UK Local Elections 2022

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Sunderland Labour had a good result in a local by-election recently, the first time that's happened for ages. I would assume a further loss of seats is likely, but not that many this time and they ought to keep their majority. But, yes, the electoral travails of that administration are purely local in character. Some of the scandals have been beyond parody.

Can't seem to find those scandals from a google search ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It is, frankly, an obvious lie. The tipping point wards in RBKC have a higher proportion of baronets than they do of social housing.

Didn't labour win the constituency in 2017 and it was pretty marginal in 2019 ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It is, frankly, an obvious lie. The tipping point wards in RBKC have a higher proportion of baronets than they do of social housing.

Didn't labour win the constituency in 2017 and it was pretty marginal in 2019 ?

The areas that now cover RBKC has long mixed ultra-poor and ultra-rich. The Kensington constituency covers the northernmost 75% or so of RBKC; the southern 25% is perhaps as posh as you can find in London. Labour has a massive hill to climb to actually win a majority in RBKC.

Perhaps a majority is out of reach, but couldn't the council got to NOC if the Lib Dems make gains in the rich southern bit ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Yes but it isn't going to be the case there.

While the 2 constituencies covering the council area were relatively poor Conservative results in the 2019 GE (it part due to the Lib Dem targeting), ‘Conservative remainers’ are pretty much the most resilient group of Conservative voters post-2019, and before their recent polling troubles there were actually many returning to the Conservatives (particularly those who had switched to the Lib Dems). Even now, YouGov polling has found Johnson’s approval rating among remainers is down by only about 5% since the 2019 election, while it’s down 20% among leavers.

Beyond the depolarisation around Brexit and Corbyn’s specific ability to alienate cultural conservatives, it’s also hard to imagine Kensington and Chelsea being the area where the Conservatives current woes around Partygate (‘one rule for them’) and the cost of living crisis are going to disproportionately hurt them.

Isn't there a signficant amount of deprivation in Kensington and Chelsea, where both Partygate and Cost of Living could help boost turnout among labour voters ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Sunderland Coming first does skew things, a tad bit dissapointing.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1522358803626401792
After briefing the could make massive gains in Sunderland, not only do the tories fail to do that they make a loose a seat and slip into third place.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

So far Labour's good perfomance seems to be disguised by the fact that most councils that have declares are places where they performed reasonably well pre-2019 but totally collapsed in 2019 so most swings seem pretty minute.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

So far Labour's good perfomance seems to be disguised by the fact that most councils that have declares are places where they performed reasonably well pre-2019 but totally collapsed in 2019 so most swings seem pretty minute.

A few of the early councils (Sunderland, Nuneaton + Bedworth, some provincial towns etc) were already poor results for Labour in 2018 (unpopular councils and genuinely large changes in national political allegiance) and obviously poor at the 2019 general election so their relatively poor result this year was to be expected. As in 2018 we are waiting to see how they do in more 'normal' territory.

When are the results from the normal territories going to start coming in ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It’s official: Labour have control of Westminster.  First time ever.

Sadly not that Westminster.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Bristol has abolished its mayoral system.

Is there a good overview of the different types of british local goverments ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I guess the greens have replaced the Lib Dems as the protest party of choice in many places.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Though a dishonourable mention also to the Labour "insider" who seemed to think Labour's failure to make more progress in places like Bolton is down to "long Corbyn".

Yep, in the pubs of Little Lever and Hulton they think of little else.

(and nothing to do with Labour running one of the most dreadful councils in the country for so long)

The person who coined the term long corbyn should be named and shamed.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Can someone please explain what a unitary authority is and why a bunch of new ones were established ? Wikipedia is just leaving me confused.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

a bit of a sidenote: Has any British MP ever proposed abolishing local goverments all-togther and running things Centrally ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Would it be fair to say that the parties looking happiest after tonight will be the Liberal Democrats ? They seem have improved pretty much everywhere.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I’m still baffled how any Conservative is claiming this isn’t a bad result for them, especially when it’s not as if the Government has a lot of good ideas up it’s sleeve at the moment.

I assume you have seen this morning's Express front page?

Guess the Tory Expectation management of playing up 800 seat losses and loosing Kensington & Chelsea worked.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What happend in Tower Hamlet ? the borough seems to be only around 30 percent Bengali but Aspire seems to have won a majority.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I guess that part of london is filled with people who too well-off to vote labour but too embarrassed to vote Tory.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What happend in Tower Hamlet ? the borough seems to be only around 30 percent Bengali but Aspire seems to have won a majority.

Aspire only needed 37% of the vote to get a majority of seats. The Bengali population may only be about 1/3 of the borough, but it has very high turnout in the right circumstances (Tower Hamlets had the highlight turnout in the 2014 mayoral election concurrent EU elections in London, when on paper it should have had one of the lowest). Rahman may also have some sympathy in other Muslim communities (but I certainly can’t see him getting any of the white vote, especially in Canary Wharf).

Regarding the white vote, i'm hearing that apparently he did get some of their votes due to a promise to change some hated traffic regulation.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Jacobin analysis of the UK local elections leaves much to be desired

https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1523664092296269824

The Jacobin praising a corrupt, sectarian ballot-stuffer who ran on giving more freedom to driver is remarkably in character for them and much of the western "new"left.