2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[forsythvoter]

With all the attention being put on FL, I was thinking the same thing. It wouldn't totally surprise me if Trump pulled off a narrow FL win only to be shocked by one of GA, NC or TX flipping to Biden.

Lol imagine if Biden wins Texas and loses Florida

[forsythvoter]

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40

It just is not possible that a breakdown of 40D, 30R, 30 other gives results of 61 Biden, 36 trump, 2 third party.

You're overlooking the fact that an R registration does not automatically mean a vote for Trump.  Neither does a D registration automatically mean one for Biden, of course; but I think it's a safe bet that R-voters-for-Biden will be a much larger group than D-voters-for-Trump.

I'm not overlooking anything. Give me the math that can translate the actual voting data into CBS poll results.

This is just off the top of my head (I'm not going to search through the NYT crosstabs), but a plausible breakdown is:

40% D who vote 95% for Biden, 5% for Trump
30% R who vote 90% for Trump, 10% for Biden
30% other who vote 65% for Biden, 25% for Trump, 10% for a third party

The above breakdowns are consistent with numerous polls, and get you very close to a 61-36-2 Biden result.

EDIT: Fixed a couple of swapped numbers.

[forsythvoter]

The Dem numbers look a little to Biden friendly but the Republican and Independent numbers seem plausible. If you assume Biden is winning Ds 95-5, it cuts the early vote advantage from 24% to 20%.

I would actually say more than 50% of FL has already early voted so the 45% is too low. Assuming turnout is around 10M to 10.5M (vs. 9.4M last time), we already have 5.6M or so votes cast, which is about 53%.

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40


That's not possible.
Plus, they have 45% of people already voted and we know that's not true.

You know what this looks like to me? As evidence of a huge non-response bias effect.

[forsythvoter]

I think turnout will be in the 10M - 10.5M range. If 10M, there are 4.3M votes ballots outstanding and Trump would need to win them by 58%-42% to win (including the remaining outstanding VBM ballots of which there are still a good number). If 10.5M, Trump would need to win the remaining votes by 56% - 44% or better to win.

Interesting link - Bloomberg's data company estimates Biden is up by 11 in Florida with modeled vote so far - or over 600k votes.

https://www.hawkfish.us/early-vote-florida/fl-102520

that looks good for trump imo with the remaining votes outstanding for him to move the needle based on this

I don't think everyone in the yet to vote will be voting as thereigjt be atleast 1 to 2 million of those who will be abstaining

[forsythvoter]

Indies in Western states generally lean pretty heavily Democratic. I think in 2016, Sinema won the county by 3 even with a R+6 registration gap in the voting population.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1320839567516160001

Any idea how independents will be voting there?  I'd assume they lean Democrat but you never know.

[forsythvoter]

Interesting, I would have thought the Indy vote was more D than that based on Sinema's overall 2% statewide win. I guess this means that that there is more crossover voting by Rs than by Ds in AZ, given the traditional R registration advantage.

Any idea how independents will be voting there?  I'd assume they lean Democrat but you never know.

Based on exit polls, Trump & Sinema won independents by 3%. Trump & McSally also both got 47%

[forsythvoter]

Haha, FL always makes me chuckle. Feels like every election, both sides argue the early vote is favorable to them and it always ends up about 50/50. Bottom line is its a very complex states with a lot of constituencies that don't all move in unison, so you can always find reasons to be optimistic / pessimistic no matter which side you're on.

[forsythvoter]

I was intrigued so I went to TargetSmart's website and they have this pretty cool tool that compares the modeled party vote across years. The Targetsmart numbers actually look pretty promising for Dems in GA, when taken in context:

Modeled Party 2016                        2018                        2020
Democrat        718,742 (41.8%) 658,792 (43.7%) 1,203,359 (44.3%)
Republican        913,709 (53.1%) 772,742 (51.2%) 1,330,288 (48.9%)
Unaffiliated 87,522 (5.1%)        77,461 (5.1%)        185,093 (6.8%)
Total                1,719,973                1,508,995                2,718,740

In 2016, when Trump won the state by 5%, Republicans had a 11.3% advantage in the early vote by party.

In 2018 when Kemp won by 1.4%, Republicans had a 7.5% advantage in the modeled early vote by party. So Republicans tended to underperform in the final tally by about 6%.

This year, the Republican modeled early vote by party advantage is...4.6%. I'll let everyone draw their own conclusions from this.

[forsythvoter]

Excited to report that Wife and I voted today right before the polls closed in GA! Local media is reporting lines are getting longer all over metro ATL as the early voting window closes, so turnout here is probably only going to accelerate over the next few days.

[forsythvoter]

I voted Ossoff and Loeffler (I expect a runoff and suspect she's more of a fiscal conservative vs. Collins being a social conservative so prefer her in a runoff. However if she continues to veer towards Trumpism in the runoff, I am very much willing to switch my vote to Warnock).

Frankly I was leaning Perdue until his Kamala comment so Ossoff was a bit of a last minute change. I hope I made the right call on this one.

Excited to report that Wife and I voted today right before the polls closed in GA! Local media is reporting lines are getting longer all over metro ATL as the early voting window closes, so turnout here is probably only going to accelerate over the next few days.

Awesome! How did you decide to vote on Senate, if you care to share?

[forsythvoter]

Appreciate it! The downballot choices were really tough this year. I guess that's why I'm an Independent haha.

I voted Ossoff and Loeffler (I expect a runoff and suspect she's more of a fiscal conservative vs. Collins being a social conservative so prefer her in a runoff. However if she continues to veer towards Trumpism in the runoff, I am very much willing to switch my vote to Warnock).

Frankly I was leaning Perdue until his Kamala comment so Ossoff was a bit of a last minute change. I hope I made the right call on this one.

Excited to report that Wife and I voted today right before the polls closed in GA! Local media is reporting lines are getting longer all over metro ATL as the early voting window closes, so turnout here is probably only going to accelerate over the next few days.

Awesome! How did you decide to vote on Senate, if you care to share?

Not gonna see many Ossoff/Loeffler voters.  I respect you for sticking to your beliefs/values!

[forsythvoter]

She has a bright future ahead of her. I remember hearing about her win in 2018 and thinking the voters were crazy to throw out an incument in favor of someone with no experience. Impressed that she was able to do all of this without any experience at the role. I've also seen some stories on her taking a leadership role in trying to managing the COVID response so that hospitals weren't so overwhlemed in the Houston area. Really impressive.

I'll just put it here.

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1322245799682711553

Maricopa County electing a Democrat County Recoder -- and Arizona electing Hobbs Secretary of State -- were also huge. These races do matter.

[forsythvoter]

If a voter sent in their ballot by the mail, but it hasn't arrived by election Day, can they go to the polls and cast an in-person vote that overrides their mail-in vote? Or this does depend on state?

A judge has ordered that local election officials go to the post office(s) and pick up the ballots themselves.

https://twitter.com/ArmandoNDK/status/1322259136499879939?s=20
We'll have to see if this survives appeal.

In 2019 this would have been a funny joke but in 2020 I don't doubt Republicans would try to appeal this.  The GOP should be put on the US terrorist watch list.

[forsythvoter]

Polls are also showing much higher cross-over by Rs for Biden than Ds for Trump, which could negate any R registration advantage. If Biden wins 95% of Ds and 10% of Republicans, Biden would win 583K-548K (51%-48%) even without Indies factored in.

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

Biden will win 'Other' voters by a whole hell of a lot more than 10%

[forsythvoter]

I think the Sinema race is a good benchmark. She won Maricopa by 3% (and the whole state by 2%) even though registration was +6R. I would guess the Republican registration gap would probably need to be around +8 or so in Maricopa for Trump to win.

Polls are also showing much higher cross-over by Rs for Biden than Ds for Trump, which could negate any R registration advantage. If Biden wins 95% of Ds and 10% of Republicans, Biden would win 583K-548K (51%-48%) even without Indies factored in.

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

Biden will win 'Other' voters by a whole hell of a lot more than 10%

interesting, so how much of a margin do you think reps need in maricopa to be competitive statewide?

[forsythvoter]

I think Rs in PA (and NC) overreached in trying to get the late arriving ballots canceled. It's basically caused mass paranoia among all the Ds to return their ballots sooner or via drop box, meaning that the remaining absentees might actually tilt Republican by election night.

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

That's return rate of the 18-24s who requested VBM ballots, not their overall turnout.  They're waiting until the last minute, which could be fatal in PA.

Or, they're voting in person because they don't trust the postal service.

PA vote is only around 35% or so of 2016's total, sounds more like a lot of ballots simply won't arrive on time.

[forsythvoter]

This is a bizarre lawsuit. Why would the TX Supreme Court uphold throwing out 100K votes from a method that they ruled to allow? All this is going to do is drive up Democratic turnout and anger Indies who just want all votes counted.

[forsythvoter]

Yeah, this area is growing like wildfire. It wasn't that long ago when Windermere was considered the boonies. I'm willing to bet the newer residents vote considerably more D than the older ones, if my neighborhood is any indication.

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

As a resident of Forsyth County, I'll point out that that increase in turnout almost exactly matches the county's population growth during the same period (estimated 220K in 2016 to 252K in 2020).

[forsythvoter]

I think FL is clearly headed for a close finish, but I'm really skeptical there are too many voters left to vote on election day in FL (and many other states).  I think it's going to come down to NPAs.

I think turnout in FL will probably be somewhere around 10.5-11M. If 9M have already voted by election day, that leaves 1.5-2M voters left. If Ds enter election day with a 100K vote edge, and let's say Rs have a 15 point edge among the voting population on election day (some polls show it much closer, but lets assume). Rs will net 200-300K votes on election day itself.

This means that Rs will be 100-200K votes ahead in partisan identification after all this is said and done (which wouldn't be that shocking given that's about their partisan advantage in the overall electorate and both parties are turning out at about the same level). There will probably be 3M or so NPA ballots, so Biden would either have to win NPAs by 5-7 points (polls show him up by varying amounts), or get a higher crossover by Rs than Trump gets among Ds (polls have shown this, especially among older white seniors).

[forsythvoter]

Forsyth's new voters in all likelihood lean heavily D - would be surprised if they were even 50-50. As you'll see below, the county's population growth has almost all been to the benefit of Ds over the last decade. It's a combination of new transplants tending to lean far more Democratic than the older residents and a good chunk of moderate voters that used to vote mostly Republican starting to vote more Democratic in the Trump era.

Forsyth 2012: Romney 65K, Obama 14K
Forsyth 2016: Trump 69K (+4K), Clinton 23K (+9K)
Forsyth 2018 (Gubernatorial): Kemp 65K (-4K), Abrams 26K (+3K)

Overall 2012-2018 Trend: R (No change), Dems (+12K)

I could see Forsyth County, GA at something like 65-35 on a good night for Biden if these trends continue.

quote author=413 link=topic=407463.msg7710294#msg7710294 date=1604183170 uid=14567]

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

Wow. If Forsyth ends up at ~140% of 2016 turnout on election day and the new voters split 60-40 Biden (both reasonable imo), it'll go Trump 63-Biden 37. Which is crazy.

60-40 Biden for new voters is a lot to ask in Forsyth. Let's say they split 50-50. Still a very favorable swing to Biden.
[/quote]

[forsythvoter]

These numbers though would imply that Biden is already up 10% among those who have already voted (about 900K votes), so even there would have be ~3M election day votes for Trump to win. Most turnout projections seem to be for 1.5-2M election day votes.

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Source on any of this?

Polls have shown that the mail-vote is overwhelmingly D, the early in-person vote strongly R and the remaining election-day vote even stronger R.

Nationally yes, do we have any florida polling on this, florida ev has been quite different and we've had multiple bits on how minority voters do not want to vote by mail and may turnout more so on election day.

We do not, he seems to just be guessing

No, I'm not guessing.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/fl/fl10292020_crosstabs_bgth12.pdf

Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election
Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?

38% mail/absentee ballot
43% early in-person
17% election day in person

VOTING METHOD Q2:

38% mail/absentee ballot (60-25 Biden)
43% early in-person (50-39 Trump)
17% election day in person (62-30 Trump)