NYT/Siena - TX: Trump +4 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 06, 2024, 03:32:55 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  NYT/Siena - TX: Trump +4 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NYT/Siena - TX: Trump +4  (Read 5454 times)
TopShelfGoal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 322


« on: October 26, 2020, 01:06:42 PM »

LOL come on guys stop whining about the poll. This is an A+ pollster. Maybe they are wrong, maybe they are underpolling certain groups, maybe not, the point is that the poll is not inherently bad as some of you are implying or outright stating. Some of you sound like Trump supporters here that throw a fit when they see numbers they don't like.

Why are we all trashing an A+ pollster just because we don’t like the result?

They are showing the same issues they had in 2018 in accurately reaching minority voters.

I mean they are showing Biden +24 among Hispanics, the exit polls had Beto +29, that is well within the margin of error of a smaller subsample. Maybe they still have systemic issues polling these voters like in 2018 or maybe they have made changes to correct that like other polling firms did to correct the systemic issues they had in 2016.
Logged
TopShelfGoal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 322


« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 01:29:18 PM »

When some of these polls consistently show the exact same issue election after election and refuse to do anything about it, it becomes extremely frustrating. The undecideds here a week out are absolutely obscene. And the Hispanic underpolling in Texas has been going for far longer than it should be. This has been going on for 10 years now and nothing has been changed to compensate for it while
Cohn tucked his tail under his legs and decided that not pushing undecideds was the answer because Hillary lost due to a minor fluctuation of about 75k votes combined in 3 states

AFAIK NYT/Siena only started polling starting in 2018, so whether they "refuse" to do anything about their polling misses is pure conjecture. Cohn said on twitter they have tried addressing their polling missing the South West from 2018 which according to him due to turnout assumptions but left the possibility open on TX as that state is seeing historic turnout.

I am inclined to give an A+ pollster the benefit of doubt esp when their numbers aren't even that far out of line of what other pollsters are saying.
Logged
TopShelfGoal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 322


« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2020, 04:32:38 PM »

I just can't fathom how one can have 10% undecided when half the electorate has already voted!

Most of the undecideds are this point are likely not going to vote.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 11 queries.