their registration advantage. Given higher R crossover voting + NPAs leaning Dems, Biden is still very much in contention to win the state.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323714894143827975

[forsythvoter]

I'm with GA Moderate in terms of margin and think something closer to 65-35 is what I woud expect. That said, I would be excited to see this level of repudiation of Trump in the (pre-Trump) heart of Republican GA.

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

https://www.ourprogress.org/president/georgia

Forsyth was Trump 70.6 - 23.7 - 5.7 in 2016.  

60-40 would be stunning and perhaps indicative of the type of shift coming in Other suburbs (Montgomery 👀) I don’t think ForsythVoter even expected this.

That'd be a 26 point swing in Biden's favor. That's a statewide win.

[forsythvoter]

Yikes, If rural Indiana is swinging Biden by that much, just wait for the suburbs

[forsythvoter]

I don't know how others feel but as a Biden voter, I am feeling a sigh of relief that we aren't seeing Biden melt down in the rural areas and they are actually swinging Democratic by much more than I would have expected!

[forsythvoter]

FL is actually looking decent for Biden. Outside of MD, Biden is getting good swings in the I-4 corridor. And even if Trump squeaks out FL, this is a good sign for Biden in other states.

FL is already in bag...

[forsythvoter]

Well it looks like we are in for a long night. Settle in folks

[forsythvoter]

Just noticing North Carolina is looking really good for Biden. The swings in the urban and suburban counties are massive.

[forsythvoter]

There's only like 15% or left in these big urban counties in NC, so not much potential to chip away at the margins there. They will end with some very large Biden swings.

Rust Belt is hard to say because don't know mix of early/mail votes.

[forsythvoter]

As more of the vote is coming in, it actually is looking like Biden is in good position to win NC, with GA likely to be quite close. Biden is getting the swings he needs in metro ATL and most of the vote reporting so far is rural GA, with most metro ATL counties lagging behind the statewide average.

[forsythvoter]

I'm just looking at swings so maybe the networks know something I don't?

As more of the vote is coming in, it actually is looking like Biden is in good position to win NC, with GA likely to be quite close. Biden is getting the swings he needs in metro ATL and most of the vote reporting so far is rural GA, with most metro ATL counties lagging behind the statewide average.

So then why does the needle give Biden virtually no chance in GA?

I'm not saying you're wrong, but something isn't adding up.

[forsythvoter]

The Hispanic swings tonight make me think NV is very much in play for Trump. Something to keep an eye on.

[forsythvoter]

Biden's Midwest firewall still seems to beholding. The swings in the Midwest are actually pretty good to him, especially in the urban and suburban areas. If those are election day only numbers for MI, then MI is looking good for Biden. If they are replicated in OH, OH will be pretty close.

The Rust Belt strategy might have been the right one after all. Not inconceivable, that he gets his trio but loses NV.

[forsythvoter]

Whoa, NC is actually looking like a Biden win.

[forsythvoter]

Explain? Most of the remaining vote is now in the urban and suburban counties and Biden is still up. The rurals are almost all in except the NE black belt counties.

Whoa, NC is actually looking like a Biden win.

No.

[forsythvoter]

Yeah, nvm, looking at wrong % of total vote. Calculus is basically can Biden lose Union and Johnston by less than 50K votes combined.

Explain? Most of the remaining vote is now in the urban and suburban counties and Biden is still up. The rurals are almost all in except the NE black belt counties.

Whoa, NC is actually looking like a Biden win.

No.

I thought Union was heavily outstanding tho?

[forsythvoter]

This is looking like a repeat of 2016, with rurals swinging even further R and metro areas swinging even more D. Question is which trend outweighs the other.

[forsythvoter]

Union is in and Biden is still up 25K votes in NC. He could actually win this state on the metro swing.

[forsythvoter]

NYT map

Union is in and Biden is still up 25K votes in NC. He could actually win this state on the metro swing.

Where are you getting this from? I don't see that anywhere.

[forsythvoter]

All the networks should be talking about NC right now. It's definitely heading down the wire, but the votes are there for Biden, unless that last batch of votes from Wake, Durham and Orange are unexpectedly R.

[forsythvoter]

The Hispanic swings don't seem to be extending into NM and CO. Biden may keep NV after all.

[forsythvoter]

Arizona is looking like a likely flip. Biden may actually win this thing after all.

That said, the rural swings to Trump are something to behold. Polls definitely missed this.

[forsythvoter]

I think GA is likely Trump, but the votes are still there for a Biden win. If you look at the metro ATL swings in Cherokee and Fayette, they are enough to give him the state if replicated in the partially reporting counties.

georgia is more disappointing than fl for dems

[forsythvoter]

Dekalb, Fulton, Clayton, Cobb, Gwinnett still have lots of vote. Easily a 300K+ D margin left in those counties alone.

georgia is more disappointing than fl for dems

Shocked. Absolutely shocked

ga may actually swing R??

[forsythvoter]

Pennsylvania is actually looking decent now for Biden. The swings in the close to completed rural counties are a few percentage points in Biden's direction and I presume the suburbs will swing massively to Biden once they are all in.

[forsythvoter]

None of the Wisconsin early vote is in except Dane. We're seeing the election day vote right now